It's no secret that the Pirates have been horrible at the plate this year. How horrible? Here are the stats through Sunday, and the corresponding MLB ranks:
Batting Average .217 (29/30)
On Base Percentage .269 (30/30)
Slugging .346 (27/30)
Runs 118 (30/30)
Hits 287 (30/30)
Walks 88 (30/30)
Pretty much everywhere you look, the team just can't find success at the plate. They're not hitting, not getting on base, not hitting for power, and not scoring runs. I'm sure they'll be some that quote babip and war and iso and all those advanced statistics, but really all you need to see is above (and of course the actual games). Up and down the roster, the Bucs are underachieving. Jose Tabata is capable of being a quality lead off hitter but is struggling, Pedro Alvarez is menacingly inconsistent, Alex Presley was demoted, Garrett Jones and Neil Walker are having unspectacularly mediocre seasons which is about what is expected, Casey McGehee, Michael McKenry, Yamaico Navarro and Nate McLouth have been dreadful as role players off the bench, and Clint Barmes' OBP is only .002 higher than pitcher James McDonald's (who is hitting 2 for 15 this year). Rod Barajas had a horrible start, but is now showing what he might be, which is a poor hitting catcher with a little pop. Josh Harrison has been the only decent bench option with a 260/302/420 line. Thankfully there is at least one hitter having a great year. Andrew McCutchen is still seeing pitches, which is astounding considering this lineup, and is hitting 336/395/550. At least he'll be a genuinely deserving Pirate All-Star this season. While not a huge proponent of the fancy advanced stats, his unsustainable .374 babip means a correction should be coming. Uh-oh. Then what?
Well, thankfully the pitching is keeping us in games, just like last year. However, as you'll recall the 2011 Pirates dropped well out of contention (and first place, haha) when the pitching correction occured. Well, as you ponder the stats below, remember that Erik Bedard has already experienced back spasms, Kevin Correia has most likely already had his good starts for the year, and the "Electric Stuff" of AJ Burnett and Charlie Morton has actually been anything but electric. But so far, the staff has limited runs and hits, and the bullpen has kept the leads.
Earned Run Average 3.36 (5/30)
WHIP 1.27 (11/30)
Batting Average Against .244 (11/30)
Holds 28 (2/30)
Saves 12 (tied for 7/30)
And how about this stat? The average Pirates game score is 2.8-3.6 ... which means less concession sales because the games are shorter, which means less revenue, which means less payroll, which means (ah, nevermind I'm getting carried away there).
In April, after 6 games and half of Pirate Nation already on the ledge I said, relax the hits will come. Well, they really haven't now after 41 games, and the season at the quarter pole. Usually when a team "blows up for the future" it's after some success. Neal Huntington blew up the roster once already when coming aboard, with little success before/after. Now we're mired with arguably the worst hitting team in the bigs (with no hitting prospects doing well this year in Indianapolis or Altoona), and an unsustainable pitching staff again using smoke and mirrors to keep us only 3.0 games out of the division lead (giving false hope to legions of faithful fans). So as the next month or so bring us ever closer to the trade deadline, here are the chips Neal needs to push all in to rebuild a balanced club (in preferred order):
1. Erik Bedard: Should be traded as soon as humanly possible before back spasms or arm trouble shut him down. Real contenders like the Yankees, Tigers and Red Sox have struggled to pitch well, and have way to much money invested not to trade prospects for a chance to win this year. Internal replacement: Rudy Owens (2.50 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 38K vs 5BB in 8 starts in Indianapolis).
2. Joel Hanrahan: Closers are highly overrated, and Joel should be able to net a bounty in July to the desperate contenders with broken down bullpens. It occurs every year, and in 2012 the Bucs need to strike. If Octavio Dotel can bring us James McDonald, then imagine what Hanrahan can net us. Internal replacement: Jason Grilli
3. Juan Cruz: Another hot commodity in July is the 8th inning relief pitcher who bridges the gap to the closer. Cruz has been phenomenal this year, and is a luxury for a team like the Pirates. Neal has shown (if nothing else) that he can rebuild bullpens year in and year out, so no big loss, but high reward. Internal replacement: Bryan Morris (3.33 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 23K vs 5BB in 24.1 Indianapolis innings)
4. A.J. Burnett: Assuming A.J. is able to turn back on the electric stuff this summer, then he should be moved at the deadline, but only if the Pirates pick up the majority of his contract to increase the haul. As the club stands now, they need to pay for prospects, because they're being spurned by free agents and have nothing in the pipeline except more pitching. Internal replacement: Brad Lincoln or Kevin Correia (once Jeff Karstens knocks him out of the rotation).
Yes that's a lot of pitching to trade away, but this team isn't contending in 2012, and it's quite possible that as early as next fall, we'll be seeing the debuts of aces Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole to go along with James McDonald and Charlie Morton. Wouldn't it be nice to have some hitting to match that pitching? Isn't that really the only way to win? The only positions that are set in my mind are McCutchen in center, Tabata in right, Walker at second and Pedro at third. So now Neal needs to start filling the holes in left, first and short with blue chip hitting prospects in order to save his job. He has some chips to play with, he just needs to find a game.
Beat Em, Bucs!
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