Happy Opening Day Pirate Fans,
Obviously nobody really expects this team to be in the playoff hunt. Even 82 is a pipe dream, but getting close to that isn't a stretch. since all the division foes not playing in St. Louis are weaker than last year, it's only reasonable that the Bucs should claw back up into the middle this year. It remains to be seen if the Great Purge is indeed over, as there is still a catcher, a couple infielders, and a couple starting lefties that could generate interest this summer. But there is a foundation being poured right now, as the front office has attested to:
Obviously nobody really expects this team to be in the playoff hunt. Even 82 is a pipe dream, but getting close to that isn't a stretch. since all the division foes not playing in St. Louis are weaker than last year, it's only reasonable that the Bucs should claw back up into the middle this year. It remains to be seen if the Great Purge is indeed over, as there is still a catcher, a couple infielders, and a couple starting lefties that could generate interest this summer. But there is a foundation being poured right now, as the front office has attested to:
President Frank Connelly: [The atmosphere in spring training] "is much different in terms of the enthusiasm level, the excitement. . . and the feeling by the players that are here that they are part of the future, they are part of this team's long-term future. They are all looking forward to being part of the team that this year turns this franchise around."
Chairman of the Board and Owner Bob Nutting: "Expectations are higher. A good start would be very important. At the same time, I think we are going to see throughout the season additions into the team, I would hope. We're going to start with a strong team ... The expectation is they're going to come out prepared to win, prepared to play hard every single day."
Starting Pitching
1. Zach Duke
2. Ross Ohlendorf
3. Paul Maholm
4. Charlie Morton
5. Daniel McCutchen
In year's past, this has been the Bucs achilles heel but no so this year, as they have a chance to be at least league average if not better. But that is assuming that the defense is at least league average as well, which right now is a BIG IF - this rotation doesn't strike many guys out. Zach Duke has earned the right to take the ball on Opening Day, and seems to have really settled into a groove. Ollie could be due for another step forward. Maholm should be stronger now, hopefully not hiding any injuries again. But the real gem in this group I think will be Charlie Morton. These top 4 have a real shot at winning 10-15 games a piece now that the bullpen is much improved. The 5 spot is a toss up at this point, and Daniel McCutchen deserves his shot after Kevin Hart looked lost in Spring Training. Now granted, there is no true ace in this bunch, but the mantra here is depth depth depth. Remember also that Brad Lincoln (and maybe Donnie Veal) are waiting in the wings. In Kerrigan I trust.
The Bullpen
Octavio Dotel
Joel Hanrahan (DL)
Brendan Donnelly
Evan Meek
Javier Lopez
Jack Taschner
DJ Carrasco
Hayden Penn
The Lineup
1. Aki Iwamura
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Garrett Jones
4. Ryan Doumit
5. Lastings Milledge
6. Jeff Clement
7. Andy LaRoche
8. Pitcher (not a fan of this)
9. Crosby/Cedeno
The biggest question mark of the season has to be the offense. The lineup is a bit thin right now, as nobody really knows yet what we can expect from Jones, Milledge or Clement. Fortunately, April tends to be more of a pitcher's month (pure specualtion on my part rather than actual statistical anaylsis). McCutchen is probably our default All-Star now, and should continue to improve, perhaps even to a .300 average with a bit more speed. Iwamura is league average at best and just seems to be trade fodder. I think Jones will settle in as a .280/20/90 kind of guy which is plenty productive for now. Doumit is a wild card because when he's healthy he's good. But he has to be healthy. In a shortened trial witrh the Bucs last year, Milledge had a decent enough debut. Hopefully with his wrist injury past him he'll regain some of his power stroke. I think he does. Clement's future is certainly in question, but the front office is doing the exact thing they should right now. Give him a shot to succeed, and if he doesn't, then Jones slots in nicely to replace him. It's a win-win proposition (at least for April 2010). LaRoche has probably shown what he can do already, and hopefully it's not leading the team in RBI's again with 64. He's simply a placeholder at this point for Pedro, who should make this lineup much more potent around June 18th against Cleveland at home. What a perfect scenario. The conventional wisdom seems to be that Andy will slot over at 2B. If Iwamura gets traded at the deadline, then that might just work out OK. Hopefully Crosby/Cedeno (take your pick at this point) can at least go .250 with 10 homers and play average defense. I'd rather see Bobby Crosby.
The Bench
Ryan Church
John Raynor
Cedeno/Crosby
Jason Jaramillo
Delwyn Young
Church and Young are good pinch hitters, Raynor is fast, and Andrew's backup. C&C Shortstop Factory and a backup catcher. Tough to get too excited about the bench, sorry.
Conclusion
This is Russell's team now, as there are likely no more summer roster purges, no more excuses. If healthy, it's entirely possible Doumit could be traded with the thought of Jaramillo/Kratz holding down 2011 until Sanchez arrives in 2012. If Lincoln dazzles in his debut (most likely when one of the starters is injured this summer) then it's also entirely possible that Maholm or Duke get moved. Iwamura could be traded when Pedro arrives, as Andy and Delwyn can fight it out for 2B. Church could be moved if/when Tabata arrives. What's promising about these potential moves however are unlike the Bay, Nady, McLouth, Wilson, and Sanchez trades, these would be done because someone is stepping into a role because of potential logjams, rather than creating a hole for prospect depth. The future is here this summer.
Not so Bold Predictions
Wins: 77, 4th place. They won't truly sniff .500 this year, but will improve 15 games on last year's 62-99. The much malingned 19-46 post-trade record at the end of last year is history, as this is now a budding team, not a collection of strangers with no idea of their roles and abilities. Russell saves his job, barely.
Bucs' MVP: Andrew McCutchen. (runner up: Lastings Milledge)
Bucs' CY: Charlie Morton. (runner up: Zach Duke)
Bucs' Breakout: Lastings Milledge. (runner up: Jeff Clement)
Bucs' Rookie: Brad Lincoln. (runner up: Pedro Alvarez)
BEAT 'EM BUCS!
Joel Hanrahan (DL)
Brendan Donnelly
Evan Meek
Javier Lopez
Jack Taschner
DJ Carrasco
Hayden Penn
There has been plenty of turnover in this group, and all for the better. Matt Capps, his bloated ERA, and "Big Bull Rider" is gone. Assuming that Hanrahan is 100%, the back end of the bullpen with Meek looks pretty good. Even if Dotel falters, then there are at least two or three guys that call step into his role. The swing/mid-inning guys are Penn and Carrasco, and a couple lefties in Lopez and Taschner should be fine. I would have rather had Veal as Lopez' lefty pal, but sending him to Indy to start isn't a bad idea.
The Lineup
1. Aki Iwamura
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Garrett Jones
4. Ryan Doumit
5. Lastings Milledge
6. Jeff Clement
7. Andy LaRoche
8. Pitcher (not a fan of this)
9. Crosby/Cedeno
The biggest question mark of the season has to be the offense. The lineup is a bit thin right now, as nobody really knows yet what we can expect from Jones, Milledge or Clement. Fortunately, April tends to be more of a pitcher's month (pure specualtion on my part rather than actual statistical anaylsis). McCutchen is probably our default All-Star now, and should continue to improve, perhaps even to a .300 average with a bit more speed. Iwamura is league average at best and just seems to be trade fodder. I think Jones will settle in as a .280/20/90 kind of guy which is plenty productive for now. Doumit is a wild card because when he's healthy he's good. But he has to be healthy. In a shortened trial witrh the Bucs last year, Milledge had a decent enough debut. Hopefully with his wrist injury past him he'll regain some of his power stroke. I think he does. Clement's future is certainly in question, but the front office is doing the exact thing they should right now. Give him a shot to succeed, and if he doesn't, then Jones slots in nicely to replace him. It's a win-win proposition (at least for April 2010). LaRoche has probably shown what he can do already, and hopefully it's not leading the team in RBI's again with 64. He's simply a placeholder at this point for Pedro, who should make this lineup much more potent around June 18th against Cleveland at home. What a perfect scenario. The conventional wisdom seems to be that Andy will slot over at 2B. If Iwamura gets traded at the deadline, then that might just work out OK. Hopefully Crosby/Cedeno (take your pick at this point) can at least go .250 with 10 homers and play average defense. I'd rather see Bobby Crosby.
The Bench
Ryan Church
John Raynor
Cedeno/Crosby
Jason Jaramillo
Delwyn Young
Church and Young are good pinch hitters, Raynor is fast, and Andrew's backup. C&C Shortstop Factory and a backup catcher. Tough to get too excited about the bench, sorry.
Conclusion
This is Russell's team now, as there are likely no more summer roster purges, no more excuses. If healthy, it's entirely possible Doumit could be traded with the thought of Jaramillo/Kratz holding down 2011 until Sanchez arrives in 2012. If Lincoln dazzles in his debut (most likely when one of the starters is injured this summer) then it's also entirely possible that Maholm or Duke get moved. Iwamura could be traded when Pedro arrives, as Andy and Delwyn can fight it out for 2B. Church could be moved if/when Tabata arrives. What's promising about these potential moves however are unlike the Bay, Nady, McLouth, Wilson, and Sanchez trades, these would be done because someone is stepping into a role because of potential logjams, rather than creating a hole for prospect depth. The future is here this summer.
Not so Bold Predictions
Wins: 77, 4th place. They won't truly sniff .500 this year, but will improve 15 games on last year's 62-99. The much malingned 19-46 post-trade record at the end of last year is history, as this is now a budding team, not a collection of strangers with no idea of their roles and abilities. Russell saves his job, barely.
Bucs' MVP: Andrew McCutchen. (runner up: Lastings Milledge)
Bucs' CY: Charlie Morton. (runner up: Zach Duke)
Bucs' Breakout: Lastings Milledge. (runner up: Jeff Clement)
Bucs' Rookie: Brad Lincoln. (runner up: Pedro Alvarez)
BEAT 'EM BUCS!
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