Pittsburgh Pirates, 2009 Preview

While it's true that "82" is not a goal of the franchise this year, it has been said repeatedly that losing will not be an acceptable option. Whether heads would roll in that case would remain to be seen, but I don't think that will be a worry. The club as it stands today has every chance to win 82 games. But a lot of things have to fall into place, because management rightly is not going to sacrifice the future 2010/11/12 plans just to win now. Let's examine.

Pitching: This was the obvious achilles heel of the 2008 squad. There were major regressions from both Ian Snell and Tom Gorzellany, and a breakthrough of sorts for Paul Maholm. Entering '09, 1. Paul Maholm is the ace-by-default, and is looking even better in spring training. Beyond that, you need to look at the contributions that new pitching coach Joe Kerrigan is bringing. With an emphasis on basics like throwing strikes, using the inside of the plate etc, it seems like he might actually be helping 2. Ian Snell and 3. Zack Duke who have had very good ST starts. 4. Ross Ohlendorf is starting to look like a viable option (and underdog breakout candidate) with his improved mechanics. Rounding out the rotation is a bit of a mystery, but perhaps 5. Jeff Karstens can keep the spot warm for a hopeful return of Indianapolis Indian Gorzo. The defense should be improved this year as well with a healthy infield, and Jason Bay not manning a huge left field. That bodes well for a staff that doesn't strike many guys out. The end of the bullpen should be good enough with Matt Capps saving games, along with Tyler Yates and John Grabow setting him up. The middle is a bit shaky (walk prone) ... but if you can get 6-7 innings from your starters on a more regular basis, it might not be as scary as you might think.

Hitting: Last year's squad before the trades was one of the best in the NL. Now you look at the lineup, and wonder where the power is. The everyday lineup on April 6 looks like ... 1. Nyjer Morgan, LF. I'm thinking he'll hold onto his job until at least May 1, and maybe longer depending on how well he can get on base. Sadly though, he and Nate may be the only ones on the team capable of manning left field, which ties Manager John Russell's hands. Management really wants to give him a chance to become Juan Pierre, but secretly they don't want to start the free agent clock on Andrew McCutchen, who I think (hope) will be the everyday LF by the end of the year ... 2. Freddy Sanchez, 2B. It appears like Freddy might be returning to his batting champ form, now that he's healthy and motivated to stay in Pitt. If they can get 40 doubles and a .300 average out of the 2 hole, then this team can start scoring runs with ... 3. Nate McLouth, CF. Nate broke out big time last year, with an All-Star selection and a Gold Glove. Aside from stealing more bases, he may have plateaued which is just fine, but I'd like to see him knock some more runs in, and raise his average a bit. Right now he's the star of the team, with his Nico-like blond locks and new contract. He should be an All-Star again come July, perhaps along with teammate ... 4. Ryan Doumit, C. It all comes down to staying healthy and be able to catch 150 games. He's easily one of the top hitting catchers in the league. The switch hitter needs to show more power though, because it can't all come from ... 5. Adam LaRoche, 1B. His slow starts are well advertised, and a worry for sure. However, a good start would be crucial for the Buccos, as it would take pressure off the kids further down the lineup, and it could net the team a huge payoff if (and most likely when) he's shipped off at the trade deadline. Steven Pearce should be the 1B come August 1, assuming he excels in an everyday Indy role. One guy who'll be sad to see Adam go is his brother ... 6. Andy LaRoche, 3B. Look for Andy to breakout in a big way this year, and possibly even move up in the lineup. He has a ton to prove after a miserable injury plagued half season last year, and has been hitting and getting on base very well in ST, and should set the table for ... 7. Brandon Moss, RF. Like Andy, Moss is another guy who had a tough Bucco premiere, but should excel given a chance to play everyday, healthy and with little pressure. He has some hidden power potential, but may be on a short leash, with Craig Monroe and Eric Hinske looking for regular playing time as well ... 8. Jack Wilson, SS rounds put the regular lineup. If Jack can hit .280 with 10 homers and play stellar defense, that's all the team needs. Now, if Brian Bixler is hitting .300 in Indy, then Jack might still go at the deadline. But really, he won't net much.

Etc: The NL Central hasn't improved that much, and in fact it could be argued it's fallen back to the Pirates a bit. The Cubs lost a closer, but replaced him. The Cards will be healthier. The Reds lost some punch in the lineup. The Brewers lost two frontline starters. The Astros were one streak last year away from the cellar. The schedule looks a little better this year, and if they can get off to a modest start (on the road a lot, esp. July) then maybe a run to 82 can be achieved at PNC in the late summer (last 60 games, 36-home, 24-road). Their interleague schedule looks better as well playing the AL Central (home vs DET/CLE/KC, road vs CWS/MIN) and the divisional schedule is more even than '08 (15 CHI, 15 STL, 18 CIN, 15 HOU, 14 MIL). But ultimately success in Pittsburgh this year is going to come down to pride. The 25 guys opening tomorrow in St Louis are tired of hearing about thew "hapless organization" and it's losing ways. They have the collective ability and motivation. Let's watch it happen.

82 is change I can believe in!

National League, West Division

Overview: The NL West should come down to two teams, but the one with the superior staff will win. The Dbacks are just too strong with Webb, Haren and Garland. Signing Manny keeps the Dodgers close, and they may compete for a wild card. The Giants should improve on their 90-loss campaign last year. Colorado and San Diego round out a fairly uninspiring division. 1. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-95 wins) The 1-2-3 punch of the rotation barring injury should be quite formidable all summer. While their offense isn't going to shatter any records, it probably doesn't need to. Losing Dunn and Hudson hurt quite a bit, but Manager Melvin will find someone to step up, just enough. There's still a ton of growth potential in guys like Drew, Upton, Jackson and Young. 2. Los Angeles Dodgers (85-90 wins) Everything about Torre's Dodgers says pick them to win the NL. They have a ton of young hitters in Loney, Ethier and Kemp. They have veteran leadership in (gulp) Manny, and plenty of depth to withstand an injury or two. The only thing I don't think they have is reliable pitching. Billingsley's a stud, and Kershaw should be fine, but any staff depending on maybe Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver and Randy Wolf .... ugh. Plus Choke Torre will run out his boyfriend Tanyon a few too many times. 3. San Francisco Giants (80-85 wins) Much like the Diamondbacks, this is a team with a really good staff - Lincecum, Big Unit, Cain etc, but a pretty weak everyday lineup. If they can get ANY production out of Barry Zito, then they might be able to move a pitcher for some much needed hitting. But until then, it's Bengie Molina, cleanup hitter. Renteria is a good pickup (even if they spent way to much $ on him early in the free agency season) and Rowand needs to step up. 4. Colorado Rockies (65-70 wins) The loss of Matt Holliday is huge, because suddenly they're going to have some trouble scoring runs (on the road that is). While I'm not a big Tavares fan, his departure leaves a huge hole in CF. Unless of course Fowler becomes ROY, then I'm going to look pretty stupid, because they do have the makings of a good staff. Well, after taking Gopher Ball Marquis out of the equation. Seriously, they're still depending on Todd Helton at 1B?

5. San Diego Padres (60-65 wins) After Jake Peavy, the best I can say about this team is they have hands down the coolest logo that I stole off this killer site for my series of division outlooks, which ends here.

National League, Central Division

Overview: Like absolutely every other publication, blog, paper etc - I'm going pick the Cubs to win the division. Although I think the Cardinals and Reds are going to be too close for comfort and will be in the wild-card hunt come September. The Brewers are regressing for sure. The Pirates will (WILL!) be close to 82, and should (SHOULD!) be able to best the Astros and stay out of the cellar. 1. Chicago Cubs (95-100 wins) There are a couple small if's that could be the difference for the 2-time defending division champions (last time that's happened since ... hmm, 1906-8): IF Big Z and Rich Harden can stay healthy all year, and IF Marmol/Gregg can step up into the role of closer. Like most, I have little reason to think 2/3 won't happen (Big Z's star is fading), and they'll be the NL favorites again this year. Oh, and Pinella and Bradley in the same dugout should be fun too ...

2. St. Louis Cardinals (90-95 wins) Like the Chicago White Sox, I hate this team, but somehow they continue to piss me off and be competitive. Carpenter should be back, Pujols should be MVP, and they should have money to spend at the trade deadline. I don't think it'll be enough to catch the Cubs, but it'll be an interesting summer.

3. Cincinnati Reds (90-95 wins) Everyone's '09 darkhorse is mine too. The rotation can be the best in the division (without Dusty's overuse) and Joey Votto is going to be a stud, all-star this year. Along with Jay Bruce, they should be able to pound this year. Only problem is the rest of the lineup. Willy Tavares is a poor man's Juan Pierre, and Keppinger/Gonzalez are easy outs.

4. Milwaukee Brewers (80-85 wins) You simply don't lose CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets and expect anything close to a repeat performance. They rolled the dice last year and lost. Now they're stuck with Jeff Suppan as their ace. They'll hit with Braun and Fielder in the 3-4, but may actually struggle to finish in 4th place. If the Reds are my dark horse, then the Brew Crew is my light pony. And this is great news for ....

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (82 wins) I'll have a more lengthy post before the season starts, but yes, this team can win 82. Andy LaRoche is primed to show why he was an important piece in the Bay trade, Ian Snell and Freddy Sanchez look back to form, and Andrew McCutchen could come up on May 1, and win ROY.

6. Houston Astros (70-75 wins) Last year, fluke. They went 40-20 (!) down the stretch to finish 3rd with 86 wins. At the time they were 46-55, and should have kept pace by winning 74 games. This year they'll prove last year was a fluke. They have one good starter (Oswalt), one massively overpaid/overrated LF (Lee), one steroid junkie (Tejada) and one all-star regular (Berkman). If they can find a taker, Oswalt should be gone at the trading deadline.

National League, East Division

Overview: Another tough division to call, but it's really only between Phily and New York. These 2 teams will be battling it out all summer, but a healthy and productive Chase Utley down the stretch should be the difference. The Marlins and Braves will jockey for 3rd, and it'll be another long season in the nation's capital (for more reasons than one). 1. World Champion Philadelphia Phillies (90-95 wins) They had better hope that King Cole stays healthy. If he misses much of the season, they could be in trouble. I'm guessing he'll be fine, and along will a full season of Joe Blanton, the rotation should hold up. But you gotta wonder how much is left in Jamie Moyer's tank. As always, they'll score plenty of runs in their shoebox ballpark, enough to win at least. I also boldly predict that this is the year Ryan Howard finally breaks the 200K threshold (and probably the 150RBI one too). 2. New York Mets (90-95 wins) Beyond Johan? It's too bad KRod and Putz can't start. John Maine and Oliver Perez are decent, but beyond that there's a lot of wishin' and hopin' for a division contender. Any lineup with Reyes, Wright, Beltran and Delgado will put a scare into you, and will scare the Phils for the better part of the year, until September rolls around. That when this team will crumble as they sadly have in year's past. 3. Florida Marlins (85-90 wins) All you can really say about this team is that they should come in last every stinkin' year, but somehow they put a scare in you. Hanley Ramirez is the BEST player in the league hands down, and Maybin is due for the big break out. The rotation is young and could be impressive. But ... new ballpark + added payroll = consistent success. Ah, Miami.

4. Atlanta Braves (80-85 wins) Any time you have Bobby Cox, you have a chance for winning. But this isn't the team that won a hundred division titles in a row. They may not be as bad as some people think, but I don't think they're that good either. Chipper's a stud, but I expect some regression (and injury). The pitching staff has a lot of potential (especially with rookie Hanson), but the OF is scary bad. Heck, Chipper's BA was higher than Francoeur's SLG! And I think Garret's done .... ouch. 5. Washington Nationals (60-65 wins) Sadly, probably still the worst team in baseball, but they're taking baby steps. Adam Dunn will fill a few seats, but he's sure not going to help them win. The OF has a ton of potential, but they also have some whack jobs. What could possibly keep them out of the cellar is good young pitchers fulfilling their potential. Might be a bit too much to ask for all at once.

American League, West Division

Overview: It as always bugged me that this is only a 4 team division (and that the NL Central has 6 teams). To make it right, move Houston to NL West and Colorado to the AL West. I'm not sure what the problem with this scenario is, but as it is now, the Angels have a distinct advantage as always. Although this year the Athletics should be nipping at their heels. The Rangers and Mariners should fill out a very bland division.

1. Los Angeles Angels (95-100 wins) This very balanced team still without KRod and Teixeira shouldn't have any problems winning this division. A full year of Lackey will help tremendously, and Fuentes should be able to save 40 games without breaking much of a sweat. They have some holes in the lineup for sure, but have the resources to fill them mid season as they see fit. I really thought they'd go after Manny in the offseason, but may look toward Holliday to replace an aging, creaking Vlad.

2. Oakland Athletics (85-90 wins) The A's should be able to hang with the Angels for the better part of the summer, and it may even come down to the last 6 of 9 games when they play each other. Oakland is coming at '09 with a win-now approach, with the additions of Giambi and Holliday. But for them to truly have success this year, they need Chavez to return healthy and consistent (unlikely) and for their young pitching to mature they way they hope (likely). If they struggle though, Holliday will absolutely be moved at the deadline, as there's no way they keep the Boras client for 2010 and beyond.

3. Texas Rangers (75-80 wins) Broken record, all hitting no pitching. Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla do not (never have, never will) constitute a 1-2 rotation for a playoff contender. Until Texas signs a Sheets-project, or any other top notch pitcher, they will never sniff the postseason. Maybe some of the young pitchers will step up, but Texas is a tough place for a rookie pitcher with a poor defense to gain confidence. They sure can slug though, wow.

4. Seattle Mariners (60-65 wins) Nothing daring about saying this team should lose a 100 and be in the cellar, huh? While I think Bedard will regain his form, and with Felix should be a solid 1-2 punch, that's about all Seattle's got going for it. Beltre is all the pop they have, and once again Ichiro is an all-star. But that's about it. In this division, they just can't compete.

American League, Central Division

Overview: This is another tough division to figure out. I think it'll be very close, with 90 wins enough to make it to the playoffs. Ultimately, I think the Twins will eke it out over the Pale Hose, and the Royals will be relevant in September for the first time in a long time. The Indians and Tigers just don't have the pitching to contend. 1. Minnesota Twins (90-95 wins) Two big keys to success this year: Joe Mauer is healthy and Francisco Liriano becomes the next Santana. If either one of these does not happen, then this team very well could finish 3rd or worse. But my money's on their success. Plus, I think they'd like to see the dome go out in style. It'll be odd seeing them play outside in 2010. 2. Chicago White Sox (85-90 wins) OK, I'll admit it. I hate the White Sox. Not sure why, but I do. That's why I figure they'll finish better that I hope. This doesn't seem like a very good team to me, but they'll piss me off and win a lot of games. 3. Kansas City Royals (80-85 wins) Maybe it's the Pirates fan talking, but I like this team as a surprise this year. Maybe it's because I drafted Zack Greinke and Mike Aviles onto my fantasy team. Maybe I just feel sorry for them. But really, they have a lot of good young ballplayers who might just be gelling at the same time. Plus I think Coco Crisp is going to do very well now that he's out of Boston. 4. Cleveland Indians (75-80 wins) It all comes down to pitching in Cleveland this year. They have more than enough offense (with Travis Hafner's return to for), but beyond Cliff Lee it becomes hopefully Carmona, Pavano and ugh. Everything tells me that Lee is bound to regress big time, which is really bad news on the lake, especially with CC in pinstripes. Kerry Wood was a great pickup (if healthy) but he may not get as many chances as they hope. 5. Detroit Tigers (70-75 wins) Sorry Dad, but this team's in trouble I think. Justin Verlander should regain his form, and Edwin Jackson could be a huge pickup, but otherwise this is a softball team in a pitcher's park. Looking at the lineup, there are plenty of big sticks, but Cabrera and Ordonez worry me for some reason. And I think Sheffield's pretty much done after he hits #500. Now, if they can find a couple miracles (say the rebirth of Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman), they very well could be much closer to the top than I think.

American League, East Division

Overview: This should be a really close division for the better part of the summer. I see the Red Sox pulling it out over the Rays in the last few weeks. But the Rays should secure the wild card. The Yankees should fall just short again and the Orioles and Blue Jays will trade for last place all year long.

1. Boston Red Sox (90-95 wins) Top to bottom this team is too strong not to finish first. Their starting pitching is still the best in the division, and could add Penny and Smoltz to the mix. They may not slug it like they used to, but they'll generate plenty of offense. Plus they have enough organizational depth to get whatever they please at the trading deadline (catcher).

2. Tampa Bay Rays (90-95) This team is extremely balanced, with good young pitching, and phenom Price on the cusp of stardom. Pat the Bat helps power up the lineup, which should slug a lot more. Look for Upton and Longoria to explode, but Pena to come back down to earth. I just feel they're going to experience the sophomore slump. They'll contend for years to come though.

3. New York Yankees (85-90) This is a really tough division, and a third place finish really isn't that bad, unless you're the Yankees. AFraud's injury hurts them a lot; Cody Ransom at 3B could be really painful. For the first time in a long time though, pitching will keep them in it. CC should win the Cy, and Wang will bounce back. I'm not sold on Burnett's durability, but Hughes will emerge in his place. What really keeps them out of contention though is a lineup featuring overrated Nady, aging Damon and Matsui, and real question marks in CF, C and maybe 2B.

4. Baltimore Orioles (70-75) The Orioles should surprise some people this year, as they'll win a lot of 12-10 games. Assuming ROY-favorite Wieters is as advertised, they have quite a potent lineup. Unfortunately they're pitching staff is horrible, so they should lose a lot of 12-10 games as well. Sherrill should be a decent closer, but it's going to be tough to get there. Look for Huff to be moved for pitching prospects at the deadline.

5. Toronto Blue Jays (70-75) The loss of Burnett is huge for this team which relied on their pitching so much last year (did you know they led the ML in ERA last year)? Brian Bullington sure can't replace those 200 innings! Halladay should be solid as always, but then it gets iffy. But what really hurts is the lineup. Rookie Travis Snider sure could help, but I'm afraid Wells and Rolen are done.