Pitching: This was the obvious achilles heel of the 2008 squad. There were major regressions from both Ian Snell and Tom Gorzellany, and a breakthrough of sorts for Paul Maholm. Entering '09, 1. Paul Maholm is the ace-by-default, and is looking even better in spring training. Beyond that, you need to look at the contributions that new pitching coach Joe Kerrigan is bringing. With an emphasis on basics like throwing strikes, using the inside of the plate etc, it seems like he might actually be helping 2. Ian Snell and 3. Zack Duke who have had very good ST starts. 4. Ross Ohlendorf is starting to look like a viable option (and underdog breakout candidate) with his improved mechanics. Rounding out the rotation is a bit of a mystery, but perhaps 5. Jeff Karstens can keep the spot warm for a hopeful return of Indianapolis Indian Gorzo. The defense should be improved this year as well with a healthy infield, and Jason Bay not manning a huge left field. That bodes well for a staff that doesn't strike many guys out. The end of the bullpen should be good enough with Matt Capps saving games, along with Tyler Yates and John Grabow setting him up. The middle is a bit shaky (walk prone) ... but if you can get 6-7 innings from your starters on a more regular basis, it might not be as scary as you might think.
Hitting: Last year's squad before the trades was one of the best in the NL. Now you look at the lineup, and wonder where the power is. The everyday lineup on April 6 looks like ... 1. Nyjer Morgan, LF. I'm thinking he'll hold onto his job until at least May 1, and maybe longer depending on how well he can get on base. Sadly though, he and Nate may be the only ones on the team capable of manning left field, which ties Manager John Russell's hands. Management really wants to give him a chance to become Juan Pierre, but secretly they don't want to start the free agent clock on Andrew McCutchen, who I think (hope) will be the everyday LF by the end of the year ... 2. Freddy Sanchez, 2B. It appears like Freddy might be returning to his batting champ form, now that he's healthy and motivated to stay in Pitt. If they can get 40 doubles and a .300 average out of the 2 hole, then this team can start scoring runs with ... 3. Nate McLouth, CF. Nate broke out big time last year, with an All-Star selection and a Gold Glove. Aside from stealing more bases, he may have plateaued which is just fine, but I'd like to see him knock some more runs in, and raise his average a bit. Right now he's the star of the team, with his Nico-like blond locks and new contract. He should be an All-Star again come July, perhaps along with teammate ... 4. Ryan Doumit, C. It all comes down to staying healthy and be able to catch 150 games. He's easily one of the top hitting catchers in the league. The switch hitter needs to show more power though, because it can't all come from ... 5. Adam LaRoche, 1B. His slow starts are well advertised, and a worry for sure. However, a good start would be crucial for the Buccos, as it would take pressure off the kids further down the lineup, and it could net the team a huge payoff if (and most likely when) he's shipped off at the trade deadline. Steven Pearce should be the 1B come August 1, assuming he excels in an everyday Indy role. One guy who'll be sad to see Adam go is his brother ... 6. Andy LaRoche, 3B. Look for Andy to breakout in a big way this year, and possibly even move up in the lineup. He has a ton to prove after a miserable injury plagued half season last year, and has been hitting and getting on base very well in ST, and should set the table for ... 7. Brandon Moss, RF. Like Andy, Moss is another guy who had a tough Bucco premiere, but should excel given a chance to play everyday, healthy and with little pressure. He has some hidden power potential, but may be on a short leash, with Craig Monroe and Eric Hinske looking for regular playing time as well ... 8. Jack Wilson, SS rounds put the regular lineup. If Jack can hit .280 with 10 homers and play stellar defense, that's all the team needs. Now, if Brian Bixler is hitting .300 in Indy, then Jack might still go at the deadline. But really, he won't net much.
Etc: The NL Central hasn't improved that much, and in fact it could be argued it's fallen back to the Pirates a bit. The Cubs lost a closer, but replaced him. The Cards will be healthier. The Reds lost some punch in the lineup. The Brewers lost two frontline starters. The Astros were one streak last year away from the cellar. The schedule looks a little better this year, and if they can get off to a modest start (on the road a lot, esp. July) then maybe a run to 82 can be achieved at PNC in the late summer (last 60 games, 36-home, 24-road). Their interleague schedule looks better as well playing the AL Central (home vs DET/CLE/KC, road vs CWS/MIN) and the divisional schedule is more even than '08 (15 CHI, 15 STL, 18 CIN, 15 HOU, 14 MIL). But ultimately success in Pittsburgh this year is going to come down to pride. The 25 guys opening tomorrow in St Louis are tired of hearing about thew "hapless organization" and it's losing ways. They have the collective ability and motivation. Let's watch it happen.
82 is change I can believe in!
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