Total Freefall

Needless to say, the Pirates are now, and have been for the last six weeks in total free fall.  Four times this summer, the ball club was 16 games over .500.  July 28, August 1, August 6, and August 8.  63-47 is the final high point, and since then they have:

• been swept four times (Padres, Brewers, Cubs and Reds)
• have gone 9-23 (.281 winning percentage)
• have hit for a line of .237/.310/.365
• watched their ex-MVP candidate hit .242/.333/.347 with only 2 steals
• went from 2.5GB of the Reds in the NL Central to 14GB
• saw a 3.5 game lead for the 2nd wild card diminish to 2.5GB

What's even more astounding is that last fact.  They are technically still in the playoff race.  In the same time period, St. Louis has only gone 15-17, and the Los Angeles Dodgers have only managed 14-17. The club is now 72-70, only 2 games over .500, and they still have hope of backing into the playoffs because nobody else wants the wild card (except perhaps the 22-10 Phillies or the 21-12 Brewers). 

I really don't believe they'll make the playoffs, as there are now too many teams in the mix, two of them playing great baseball, and two others that have much stronger squads.  Unless Neil Walker comes back tomorrow and hits .500 the rest of the way, they just don't have enough firepower.  We have 11 games against bad teams (Astros, Cubs and Mets) and 9 games against good teams (Brewers, Reds and Braves).  Sadly, I'm becoming less and less sure they're going to finish 82-80.  Back in March, I wrote:

Yes, this is the year the Pirates reach 82.  Actually 83-79.  They'll struggle a bit in April, then turn the jets on in May, June and July.  August will again be a struggle, but then it will come down to the last week of the season.  #81 comes at the Mets on September 27, then we'll all freak out as the Reds come into Pittsburgh, sweep the Bucs, and clinch the NL Central crown.  Just as we're all ready to jump off the Clemente Bridge, wins #82 and #83 come on October 1 and October 3 against the Braves.  Full preview on Opening Day.WINS 83 MVP Andrew McCutchen CY James McDonald

There actually seems to be about a 50/50 chance this happens, which a month ago would have sounded pathetically sad.  But in March, and in September seems wildly optimistic.  I sure hope it does, because the backlash at this collapse has been tough enough to handle.  Imagine if this becomes Season #20?

Beat Em, Bucs!  At least 10 more times this year.