2010 NL Central Preview

It's that time of year when everyone gets out their crystal balls ... 

The NL Central this year is basically the Cardinals and everyone else.  There used to be a second and third tier of teams, but not so in 2010.  The Cubs and Brewers have come down a bit, the Reds and Bucs have risen a bit, and the Astros are falling like a lead balloon.  I would be shocked if the wild card came out of this division;  aside from the Cardinals, everyone else will probably fall somewhere within the 75-85 win range.  Of course, you know where I hope the Bucs will land ... while a 20 win surge would be extraordinary, it's not completely unrealistic when you look at their direct competition.  So, let's looks at them:

1.  St. Louis Cardinals (2009:  91-71, first place)

This is a true no brainer, as this team is stacked top to bottom.  They could very well win 100 games with a full season of Pujols and Holliday hitting 3-4 and Carpenter and Wainwright leading the rotation.  Their own truly question spot is the rookie Freese at 3B, but something tells me he will do just fine.  As far as I'm concerned, they're right up there with the Phillies, as the NL favorites.  There's nobody in the division even close, barring the unpredictables like injuries.  Prediction:  98-64

2.  Cincinnati Reds (2009:  78-84, fourth place)

Pretty conventional and popular pick this year I know, but to me they're the head of the mid-tier class of teams.  My guess is they win about 85 games, with a late season surge from Volquez.  You know Dusty Baker wouldn't resist throwing him out there in a push for the playoffs.  If fact, I hope for his own sake that Chapman stays in the minors, otherwise a perfectly good your arm might just fall off from overuse.  The lineup looks pretty good too; the addition of Cabrera at shortstop is huge, as now the only lineup holes are the left field rotation and at catcher.  Expect Votto to start garnering MVP votes.  Prediction:  86-76

3.  Milwaukee Brewers (2009:  80-82, third place)

I have absolutely grown to despise this team in the last two years, predominately because of the whining of Eva Ryan Braun and Princess Fielder.  But any team with those guys healthy and productive should be average at least.  The pitching is the obvious achilles heel; after Gallardo and Wolf, it's pretty bleak.  It should make for a lot of 9-8 games in Milwaukee.  And another cause for worry is that Jim Edmonds is actually still in the hunt for playing time.  Yes, the same Jim Edmonds that was last seen hitting .178 for the Padres in 2008.  This is a franchise that missed their window.  Prediction:  82-80

4.  Pittsburgh Pirates (2009:  62-99, sixth place)

I will do a Pirate-specific post later.  Goal is 82-80.  Prediction 77-85

5.  Chicago Cubs (2009:  83-78, second place)

I would be real worried if I was a northsider fan.  In the OF, Soriano is toast, and Byrd is overrated.  Nady had his career year, and Fukudome is average at best.  A lot rides on the rotation, and Lilly won't be ready on opening day.  Dempster might be regressing a bit from his career year of '08, and the bullpen is very thin following the loss of Guzman.  ARam and Lee are the only steadies.  Soto had an awful sophmore slump and is probably due for a correction.  About the best thing I can say is at least Milton Bradley is 1000 miles away.  Trammell might suplant Pinella mid season if the wheels come off.  Prediction 74-88

6.  Houston Astros (2009:  74-88, fifth place)

Old team, no direction, no help in the minors.  Oswalt and Berkman are not the reliable studs they once were.  They have huge holes at SS and C, and 3B/2B aren't exactly locked in.  The lone bright spots are outfielders Bourn and Pence.  It's time for a firesale rebuilding mode, so if they're not competitve at the deadline, they have got to move Oswalt and Berkman while they still have some value.  New comer Brad Mills has is work cut out for him.  Prediction 71-91