Jumping to Conclusions (July Edition)

The Bucs are off and running after the All-Star break, with a 4-2 record. The offensive has been prolific, banging out 77 hits and 50 runs for an average of 8 runs and 12 hits a night. The pitchers have only given up 26 runs during that stretch, a touch over 4 a game. I’ll take 8-4 games every day of the week. The team is now over .500 at PNC and Pedro “El Toro” Alvarez is scorching the ball. But it’s the latter part of July, so let’s not get too excited. The top team in the National League, (yes) the San Diego Padres are coming in this weekend, and good pitching could undo all this enthusiasm. Plus … there’s the inevitable trading deadline approaching.

Here are the guys in play before 7/31:

Octavio Dotel, Chance 90%

I like the Big O, but he’s got to go at the deadline. I hope it’s with Duke or a reliever so the haul is better, but it doesn’t really matter. Teams in last place shouldn’t worry about saves, and there are two worthy options to close in Hanrahan (my preference) and Meek.

DJ Carrasco, Chance 80%

A guy who’s affordable and replaceable. Somewhere there’s a contender that needs a swing guy, but I’ll let the fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors sort that out. He should go.

Zach Duke, Chance 70%

Dukie might be a worthwhile chip right now. He was decent in his last outing against the Brewers, and if he pitches well in Colorado next Tuesday, he might just go. I like Zach, but if we can get a legitimate SS prospect out of a desperate contender, then go for it. I’d rather it was at his expense that Paulie’s.

Paul Maholm, Chance 50%

As much as I hate to say it, he sure would look good in Dodger blue. But we can’t be trading away our only consistently decent starter unless you’re getting a prospect shortstop like Dee Gordon back. Probably wouldn’t get that without packaging him with a reliever. Plus he’s extended reasonably for the PBC. I say keep him unless overwhelmed.

Andy Laroche, Chance 20%

I’m not sure what market there is for him, but he could be a throw-in in a bigger deal. His natural position is gone and he’s not going to second base anytime soon, so he might as well move on.

Ryan Doumit, Chance 0%

His stock is low, his defense is crap, and now he’s on the DL with a concussion. I think Neal is going to regret not moving him when he had a chance, was healthy and productive for a stretch.

GO BUCS!