National League, Central Division

Overview: Like absolutely every other publication, blog, paper etc - I'm going pick the Cubs to win the division. Although I think the Cardinals and Reds are going to be too close for comfort and will be in the wild-card hunt come September. The Brewers are regressing for sure. The Pirates will (WILL!) be close to 82, and should (SHOULD!) be able to best the Astros and stay out of the cellar. 1. Chicago Cubs (95-100 wins) There are a couple small if's that could be the difference for the 2-time defending division champions (last time that's happened since ... hmm, 1906-8): IF Big Z and Rich Harden can stay healthy all year, and IF Marmol/Gregg can step up into the role of closer. Like most, I have little reason to think 2/3 won't happen (Big Z's star is fading), and they'll be the NL favorites again this year. Oh, and Pinella and Bradley in the same dugout should be fun too ...

2. St. Louis Cardinals (90-95 wins) Like the Chicago White Sox, I hate this team, but somehow they continue to piss me off and be competitive. Carpenter should be back, Pujols should be MVP, and they should have money to spend at the trade deadline. I don't think it'll be enough to catch the Cubs, but it'll be an interesting summer.

3. Cincinnati Reds (90-95 wins) Everyone's '09 darkhorse is mine too. The rotation can be the best in the division (without Dusty's overuse) and Joey Votto is going to be a stud, all-star this year. Along with Jay Bruce, they should be able to pound this year. Only problem is the rest of the lineup. Willy Tavares is a poor man's Juan Pierre, and Keppinger/Gonzalez are easy outs.

4. Milwaukee Brewers (80-85 wins) You simply don't lose CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets and expect anything close to a repeat performance. They rolled the dice last year and lost. Now they're stuck with Jeff Suppan as their ace. They'll hit with Braun and Fielder in the 3-4, but may actually struggle to finish in 4th place. If the Reds are my dark horse, then the Brew Crew is my light pony. And this is great news for ....

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (82 wins) I'll have a more lengthy post before the season starts, but yes, this team can win 82. Andy LaRoche is primed to show why he was an important piece in the Bay trade, Ian Snell and Freddy Sanchez look back to form, and Andrew McCutchen could come up on May 1, and win ROY.

6. Houston Astros (70-75 wins) Last year, fluke. They went 40-20 (!) down the stretch to finish 3rd with 86 wins. At the time they were 46-55, and should have kept pace by winning 74 games. This year they'll prove last year was a fluke. They have one good starter (Oswalt), one massively overpaid/overrated LF (Lee), one steroid junkie (Tejada) and one all-star regular (Berkman). If they can find a taker, Oswalt should be gone at the trading deadline.