1. Chicago Cubs ... Say what? The Cubs aren't going to win the Central, are they? Well yes, I think they will. And one reason why is that this division is going to be awfully close. The top four teams should all be within 6-8 games of each other. The other reason is because they're totally under the radar, have a pretty underrated pitching staff (now better by attrition - bye Carlos Silva) with Carlos Marmol closing games out, and a solid lineup. Aramis Ramirez will bounce back, Starlin Castro is only going to get better, and if Carlos Pena can hit 40 bombs in Wrigley, look out. Plus I think that new manager Mike Quade can let these guys relax and have fun, something they simply couldn't do under Lou Pinella. Of course they'll get knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, remember these are still the Cubbies.
2. St. Louis Cardinals ... The difference here is the monumental loss of Adam Wainwright for the season. But they still have the best pitcher in the division in Chris Carpenter and the best hitter on the planet in Albert Pujols. Who by the way in a walk year might just club 60 homers while hitting .350 with Matt Holliday as protection in the lineup. I don't think Lance Berkman has much left in the tank, but he shouldn't hurt the team too much while he's on the DL.
3. Cincinnati Reds ... Last year the Reds over achieved big time. Sure, Joey Votto is the real deal and Jay Bruce is almost there, but how much longer can Scott Rolen keep it up? The rotation is still a Dusty Baker disaster waiting to happen, and I keep getting the feeling that Aroldis Chapman is going to be wasted in middle relief for a long time. They're still a good team, don't get me wrong, but they're not the best in the Central either.
4. Milwaukee Brewers ... I'm just not buying the Brewers as the team to win this year, plus they just piss me off with their brand of thuggery baseball. I'm looking at you Princess and Eva. They did a great job in mortgaging their future to pick up Zack Grienke and Shawn Marcum but at the expense of having Carlos Gomez (or shudder Nyjer Morgan) in center field and Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop. And the injuries are already starting to pile up on them. Don't believe the hype.
5. YOUR 2011 PITTSBURGH PIRATES ... My official prediction is a 71-91 record. The 14 game turnaround is based on full seasons of Jose Tabata, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen making his first All-Star Game, and Clint Hurdle showing these guys how not to play .209 baseball on the road. The starting pitching is still going to be bad, but maybe a Rudy Owens or Bryan Morris can step up and show something after Paul Maholm gets traded in July. Plus, the hopes of better days from Charlie Morton and James McDonald should propel the Bucs in the standings over ...
6. Houston Astros ... One of these years, the Astros are actually going to collapse, and this should be it. While they have a couple decent lefty starters in Wandy Rodriguez and J.A. Happ, I just don't buy into Brett Myers as the anchor of the staff. They have already lost their starting catcher Jason Castro for the season and their top two shortstops in Clint Barmes for a couple months and Jeff Keppinger for a month. Michael Bourn is about the only interesting player they have right now.
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