 |
| Before there was Buctown ... (image clipped from Baseball Junk Drawer) |
The beauty of this game is that it debuts in the Spring when new life is all around us, and concludes in the Autumn, when the leaves begin to turn and fall. As many a better author than I have waxed, this game is the perfect analogy of the seasons. The long Summer brings sunny days, drought, and stormy weather - all events that every single team rich and poor will experience over the next six months. And for every fan, Spring brings the hope that this year might be different for their team. So as April arrives, we all hope that this is the year the Pirates turn the corner. And it very well can be, as all 30 teams are contenders on Opening Day, all exactly 0-0. And while nobody actually believes the Pirates are going to win it all in 2012, or even sniff the playoffs, what needs to happen for success in 2012 is just winning more than losing. While the club may be flawed, I think they're at least just as good as they are bad, and vice-versa. A .500 record is not out of the question in a division that lost Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, weakening two of the supposed Top 3 teams. Add the pretty bad teams in Chicago and Houston and what I consider an overrated Cincinnati squad, and you have the Bucs square in the middle, at .500. My rally cry all season long will be the "Beat 'Em Bucs" tune from the 1960 squad. Because the Bucs are going all the way, all the way, all the way. Yes, the Bucs are going all the way, all the way to average. My crystal ball says the Bucs will win #81 in New York on September 27. Then, we'll get swept by the NL Central Champion Reds, and then finally, #82 and #83 come against the fourth-place Braves. No 20th consecutive losing streak in 2012.
First Base: Grade B
Like many a fan, I too wanted the Pirates to upgrade at this position. While nobody in their right mind thought Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder were coming aboard (although I loved the idea of offering Prince a 2/$50M deal so he could get another payday, and so other free agents would take us seriously in the future), there were some halfway decent options out there. Truthfully, I wanted Derrek Lee back but since he didn't want to come back ... good riddance. Garrett Jones can be respectable first baseman with power at times. Casey McGehee was signed as his platoon partner (despite only playing in 11 games at 1B prior to this Spring). Obviously this was a signing to push Pedro. While McGehee's 2011 season was awful, I'd expect him to come closer to the 2009 or 2010 version given enough at bats. Having had a torrid Spring Training with the big club (his first), Matt Hague has done everything he can to prove he should at least be given a chance to go north and be Jones' platoon partner. And while Spring stats don't mean anything to the naysayers, the fact is he has excelled at every level in his minor league career, and is probably capable of hitting .290 with some gap power. He's the wild card here, perhaps the guy who could help keep the position warm for Hoosier Alex Dickerson. #freematthague
Second Base: Grade B-
Neil Walker has no competition, it's just a question of which Pittsburgh Kid shows up. Will it be the 2010 version that came out of nowhere to finish fifth for the Rookie of the Year award (like Matt Hague could do), or will it be the 2011 version who regressed almost everywhere except defensively? My guess is that it will be a little bit of both. I expect he'll show more power, but I don't see him hitting .296 again. I would be perfectly happy with a .280 with 15-20 homers. Until we know for sure which Neil Walker we're getting, I hope the front office holds off on signing him long term.
Shortstop: Grade B-
While the grade might seem high for a guy whose similarity scores on Baseball Reference bring up such illustrious talent like Tim Teufel and Pokey Reese, the point here is that I think he'll be better than Ronny Cedeno. His glove his a welcome addition for a staff that needs to depend on ground ball outs, and some consistency is desperately needed. Also, having played for Clint Hurdle before might help him find his groove again at the plate. Couldn't hurt, anyhow.
Third Base: Grade C
I still believe in Pedro Alvarez. He was badly rushed up to The Show, exactly one year too soon. But I'm still hoping he'll pull an Alex Gordon in 2012, having showed a glimpse of what he can be in an electrifying 2010 debut. We all know now that he really should have spent all of 2010 and the first half of 2011 in Indianapolis, so he could grow defensively (or possibly have learned 1B), and mature at the plate. Similar sluggers (we hope) like Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard all were seasoned properly at the lower levels so they were ready for success when they go called up. Instead, Pedro was shell shocked last year while battling injuries, and now everyone is saying this is make or break for him. There's a part of me that wants him to start the year in Triple-A Indianapolis, mashing the ball with Starling Marte, and then be ready for a mid season call up (perhaps McGehee does well also, then gets flipped at the trade deadline to make room)? But Neal's balls are brass enough for that, which is why he'll be starting in Pittsburgh again, assuming they don't pull a phantom injury excuse. He should be platooning with McGehee at the start of the season, riding the pine against the tough lefties until he can show something other than 0-3 with 3K's on his stat sheet. His upside is the moon, but the club still needs to win, so ease him in gently. A Pedro/Casey platoon could easily produce .260/25/90.
Left Field: Grade B
I like Alex Presley, don't get me wrong. The kid can hit and run, but he's not the future. We all saw this Spring that the future was Starling Marte. I'm not sure Marte is going to be ready to come up this summer however (September call up seems more likely), and Alex is going to want to continue proving himself at the big league level. I think down the line, he would make a perfect fourth outfielder for the Bucs, as he has the speed to man any of the OF positions. But instead we have Nate McLouth, who most likely will prove to be very underwhelming as he is a shell of his former All-Star, Gold Glove self. My hope is Alex is a Bucco in 2013, but perhaps he gets traded to make room for Marte, a la the McLouth/McCutchen dealio a few years back. Meanwhile, Alex could very well hit .300 with gap power, setting the table for ...
Center Field: Grade A
Andrew McCutchen, newly minted budding superstar. As long as we get the Andrew who hits and steals we'll have an All-Star. If we get the Andrew trying to hit home runs all the time, we might get the second half Andrew who struggled. My guess is we'll get more of the first half version, something like .290 with 25 bombs and 40 steals. We'll have to wait until 2013 for him to join the 30/30 club.
Right Field: Grade A-
I freely admit that I'm biased here, as Jose Tabata is my favorite Pirate. If you haven't read Tom Singer's article on Jose this Spring, just do it. Having fallen from the Yankees graces as a prospect, Mini-Manny was thrown into the epic Marte/Nady trade as an afterthought. With Clemente tattooed blazed across his chest, he now gets to live his dream, manning RF in Pittsburgh for quite a few years. I won't even get into the crazy wife/kidnapping issue but to say you can't help but feel for the guy. Now that he has the security of a contract, look for Tabby to dig into RF, hit .300, steal 40 bags, and play stellar D.
Catcher: Grade C-
Until Tony Sanchez gets here (yes, I still think he's our long term answer), then blah .... Rob Barajas is an improvement over Ryan It Gets By Doumit. He has a lesser bat than Doumit, but a much better glove. He might even be able to handle a pitching staff, and throw a runner out once in awhile. If he hits 15-20 bombs, and plays 130 games then it's money very well spent.
Starting Pitching: Grade B-
The first few months of 2011 showed what a decent pitching staff could do for the Bucs and the City of Pittsburgh. Genuine excitement of a possible division crown and breaking the streak. However, it was all smoke and mirrors as we know now. Fortunately the front office got the memo, and bolstered the staff further by adding Erik Bedard and A.J. Burnett in the fold. Bedard should at least break even with the newly Cubbed Paul Maholm, and hopefully if healthy will actually exceed Average Paul. A.J. assuming he can see straight should also help tremendously by knocking out the poorest performer of the rest of the group: Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens. Of these four, I expect Karstens to struggle the most, and end up back in his spot-start, long reliever role. And of these four, I'm expecting McDonald to be the best, as I'm looking for this to be the break out year for him (similar to what Morton flashed last year). I think the rotation will end up looking like #1 AJ #2 McDonald #3 Bedard #4 Morton and #5 Correia, which is to say, pretty good.
Relief Pitching: Grade B
It all starts at the end with All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan. As long as he's healthy and effective the bullpen should be fine. Setting him up is a plethora of options, such as Jason Grilli, Chris Resop, Evan Meek, Juan Cruz, Chris Leroux, lefties Tony Watson and Daniel Moskos, and the also-ran of the starters, my guess being Karstens. Resop should be solid in the setup 8th inning role, unless Meek regains his velocity and command, in which case he's the 8th inning guy, and Resop the 7th inning guy. The bullpen is always a jumble, and when this is published on Opening Day I'm sure one or two will be wrong. Ultimately the key to a solid bullpen is a solid rotation - the less work the pen has, the more effective they are. If Bryan Morris does well in the closer role in Indianapolis, look for talk of trading Hanrahan for a bounty in July. As valuable as he is, closers can grow on trees.
Coaching: Grade C
This is Clint Hurdle's team now, his honeymoon is over. Much as been made about Hurdle's game calling, primarily bunting way too much. Hopefully he can play a but more hands off this year, fill out lineups, motivate young guys when needed and just let them hit. There's actually plenty of potential in the lineup to score runs, and it doesn't mean leaving outs at the plate just to move a guy over that could potentially steal a base. Assuming the lineup goes Presley, Tabata, McCutchen ... that's a lot of speed and gap power. There should be no reason for the three of these guys to lay a bunt down before the 8th inning unless they're bunting for a hit. On the pitching side of things, coach Ray Searage did a wonderful job with Charlie Morton last year, so look for him to do miraculous things with this year's breakout pitcher, James McDonald.
Awards:
MVP: Andrew McCutchen
CY James McDonald
Rookie of the Year: Matt Hague
Beat 'Em, Bucs!
Center Field: Grade A
Andrew McCutchen, newly minted budding superstar. As long as we get the Andrew who hits and steals we'll have an All-Star. If we get the Andrew trying to hit home runs all the time, we might get the second half Andrew who struggled. My guess is we'll get more of the first half version, something like .290 with 25 bombs and 40 steals. We'll have to wait until 2013 for him to join the 30/30 club.
Right Field: Grade A-
I freely admit that I'm biased here, as Jose Tabata is my favorite Pirate. If you haven't read Tom Singer's article on Jose this Spring, just do it. Having fallen from the Yankees graces as a prospect, Mini-Manny was thrown into the epic Marte/Nady trade as an afterthought. With Clemente tattooed blazed across his chest, he now gets to live his dream, manning RF in Pittsburgh for quite a few years. I won't even get into the crazy wife/kidnapping issue but to say you can't help but feel for the guy. Now that he has the security of a contract, look for Tabby to dig into RF, hit .300, steal 40 bags, and play stellar D.
Catcher: Grade C-
Until Tony Sanchez gets here (yes, I still think he's our long term answer), then blah .... Rob Barajas is an improvement over Ryan It Gets By Doumit. He has a lesser bat than Doumit, but a much better glove. He might even be able to handle a pitching staff, and throw a runner out once in awhile. If he hits 15-20 bombs, and plays 130 games then it's money very well spent.
Starting Pitching: Grade B-
The first few months of 2011 showed what a decent pitching staff could do for the Bucs and the City of Pittsburgh. Genuine excitement of a possible division crown and breaking the streak. However, it was all smoke and mirrors as we know now. Fortunately the front office got the memo, and bolstered the staff further by adding Erik Bedard and A.J. Burnett in the fold. Bedard should at least break even with the newly Cubbed Paul Maholm, and hopefully if healthy will actually exceed Average Paul. A.J. assuming he can see straight should also help tremendously by knocking out the poorest performer of the rest of the group: Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens. Of these four, I expect Karstens to struggle the most, and end up back in his spot-start, long reliever role. And of these four, I'm expecting McDonald to be the best, as I'm looking for this to be the break out year for him (similar to what Morton flashed last year). I think the rotation will end up looking like #1 AJ #2 McDonald #3 Bedard #4 Morton and #5 Correia, which is to say, pretty good.
Relief Pitching: Grade B
It all starts at the end with All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan. As long as he's healthy and effective the bullpen should be fine. Setting him up is a plethora of options, such as Jason Grilli, Chris Resop, Evan Meek, Juan Cruz, Chris Leroux, lefties Tony Watson and Daniel Moskos, and the also-ran of the starters, my guess being Karstens. Resop should be solid in the setup 8th inning role, unless Meek regains his velocity and command, in which case he's the 8th inning guy, and Resop the 7th inning guy. The bullpen is always a jumble, and when this is published on Opening Day I'm sure one or two will be wrong. Ultimately the key to a solid bullpen is a solid rotation - the less work the pen has, the more effective they are. If Bryan Morris does well in the closer role in Indianapolis, look for talk of trading Hanrahan for a bounty in July. As valuable as he is, closers can grow on trees.
Coaching: Grade C
This is Clint Hurdle's team now, his honeymoon is over. Much as been made about Hurdle's game calling, primarily bunting way too much. Hopefully he can play a but more hands off this year, fill out lineups, motivate young guys when needed and just let them hit. There's actually plenty of potential in the lineup to score runs, and it doesn't mean leaving outs at the plate just to move a guy over that could potentially steal a base. Assuming the lineup goes Presley, Tabata, McCutchen ... that's a lot of speed and gap power. There should be no reason for the three of these guys to lay a bunt down before the 8th inning unless they're bunting for a hit. On the pitching side of things, coach Ray Searage did a wonderful job with Charlie Morton last year, so look for him to do miraculous things with this year's breakout pitcher, James McDonald.
Awards:
MVP: Andrew McCutchen
CY James McDonald
Rookie of the Year: Matt Hague
Beat 'Em, Bucs!
No comments:
Post a Comment