American League, East Division

Overview: This should be a really close division for the better part of the summer. I see the Red Sox pulling it out over the Rays in the last few weeks. But the Rays should secure the wild card. The Yankees should fall just short again and the Orioles and Blue Jays will trade for last place all year long.

1. Boston Red Sox (90-95 wins) Top to bottom this team is too strong not to finish first. Their starting pitching is still the best in the division, and could add Penny and Smoltz to the mix. They may not slug it like they used to, but they'll generate plenty of offense. Plus they have enough organizational depth to get whatever they please at the trading deadline (catcher).

2. Tampa Bay Rays (90-95) This team is extremely balanced, with good young pitching, and phenom Price on the cusp of stardom. Pat the Bat helps power up the lineup, which should slug a lot more. Look for Upton and Longoria to explode, but Pena to come back down to earth. I just feel they're going to experience the sophomore slump. They'll contend for years to come though.

3. New York Yankees (85-90) This is a really tough division, and a third place finish really isn't that bad, unless you're the Yankees. AFraud's injury hurts them a lot; Cody Ransom at 3B could be really painful. For the first time in a long time though, pitching will keep them in it. CC should win the Cy, and Wang will bounce back. I'm not sold on Burnett's durability, but Hughes will emerge in his place. What really keeps them out of contention though is a lineup featuring overrated Nady, aging Damon and Matsui, and real question marks in CF, C and maybe 2B.

4. Baltimore Orioles (70-75) The Orioles should surprise some people this year, as they'll win a lot of 12-10 games. Assuming ROY-favorite Wieters is as advertised, they have quite a potent lineup. Unfortunately they're pitching staff is horrible, so they should lose a lot of 12-10 games as well. Sherrill should be a decent closer, but it's going to be tough to get there. Look for Huff to be moved for pitching prospects at the deadline.

5. Toronto Blue Jays (70-75) The loss of Burnett is huge for this team which relied on their pitching so much last year (did you know they led the ML in ERA last year)? Brian Bullington sure can't replace those 200 innings! Halladay should be solid as always, but then it gets iffy. But what really hurts is the lineup. Rookie Travis Snider sure could help, but I'm afraid Wells and Rolen are done.