newpiratesfan

My Overdue Hall of Fame Ballot Post

2012-01-13T23:10:00.000-05:00

Like a million other bloggers in this world, I'll never sniff a baseball job, let alone a chance to select which players are worthy of a Cooperstown induction. But that doesn't stop everyone from criticizing the writers' decision making, and won't stop me this year. So here is my ballot (a little late, I've been a little busy) ...

Barry Larkin - How long do you think it will be until another "Barry" makes the Hall? When healthy, this Barry was probably the best all around shortstop in the game (until a kid named Alex came around). How can someone be underrated and still make 12 All-Star games? Glad to see him elected.

Jeff Bagwell - No brainer. He's unfairly associated with the Steroids Era, despite no shred of evidence or even innuendo. Absolute travesty that a guy who averaged .297/.408/.540, 34HR and 15SB a year, and has a higher career OPS+ than Alex Rodriguez only sniffed 56% of the vote. He should have been a first ballot guy, and hopefully will make it in next year with his teammate Craig Biggio.

Tim Raines - For a decade, Rock was basically a poor man's Rickey Henderson, but because he was hiding in Montreal for so long, is not getting the respect he deserves. The only knock on him might be he hung around too long, after his best years were way behind him.

Larry Walker - Yes his stats look gaudy because of his years in Colorado, but so what? He still had an OPS+ of 128 before coming to The Humidor. Babe Ruth hit a lot of home runs with a right field porch only 314 feet away, and who dares say his home runs aren't authentic? Walker was a beast at the plate, could steal bases, and won 7 Gold Gloves. Vote him in.

Alan Trammell - Growing up in the 80's, we was one of my favorite ball players. He was always unfairly in Cal Ripken's shadow, who made 19 straight All-Star games. He also lost a bit of thunder being half of one of the greatest DP combos of all time. Sweet Lou Whitaker didn't quite have Hall numbers, but I sure would love to see the two somehow immortalized together. I used to think Trammell wasn't good enough, but this post by DesigNate Robinson changed my mind.

Fred McGriff - The Crime Dog simply had staying power. Just shy of 500 home runs, a .284/.377/.509 lifetime line is good enough for me.

The guys I can't quite bring myself to vote for are Jack Morris (I used to think he belonged, but I keep flip-flopping), Lee Smith (racking saves up is nice, but averaging 85 innings a year just doesn't seem hall worthy to me), Edgar Martinez (I'll probably change my mind on him someday, but for now a full time DH needs more than 2200 hits or 300 home runs to make it in my book), Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy (they just didn't excel long enough), and Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro (should be first ballot no doubters, but when you know they used steroids, you can discriminate. I hope they're veterans committee selections, I think that would be a good course for the druggies that should be in).

Looking ahead to next year, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Roger Clemens fall into my steroiders discrimination, while Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza should make it in easy. I'll have to explore Curt Schilling and Kenny Lofton further.

A Glance at the Winter Meetings

2011-12-06T15:09:00.001-05:00

Ah, finally ... baseball is back in the news! The Winter Meetings are this week in Dallas - and now is the most fun we're going to have with baseball until mid-February. I've happily muted all my politics on twitter, and started following the big hitters: Keith Law, Buster Olney, Jayson Stark, Ken Rosenthal, Peter Gammons, Jon Heyman, Jon Morosi and Kevin Goldstein. I'm sure I'm missing a few more key reporters, but that's enough to max out my feed. After the week is up I'll unfollow most of them, as they are simply too prolific for my tastes.

So what are the Pirates up to? Well, not much yet. Rumors are flying (well, probably closer to taking the bus) around about such middle-of-the-pack guys like Jeff Francis, Nate McLouth, Mark DeRosa and Ian Stewart. Hardly the most exciting stuff - but what do you expect, we can't all throw money around like we're the Miami Marlins! Probably the best hope for an early Christmas present (aside from a DLee arbitration acceptance) would be a Joel Hanrahan trade. I like the guy, but for a cost controlled elite closer in this market, the Bucs have to be shopping him. It would be irresponsible not to. We could easily net a top prospect, and a starting shortstop. Oh wait, we're giving Clint Barmes $10M, nevermind that. Jayson Stark tweeted earlier today, saying the closer market is down to San Diego, Cincinnati, New York (NL), Anaheim, Boston and perhaps even Tampa Bay and Texas. There are some loaded farms in that list. Let's play highway robbery.

On the free agent front, I've got my eyes on two players.

Michael Cuddyer, 32 years old, plays RF, 1B and 3B. He would instantly become our starting RF, and if utilized correctly could be a great fit for our three most glaring holes off the pitching rubber. If the rumors are true that Minnesota offered him 3/25, I think the Bucs should offer 3/30. He's not really blocking anyone (Starling Marte probably won't be up until 2013 anyway, and Cudd could play 1B also), he's got some much needed righty pop for the lineup. Plus, the guy likes to take some photos, so he might just want to come to the most beautiful park in the land and finally see the National League.

Erik Bedard, 32 years old, starting pitcher. Yes, he's had his share of injuries, but the Bucs need to roll the dice on a reclamation project. Having spent his entire career in the American League, the lefty coming to PNC to replace Paul Maholm could be magical. He strikes out a ton of guys still, and did manage to start 24 games last year. With everyone circling around C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle, the Bucs should swoop in and sign Bedard to a two year deal while nobody is looking.

It's time to strike Mr. Huntington.

The Time to Spend is NOW

2011-11-10T20:39:00.001-05:00

I think it's finally got to the point in my fandom when I'm officially tired of hearing that the Pirates need to focus on prospects with upside. There was a time when Brandon Moss, Jeff Clement, Andy LaRoche and Lastings Milledge seemed like good ideas. The front office needed to blow shit up, and try and stockpile young players with upside, hoping to strike gold. But now that the famous 2008 All World lineup has been officially imploded with the final drops of Ryan Doumit and Paul Maholm, the Bucs are left with the prospects from those trades. The misses have been well documented (above), and the hits are well known as well: Charlie Morton, Jose Tabata, James McDonald and Joel Hanrahan being the best of the hauls. I'm not questioning those moves at all (there are always hits and misses), I'm just very concerned about this offseason.

As the Pirates prepare for 2012, the holes are pretty clear. First base without Derrek Lee is a gaping hole that Garrett Jones just can't fill anymore. Shortstop is looking dreadful without the almost average Ronny Cedeno's inconsistencies driving us crazy. Third base could get scary fast if Pedro Alvarez doesn't get over his nightmare season that gave every Pirate fan heartburn. The rotation is still a smoke and mirrors operation with no depth and little real help on the way above A-ball.

Sadly, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Andrew McCutchen and Rod Barajas are the only guys on the field that should be guaranteed 500+ at bats this year (I would add Pedro in there as well, but I think if he struggles early like he did last year, he should spend the summer mashing in AAA Indianapolis). We need to pray to get 30 starts from each of Morton, McDonald, Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens. Think about how scary that could be. Potential black holes are at 1B, SS, 3B, RF, and SP. The front office has so many holes to fill, there simply is no way they can do it in free agency alone. But as I said earlier, I'm growing weary of trading for potential. It's time to package some prospects for a major leaguer or two. There's a glut of similar type outfielders (Alex Presley, Gorkys Hernandez, Starling Marte) who might be packaged with an "upside guy" like Stetson Allie that might net us a young shortstop. While Clint Barmes would be an OK pickup based on glove alone, I think they need to find some hitting first. It's also time to sign a real free agent, even if it means having to overpay. The Jose Reyes' and Prince Fielders of the world are obviously out of our range, so it's not really worth thinking about them. The guy I'd like to see added is Michael Cuddyer, because he could bring a decent bat and positional flexibility to some of our gaping holes, such as 1B, RF, and perhaps even 3B. It could be tough to bring him to Pittsburgh because there just aren't a lot of good free agents this year, but if the Bucs offer him an extra year of security, that might be enough to get the job done. I'd also like to see DLee brought back to solidify defense and keep some pop in the lineup. While it's a bit righty-heavy, this lineup might not be too awful ...

1. Tabata LF

2. Walker 2B

3. McCutchen CF

4. Lee 1B

5. Cuddyer RF

6. Alvarez 3B

7. Barajas C

8. Shortstop

9. Pitcher

As far as the rotation goes, it's time to spend for real. I doubt Mark Buehrle would sign here, but perhaps Erik Bedard could be brought in on a two year deal. There's not a lot to like out on the market, so signing one guy is all that's reasonable. This rotation could be respectable ...

1. Morton

2. Bedard

3. Correia

4. McDonald

5. Karstens

The front office is going to have to act boldly and overspend this year, if they want to avoid stepping back a season or two. The first four months gave Pirates fans some real hope for the future, but then August and September became a serious reality check, when the pitching crumbled, and the hitting was exposed as not even league average. Without making some real upgrades, the Pirates could find themselves regressing, losing 100 games in 2012. But with a few bold moves, they could tread water until the cavalry comes in 2013-2014, and show themselves to be an organization that other players WANT to play for, only helping them add pieces in future seasons. I have always tried to stay as positive as I can be, but honestly, that's where we are right now.

Patience with Pedro

2011-08-18T12:54:00.004-04:00

Pedro Alvarez, originally uploaded by tf-oto.

Hey Bucco Nation, let's not get to amped up on the "Pedro is a Bust" talk that is going around. It's perfectly normal for sluggers to take awhile to adjust. The simple fact is that he was rushed to the big leagues before he was ready. How about some minor league comps?

Ryan Howard, 508 games, 111 HR, 299/387/549/936

Prince Fielder, 448 games, 91 HR, 297/398/524/921

Adrian Gonzalez, 653 games, 69 HR, 296/365/448/813

Pedro Alvarez, 217 games, 44HR, 288/380/535/915

So in roughly half the minor league games, his slash line rivals these top sluggers, and he's hitting homeruns at the same clip. Perhaps if the front office would let him mash ALL NEXT YEAR in Indianapolis, he might be set to destroy the NL in 2013. I think the Pirates brass should start teaching him first base in the minors, and let him learn as any young player needs to.

I haven't given up on Pedro, and neither should you.

Newest Bucco Studs

2011-08-17T12:48:00.000-04:00

$8,000,000 First Rounder Gerrit Cole

$5,000,000 Second Rounder Josh Bell

Obligatory Armchair GM Post

2011-07-21T13:17:00.000-04:00

Oh happy days! The Bucs are actually buyers and not sellers at the trade deadline (or so we’re led to believe). At the start of the season, I thought for sure that Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit would be moved, and possibly even Lyle Overbay in a Dotel-like move, if he actually had a decent first half. But now the team is in a position to add talent to a NL Central contending squad, that quite frankly couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat. Pitching is fine, the biggest holes are 1B, 3B, RF and C.

First Base

Yes, Lyle Overbust should be gone. But who do you replace him with? A Jones/Pearce platoon might have been a viable option in April, but not for a contender in late July. Carlos Pena’s name gets bandied about, and he certainly would be an upgrade. But we would have to either give up some actual talent, or pay lots of cash in 2012 (due to an odd contract situation). Yes, home runs are sexy, but c’mon … in the last year and a half he’s hitting .204, getting on base at .327, and slugging .420! Hardly worth the 254 strikeouts in 938 plate appearances. If this is the type of production we’re looking for, I’d rather go get a Derrek Lee instead. He should cost us a lot less (prospects and money), still flashes great glove, is right handed, and a pennant race could be exactly what he needs to get going again.

Third Base

Don’t rush Pedro Alvarez. Let me repeat that. Don’t rush 24 year old Future Superstar Slugger Pedro Alvarez. He’s been battling injuries after a poor start, and is just now getting his groove back. Let him continue to rake in Indianapolis. I want Angry Pedro to come up on September 1, and lead us to the promised land. I can deal with Wood/Chase/Pearce etc for another month or so.

Right Field

Carlos Beltran, really? How much are we going to have to give up for 8 weeks? Too much. Unless we’re paying his ENTIRE salary, stay far far away. Hunter Pence is intriguing, even if he seems like one of the goofiest guys in the league (ever watch him throw a baseball?) … but he is a good player. If the Astros can be talked into Brad Lincoln, Gorkys Hernandez and a third lesser prospect, I would jump at that because we’re getting years of control, and Houston’s new ownership is getting some future salary relief. They’re blowing up their team ala Pittsburgh did, so let’s take advantage of that.

Catcher

It’s cool. Michael The Fort McKenry is a legend in the making, and Jason Jaramillo and Ryan Doumit are on their way back. Stand pat.

Conclusion

Lee + Pence + injured guys returning = PENNANT WINNING BASEBALL. More kool-aid please.

Photos from Victory Field 7/6/11

2011-07-17T12:31:00.000-04:00

As always, more shots on my flickr page.

Toledo Mud Hens 5

Indianapolis Indians 1

Rudy Owens (L, 6-6) 4.1 IP, 8H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO

Rudy Owens and Matt Hague

Pedro Alvarez, back in Indianapolis (0-3, BB, K)

Corey Wimberly can't quite get the tag down in time

Gorkys Hernandez had a nice day (2-3, 2B, 3B, BB, SB, R)

Rudy Owens' day is done in the 5th

John Bowker fouls one off (0-3, BB, RBI)

Buctown

2011-07-06T12:59:00.002-04:00

Updated NL Central Series Standings

2011-07-01T12:19:00.000-04:00

It's July 1, and the Pirates are only 2 games back of the first place Cardinals and Brewers, and 5 games back of the Braves for the NL wildcard. And in the "series standings" the Bucs are just a notch behind St. Louis. Consistency is the name of the game right now.

STL 17-9-1

Pittsburgh Pirates 16-9-2

MIL 13-12-2

CIN 13-13-1

CHI 8-17-3

HOU 6-20-1

NL Central Series Standings

2011-06-15T08:19:00.000-04:00

So far in 2011, the hallmark of this team is their ability to avoid the few hot and the many cold stretches that have sunk them in the past. Their 18 road wins surpass last year, and there's still half the summer to go. I was interested to see just how consistent the team has been, so I looked at the records of the teams in series' so far this year since so much as been made (and rightfully so) of winning the series and letting the math work itself out. I have not taken into consideration 2/3/4-game series lengths, because that's just too cumbersome for this infrequent blogger. But, it's a pretty good indication that the early season success is real, thanks to the pitching and Clint Hurdle (when he's not bunting).

St. Louis Cardinals 15-6-1
Milwaukee Brewers 12-8-2
Pittsburgh Pirates 12-8-2
Cincinnati Reds 11-10-1
Chicago Cubs 6-14-2
Houston Astros 5-16-1

(through Sunday June 12/Monday June 13)

My Realignment Plan

2011-06-12T20:08:00.000-04:00

Since realignment seems to be such a hot topic these days, I figure I might as well write that post I've had on draft for the last couple of years. It has always bugged me that MLB is not set up better geographically. Real rivalries should be local. Jim Bowden gave it a decent go, and is pretty close. Because baseball is one of the un-greenest sports around, it makes sense to reduce the travel costs of both the teams and the fans. So here's what I would do:

AL Northeast

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies

Baltimore Orioles

NL Southeast

Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves

Florida Marlins

Tampa Bay Rays

Houston Astros

AL Central

Toronto Blue Jays

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Indians

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds

NL Midwest

Minnesota Twins

Milwaukee Brewers

Chicago Cubs

Chicago White Sox

St. Louis Cardinals

AL West

Kansas City Royals

Texas Rangers

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

NL Pacific

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Angels

Oakland A's

San Francisco Giants

Seattle Mariners

Short of contracting a team or two and expanding to places like Nashville or New Orleans, this is as close as I can figure the map. Pirates fans want to play Philadelphia a lot, but I don't think Pittsburgh matches with New York or Boston. It feels more natural with the Lake Erie and Ohio regions. I have always wanted Houston to play up their Gulf location more, and be with Atlanta and Florida teams. I'd rather have Kansas City with St. Louis obviously, but as with Houston and Arlington Texas, the map just starts breaking down and you have to compromise somewhere. I like Bowden's California Divsion, but that leaves him matching up Seattle and Houston, 2,300 miles apart, which is hardly geographical (and makes my 1600 mile Kansas City-San Diego jaunt look a little better). Regarding the traditional American and National Leagues, who cares really? A pennant is a pennant.

There are inherent problems with 15 team leagues, such as an odd number of games for an even number of teams meaning someone's not playing on weekends. The season is far too long to start granting "bye weekends" - so unless we get two more teams (paging Mr. Selig) then the number of games has to change. I say add 2 more games, and start playing day/night doubleheaders. Baseball needs to be played in sunlight more often, and it's more efficient (and flexible with spring rain). As far as scheduling goes, do like the NFL, NHL, and NBA do, inter-league all year round. I know the traditionalists hate it, but get over it already. The rest of us have. Here's my schedule plan:

Play each team in your division 16 times (8 home 8 road) - 64 games
Play each team in your league 8 times (4 home 4 road) - 80 games
Play each team in one IL division (rotates each year) 4 times (2 home, 2 road) - 20 games

Then there's the playoffs. I've never been in favor of one-game play-in style games for baseball. It degrades the long season, even if it does generate lots of buzz and money. I'd rather leave it as it is. A second or third wild card team would create long stretches of time that would penalize the best teams. Give all the playoff teams two days off, then start playing. 5 game wild card, 7 game league championship and World Series. Nice and tidy.

Photos: Indians vs Norfolk 4/26/11

2011-04-29T13:05:00.002-04:00

Over 100 photos are on my flickr page, but here are a few highlights (straight out of the camera). My hope is to do much more of this as the summer goes on. Enjoy.

First Pitch, Justin Wilson

Josh Harrison, running hard (one of four hits)

Chase D'arnaud makes an easy out look hard

Pedro Ciriaco's attempt at a DP is broken up by a Tide

Andrew Lambo went yard

Jason Jaramillo hit a grand slam

Pedro Ciriaco plays "hurdleball"

Gorkys Hernandez with a beautiful slide. More "hurdleball"

Josh Harrison, after the 8-5 win

Electric Stuff

2011-04-20T14:03:00.001-04:00

electric stuff, originally uploaded by tf-oto.

Charlie Morton goes tonight. Bucs go to .500!

Lambo Loogey

2011-04-20T14:01:00.001-04:00

Lambo Loogey, originally uploaded by tf-oto.

A nice hocker from RF Andrew Lambo, opening night, Victory Field 4/8/11

Happy Opening Day

2011-04-01T10:58:00.001-04:00

Raise the Jolly Roger, originally uploaded by tf-oto.

Let's raise that jolly roger!

Beat 'em Bucs!

NL Central Predictions

2011-03-31T09:36:00.000-04:00

1. Chicago Cubs ... Say what? The Cubs aren't going to win the Central, are they? Well yes, I think they will. And one reason why is that this division is going to be awfully close. The top four teams should all be within 6-8 games of each other. The other reason is because they're totally under the radar, have a pretty underrated pitching staff (now better by attrition - bye Carlos Silva) with Carlos Marmol closing games out, and a solid lineup. Aramis Ramirez will bounce back, Starlin Castro is only going to get better, and if Carlos Pena can hit 40 bombs in Wrigley, look out. Plus I think that new manager Mike Quade can let these guys relax and have fun, something they simply couldn't do under Lou Pinella. Of course they'll get knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, remember these are still the Cubbies.

2. St. Louis Cardinals ... The difference here is the monumental loss of Adam Wainwright for the season. But they still have the best pitcher in the division in Chris Carpenter and the best hitter on the planet in Albert Pujols. Who by the way in a walk year might just club 60 homers while hitting .350 with Matt Holliday as protection in the lineup. I don't think Lance Berkman has much left in the tank, but he shouldn't hurt the team too much while he's on the DL.

3. Cincinnati Reds ... Last year the Reds over achieved big time. Sure, Joey Votto is the real deal and Jay Bruce is almost there, but how much longer can Scott Rolen keep it up? The rotation is still a Dusty Baker disaster waiting to happen, and I keep getting the feeling that Aroldis Chapman is going to be wasted in middle relief for a long time. They're still a good team, don't get me wrong, but they're not the best in the Central either.

4. Milwaukee Brewers ... I'm just not buying the Brewers as the team to win this year, plus they just piss me off with their brand of thuggery baseball. I'm looking at you Princess and Eva. They did a great job in mortgaging their future to pick up Zack Grienke and Shawn Marcum but at the expense of having Carlos Gomez (or shudder Nyjer Morgan) in center field and Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop. And the injuries are already starting to pile up on them. Don't believe the hype.

5. YOUR 2011 PITTSBURGH PIRATES ... My official prediction is a 71-91 record. The 14 game turnaround is based on full seasons of Jose Tabata, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen making his first All-Star Game, and Clint Hurdle showing these guys how not to play .209 baseball on the road. The starting pitching is still going to be bad, but maybe a Rudy Owens or Bryan Morris can step up and show something after Paul Maholm gets traded in July. Plus, the hopes of better days from Charlie Morton and James McDonald should propel the Bucs in the standings over ...

6. Houston Astros ... One of these years, the Astros are actually going to collapse, and this should be it. While they have a couple decent lefty starters in Wandy Rodriguez and J.A. Happ, I just don't buy into Brett Myers as the anchor of the staff. They have already lost their starting catcher Jason Castro for the season and their top two shortstops in Clint Barmes for a couple months and Jeff Keppinger for a month. Michael Bourn is about the only interesting player they have right now.

NL West Predictions

2011-03-31T08:33:00.000-04:00

1. Colorado Rockies
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Everyone's picking the World Series champs to repeat in the West, on the heels of their stellar pitching staff. And while it will be a tight race for sure (probably come down to Colorado @ San Francisco the last days of September), I think a breakout season for Dexter Fowler along with the newly minted star power of Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki will be too much for a Giants team looking for full season contributions from a middle infield starring Miguel Tejada and Freddy Sanchez. The Dodgers have the pitching, but if they don't contend early, there could be a firesale with the likes of Andre Ethier, Rafael Furcal and Jonathan Broxton. San Diego is obviously going to miss Adrian Gonzalez a ton, and now have Orlando Hudson pegged in the 3 hole (emphasis on hole) of their lineup. The Diamondbacks have the worst pitching staff in baseball, but at least Zach Duke is on the mend ... 'nuff said.

NL East Predictions

2011-03-30T12:40:00.000-04:00

1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies (wild card)
3. Florida Marlins
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets

Blasphemy! How can anyone NOT pick the Phillies to win? Haven't you heard, with the greatest rotation EVER, they simply can't lose! Yeah, well ... when everyone is that confident, something will fall apart. Sure, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee will be unstoppable, but Roy Oswalt's getting longer in the tooth, and for some reason I could see the Yankees swooping in and trading for a guy like Cole Hamels (who will be a free agent at the end of the year). The Braves are strong enough at the plate and on the mound to give the Phillies a run for their money. It seems like the Marlins are always a .500 team, and have a good young core, again. Broken record. The Nationals are a mess right now, have a dismal rotation, but at least Nyjer Morgan's gone! And the Mets, wow. At least they finally unloaded Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo. I don't think there's a player in baseball I feel worse for than Poor Jason Bay.

AL West Predictions

2011-03-29T12:37:00.000-04:00

1. Oakland Athletics
2. Texas Rangers (wild card)
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Seattle Mariners

Last year, my surprise pick for the division was the Rangers, and that worked out pretty well. Remember that last year everyone's darkhorse was Seattle? Wow. So in 2011 I'm going with Oakland. They have a nice young rotation and did a good job this offseason of shoring up some holes. Nobody will confuse them with an offensive juggernaut like Texas, but they should score enough runs to win a lot of games. Texas is going to be hurting without Cliff Lee - had they re-signed him, I would probably be picking them. The Angels should be a bit better than last year based on having the best rotation in the West. If Vernon Wells can resurrect his career, the Angels could be dangerous. But I would bet against it. After Felix Hernandez pitches, it's 4 days of watching Ichiro. There's nothing else in Seattle to get excited about. When Brendan Ryan is pushing Jack Wilson from shortstop to second base, you know you have it bad.

AL Central Predictions

2011-03-28T12:56:00.000-04:00

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals

The top three teams in this division are all pretty much interchangeable. The White Sox are the popular choice around the league, so that's partly why I have them finishing second. But the main reason I have Detroit winning the division is because my late father was such a diehard Tigers fan. You can be sure that when I'm not cheering the Bucs this year, I'll be cheering on Motown. And truthfully they have every chance of winning the Central crown, with good young pitchers to go with Justin Verlander, and a pretty solid lineup assuming Miguel Cabrera is in it. The White Sox are vastly improved sure, but Peavy is shelved, again. I'm not sold on Adam Dunn being the missing piece either. The Twins are always relevant in the late summer, but the pitching is a bit dicey. Carl Pavano almost never repeats success in consecutive seasons, and if Francisco Liriano doesn't emerge as an ace, they don't contend. The Indians fall in fourth mostly because they're not Kansas City. Both teams will be relevant in a couple of years, but not starting in 2011.

AL East Predictions

2011-03-27T11:50:00.001-04:00

1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. New York Yankees
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

For the better part of a decade at least, this division has been the Yankees, Red Sox and everyone else. Baltimore hasn't been relevant since Jeffrey Maier, Toronto since Joe Carter, or Tampa since, well Carl Crawford I suppose. But this year could shape up to be much different. Boston still looks like the favorite with their starting pitching depth, and the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Crawford. They should end up winning the division by a pretty decent margin. The Blue Jays could surprise a lot of folks with their good young pitchers, and a decent lineup. I think second and third place will be very close, but I give the edge to Toronto because of the Yankees glaring holes in the rotation. The Rays are good, but losing Crawford, Carlos Pena, Matt Garza and Rafael Soriano is too much for any team. Baltimore is on the right track, but have too many weaknesses to compete for 6 months with the others.

Maz in Lego

2011-03-20T20:23:00.002-04:00

Maz in Lego, originally uploaded by tf-oto.

For a side by side, visit here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/5544948650/

How the Pirates Win 82 in 2011

2011-02-16T12:59:00.002-05:00

Not to say it will happen (and I certainly don’t think it will), but it’s fun to think about what the best case scenarios are for the club. Now is the time for optimism. Everyone’s 0-0, players are just now getting back to work, and quite frankly, we need to feel good about the club once in awhile. These are all pretty obvious I know. For “82” to really occur, you’re talking about planets aligning. Dogs and cats living together. Bipartisanship in Washington. So yeah, just about the impossible. While it’s not a team or manager mandated goal, most of us as fans certainly think about the streak constantly. Not a story is written about the Pirates outside of Pennsylvania without mention of it. Who wouldn’t want it to end?

1. The Position Players Must Stay Healthy – One scary thing the Bucs sorely lack right now is depth. Several of the starters are actually better suited as bench/platoon guys (first base, shortstop and right field) so any long stretches of injuries are going to take a toll, and fast. Imagine the scenarios if second base, third base, left field or center field were manned by a backup, and you’ll know exactly what I mean. Adding poor starters to already borderline starters would be devastating.

2. The Starting Pitchers Must Improve – Across the board, improvement is demanded. Maholm needs to get back to his ’09 form. Ollie needs to stay healthy. Correia and McDonald need to give 150+ quality innings, and Morton needs to make the rotation because he deserves it, not because there are no other choices. I'm not at all concerned with the bullpen at this point, just in getting more quality starts.

3. There Need to be 1-2 Impact Rookies – Assuming that at least one of the starters will falter, it’s the arms waiting in the wings in Indy that need to make an impact. Hopefully Brad Lincoln and Rudy Owens will be able to step in mid-summer and make a name for themselves. With a likely Maholm trade around the corner (assuming of course that his nearly $10m club option isn't picked up for 2012 after a Cy Young worthy 2011), it’s time for an influx of pitching talent to hit Pittsburgh this year, like the influx of hitters did last year.

4. We Need 1-2 Career Years – Maybe it’s McCutchen taking it to the next level (.300, 20HR, 50 SB would be nice), Overbay returning to the doubles machine he once was, Skywalker proving that his 2010 was no fluke, Pedro becoming the 40 homer guy we all hope he will be, Tabata discovering a power stroke, Morton finally harnessing his "electric stuff" … someone needs to have that breakout star year. My hope is that Clint Hurdle will be instrumental in this regard.

5. The Rest of the Division Has to Kinda Suck – At first glance, this might seem to be the unlikeliest of all the scenarios, with the Cubs and Brewers joining the Cardinals and Reds as serious contenders to the NL Central Crown, and the Bucs most likely battling the Astros for not last. But hopefully a bit more parity will occur as all the good teams beat up on each other. One thing is for certain, no team is going to run away with this. The early PECOTA projections (which apparently were released in error and are being updated) have the Brewers winning with the division with 86 wins, and the Bucs only 10 games out in 5th. I would say that would make for one hell of an exciting summer!

Go Bucs!

Alex Rodriguez, Details Magazine (2009, Lego)

2011-02-11T12:07:00.002-05:00

Alex Rodriguez, Details Magazine, originally uploaded by tf-oto.

Here's another one.

Willie Mays, "The Catch" (1954, Lego)

2011-02-10T21:13:00.003-05:00

In lieu of blogging, I present my latest project. Recreating great sporting moments, in Lego. While not specifically Pirates related (yet), I figure if anyone is reading this, they're at the very least a casual baseball fan. Enjoy. Hopefully there will be several more of these on the way. I certainly have a long list in mind, and would love to hear of any ideas or Pirate suggestions, aside from the obvious Maz photo to the top right ...

Willie Mays runs down Vic Wertz's blast in the 8th inning of Game 1 of the 1954 World Series. Polo Grounds, NY. Original found here.

The Bucs vs. the NL Central (Pitchers)

2011-01-13T23:27:00.002-05:00

Part 2 of the silly exercise. Kind of depressing actually, I wish I never did this.

Rotation
1. STL (Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook, Kyle Lohse) 3 points
2. MIL (Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, Chris Narveson) 6
3. CIN (Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Travis Wood) 9
4. CHI (Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzelany) 12
5. HOU (Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris, J.A. Happ, Nelson Figueroa) 15
6. PIT (Paul Mahom, Ross Ohlendorf, Kevin Correia, James McDonald, Scott Olsen) 18

But, with a real chance of making it to No. 4!

Bullpen
1. CHI (Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, Sean Marshall) 2 points
2. STL (Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Trever Miller) 4
3. PIT (Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, Chris Resop) 6
4. CIN (Francisco Cordero, Aroldis Chapman, Nick Masset) 8
5. HOU (Brandon Lyon, Wilton Lopez, Mark Melancon) 10
6. MIL (John Axford, LaTroy Hawkins, Takashi Saito) 12

Now if we can only get to the 7th inning with a lead ...

Round Two Totals, and the Final Tally
Since I'm making the rules up as I go, I'll give the following points. I have no logical basis for any of these values whatsoever. Mock away.

1. STL 33 (26 position + 7 pitching)
2. CHI 40 (26+14)
3. CIN 43 (26+17)
4. MIL 47 (29+18)
5. HOU 55 (30+25) and PIT 55 (31+24)

So what do we learn? That we should be battling Houston for the cellar, we already knew that I think. I think St. Louis came out way ahead in all this (obviously their pitching isn't twice as good as the Cubs); they're still the class of the division. Although everyone is totally geeked about the Reds and Brewers, these are still flawed teams in many respects. And the Cubs actually have a chance to be real good (BIG IF Zambrano is an ace again). I don't think the Bucs could approach Milwaukee with the current rotation, unless either Charlie Morton or Brad Lincoln come up huge. Sigh.
LET'S GO BUCS!

The Bucs vs. the NL Central (Position Players)

2011-01-08T12:52:00.002-05:00

A completely unscientific look at how the Bucs are shaping up against the rest of the NL Central. I'm going to first grade the expected starting position players of each squad, and then simply add the numbers up. Part 2 of this silly exercise will be pitching. Add the 2 numbers together, and BAM! we should see where to expect them to fall at the end of 2011. It bears repeating, this is obviously VERY unscientific ... results may vary. I'm just trying to wrap my mind around the competition we'll have this year. I'm going simply by mlbdepthcharts.com. It hurts my head too much to take into account platoons. Please feel free to mock my choices.

First Base
1. Albert Pujols, STL
2. Joey Votto, CIN
3. Prince Fielder, MIL
4. Carlos Pena, CHI
5. Lyle Overbay, PIT (close race for 5/6)
6. Brett Wallace, HOU

Second Base
1. Brandon Phillips, CIN
2. Rickie Weeks, MIL
3. Neil Walker, PIT (with a chance at 1/2)
4. Jeff Keppinger, HOU
5. Skip Schumaker, STL
6. Blake DeWitt, CHI

Shortstop
1. Starlin Castro, CHI
2. Clint Barmes, HOU
3. Ryan Theriot, STL
4. Edgar Renteria, CIN
5. Ronny Cedeno, PIT (only in this division could Ronny be this good)
6. Yuniesky Betancourt, MIL

Third Base
1. Aramis Ramirez, CHI
2. Scott Rolen, CIN
3. Pedro Alvarez, PIT (outside chance at 1/2)
4. Casey McGehee, MIL
5. Chris Johnson, HOU
6. David Freese, STL

Left Field
1. Ryan Braun, MIL
2. Matt Holliday, STL
3. Carlos Lee, HOU
4. Alfonso Soriano, CHI
5. Jose Tabata, PIT (as long as the power ain't there)
6. Jonny Gomes, CIN

Centerfield
1. Andrew McCutchen, PIT (with a bullet)
2. Colby Rasmus, STL
3. Michael Bourn, HOU
4. Marlon Byrd, CHI
5. Drew Stubbs, CIN
6. Carlos Gomez, MIL

Right Field
1. Hunter Pence, HOU
2. Corey Hart, MIL
3. Jay Bruce, CIN
4. Kosuke Fokudome, CHI
5. Garrett Jones, PIT (and this is a homer call too)
6. Lance Berkman, STL

Catcher
1. Yadier Molina, STL
2. Geovany Soto, CHI
3. Ramon Hernandez, CIN
4. Chris Snyder, PIT (lucky to be this high)
5. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL
6. Jason Castro, HOU

Round One Totals
26 CHI, CIN and STL
29 MIL
30 HOU
31 PIT

Coming soon .... pitchers and final results!

Yep, that's me!

2011-01-06T12:59:00.000-05:00

Off Season Progress Report

2010-12-15T13:14:00.000-05:00

Entering the off season, the biggest weaknesses for the club were starting pitching, defense, coaching, and quality corner bats (pretty much in that order). Expectations were high, as Sir Frank suggested during an online MLB chat in November:

Speaking candidly, I have said that we have the capacity to add meaningfully to our 2011 payroll if we are able to secure players who will help us win in Pittsburgh. We have the capacity to have a payroll over $50 million and we'll add those payroll dollars if we are able to bring in players that can help us win.

So suddenly we heard rumors about Jorge de la Rosa, Jon Garland, Adrian Beltre, Brandon Webb, J.J. Hardy, Jason Bartlett. Not exactly the Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford tiers, but still at least mid-pack free agents and trade possibilities. As of now obviously, none of these guys will be wearing the black and gold in 2011. I don't think anyone reasonably believed that the Bucs would secure any of these guys in free agency. Sure, we could all imagine a scenario of Beltre moving Pedro across the diamond, but it just wasn't going to happen. Garland and de la Rosa would have been huge upgrades to the rotation, but neither signed with us either. Why? It's not about money, it's about perception. Until the rest of the league sees and belives that this youth movement is going to lead us out of the current depths of losing, you could double Philadephia's Lee contract and he still wouldn't sign. Not yet.

So the Bucs' front office has done what they can. First, they have upgraded by attrition: Good byes go out to Andy LaRoche, Delwyn Young, Zach Duke, Argenis Diaz and Lastings Milledge. There's a pretty good chance that Ryan Doumit will be traded as well. Secondly, they have added low-risk minor league talent, in hopes of finding lightning in a bottle (Andy Marte, Fernando Nieve, Josh Rodriguez) like they did with Garrett Jones a couple winters ago. And thirdly, they have addressed the weaknesses I laid out at the top of the post.

Starting Pitching: Out with Zach Duke, and in with Kevin Correia. While I don't think Scott Olsen will even make the team, bringing him in to compete for the fifth rotation spot should help motivate Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton to step up. As I said last year, if everything clicks, the starting rotation has a chance to at least be league average. The 7 or 8 guys competing this year are better, and there may be help on the farm as well.

Defense: Any team that doesn't put Lastings Milledge or Ryan Doumit in the field everyday should see an improvement almost immediately. Matt Diaz isn't a huge upgrade defensively, but he's average (something Milledge was not). Adding a Lyle Overbay suddenly means that throws to second base from first base might actually be caught, with a possibility of a pivot relay for a double play. Another year under Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez' belts should mean continued improvement and confidence. A full season of Chris Snyder behind the plate should help. All around the diamond, the D is gradually improving, which in turn improves the starting pitching.

Coaching: Thank God John Russell is gone. Clint Hurdle's hire is huge, as it changes the atmosphere in the clubhouse. He seems like the type of guy that will stand up for his players. I don't know much about his field general tactics, but he's been doing this awhile, unlike Russell who had no major league managing experience before inheriting the ~~'27 Yankees~~ 2008 Pirates. As an aside, I am absolutely livid that Rocco DeMaro was let go by those jerks at Clear Channel. I heard ONE podcast before he got canned, a cool interview he had with the future 2011 Manager of the Year.

Quality Corner Bats: OK, sure ... Adam Dunn's bat would have been nice, but his glove is atrocious. Derrek Lee's glove would have been sweet, but wrist surgery left too many questions. Paul Konerko would've been nice, but there's no way he was leaving Chicago. Carlos Pena didn't even hit .200 for crying out loud, and the Cubs gave him $10,000,000! Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford? Um, no. So who's left? Not much. So the Bucs went out and improved RF by (hopefully) creating a platoon of Matt Diaz and Garrett Jones and improved 1B by (hopefully) creating a platoon of Steve Pearce and Lyle Overbay. The odd man out is probably John Bowker, who perhaps will be packaged with Doumit for a better return. Or possibly he competes with Jones' role. Either way, not great additions, but still baby steps.

I would still like to see the Bucs sign one of Justin Duchscherer, Brandon Webb, or Chris Young in the hopes of finding a top flight ace, but beggars can't be choosers. Not yet at any rate. But soon.

"I'm proud to be a Pirate, and we're not going to back down from anybody."

2010-11-15T12:56:00.000-05:00

Hot Stove Post #1

2010-11-13T14:01:00.000-05:00

I’m going to mix questions 1, 2 and 3 together. Who am I kidding? There’s no way I’m going to write four separate, inter-related posts anytime soon!

Manager

I might guess about the players in the field, but I really have no idea who would be a good manager to hire. I know that I want somebody unlike John Russell. I don’t want triples defense, the pitcher hitting 8th, or a statue in the dugout when your boys are gettin’ thrown at. Somebody with some game (preferably big game) experience. A field general I suppose. If it’s down to these guys, fine. Let’s just get it done so we can focus on what really wins games, players.

Jeff Bannister: No idea. He was a minor league field coordinator for awhile. I’m not sure what that really means, but I’ve never read anything negative about him. I will say that you gotta like a guy who went 1-1 (infield single, 1991) in his entire major league career. Pretty tough to do I imagine.

Clint Hurdle: Actual former manager for 8 years with one NL pennant. It creeps me out a bit that it was with the Rockies (see J. Tracy), but I think I can get past that. It also bothers me that the Bucs are his fallback option in case he doesn't get the Mets gig. But a 105 loss team probably should be I guess.

Go with Hurdle. If not, then go out and find Bannister a kick ass bench coach.

First Baseman/Right Field

These are being combined for obvious reasons. Garrett Jones, Steve Pearce, and John Bowker are all in the mix for playing time at both positions. Throw in the Lastings Milledge Experience, and there are four big ifs for two big positions. Unlike a lot of fans, I think a straight up platoon between Jones and Pearce is a great idea. I’d like to see what Pearce really has in Pittsburgh. I’ve watched him mash here in Indy, and he destroys lefties. A platoon lets Jones know he’s getting his last chance most likely, and who knows, maybe he starts hitting and he gets flipped in July. The question is which position should they platoon at? If it’s right field (my preference), then there’s a chance to improve the infield defense. I really think the Bucs need to add someone here. On the free agent lists, the two names that stand out for me as solid, inexpensive choices are Adam LaRoche and Jeremy Hermida. Either guy would be a good pickup, forcing the Bucs hand one way or the other. I like the flexibility here, but only if another option is brought on. Jones and Milledge are on thin ice, and Bowker and Pearce have their big chances to shine.

Second Baseman

Neil Walker. With his athleticism, his glove and range should continue to improve. Might need a backup though. Unless Jim Negrych starts hitting .400, then it’s either Andy LaRoche or Delwyn Young. We need to hope that one of Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Brian Friday or Chase D’Arnaud emerge as a legitimate prospect, or at the very least a MLB-caliber utility guy.

Shortstop

(Sigh) No … I guess we’re fine here. Ronny Cedeno will be OK. He’s probably, at best, only average with the glove, but that’s enough for 2011. I just don’t see a point in investing free agent dollars here, yet. With all the lesser second base options, and Argenis Diaz and Pedro Ciriaco, the team really needs to watch someone step up. Then maybe for 2012 we can set our sights on bringing Jack Wilson back when he’s a free agent. That was a joke.

Third Base

Pedro Alvarez should be the third baseman for the entire 2011 season. Yes, there’s talk of moving him to 1B if we draft a third baseman, but let's let his bat settle into a slugger groove before teaching him a new position. As much as Adrian Beltre would fit in perfect in our lineup, it makes zero real world sense. For backup options, see exhausted possibilities at second and short.

Left Field

Jose Tabata. I’m sponsoring his page on Baseball-Reference for a reason. The Hit Machine is a gem who will shine even brighter next year. For his backup, see right field.

Center Field

Andrew McCutchen. Backup is Tabata. Next …

Catcher

Chris Snyder will be our starter until Tony Sanchez arrives. Ryan “It Gets By” Doumit is the backup, unless some team is really desperate and stupid enough to trade for him. Which would be pretty sweet! Hopefully his time in right field and at first base is over, just like John Russell’s management career.

Position Player Summary

I think Young, as his superior bench bat will be retained, and Ciriaco will be the other backup infielder. If you add LaRoche or Hermida to the mix, then one of Pearce, Bowker or Milledge have to go. I’d like Milledge gone, but Pearce just got a bonus option, so it’ll probably be him unless an injury occurs in spring training. That would give us 13 position players.

Starting Pitching

The only guys locked into the rotation are Paul Maholm, James McDonald and Ross Ohlendorf. There’s a decent chance we’ve seen the last of Zach Duke. So if the season started now, Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton would set the rotation. Yikes! Since the next wave of pitchers (Bryan Morris, Jeff Locke and Rudy Owens) on the farm have never thrown a pitch in Indianapolis yet, the Bucs need two starters. You have to assume that one of the five will be injured, and it would be nice to use only one of Lincoln/Morton for now. Looking around the free agents, I have my eyes on Jon Garland, ~~Hiroki Kuroda~~, Justin Duchscherer, Jeremy Bonderman and Brandon Webb. I think it’s safe to the same the front office will pick up at least one guy, but hopefully two.

Relief Pitching

Either Joel Hanrahan or Evan Meek will be the closer, and the other will be the eighth inning guy. I have no preference, just who ever can get it done. Guys that will probably make the team are Jeff Karstens, Chris Resop, Will Ledezma and “mystery reliever” …

Early 25-Man Guessing

Jones, Pearce, Walker, Cedeno, Alvarez, Tabata, McCutchen, Hermida, Snyder, Doumit, Young, Ciriaco, and Bowker. Maholm, McDonald, Ohlendorf, Morton, Garland, Bonderman, Hanrahan, Meek, Karstens, Resop, Ledezma, and some other new reliever signing.

Which feels like a team that will lose 90 games.

Beat 'em Bucs!

Waking up from hibernation, but hitting the snooze button

2010-11-09T13:01:00.002-05:00

This is just about the worst time of the sports season. The World Series is over. The last Formula One race is this weekend (Go Fernando!). Basketball has begun, which absolutely bores me to tears until March. Hockey has begun, but just isn’t enthralling until the playoffs. Sure, the NFL is mid-season, but I’m not sure if it’s the pussy-fying of the league or what, but I just can’t seem to care as I have in years past. Maybe it’s because the Colts are weaker this year, don’t know. I can’t even seem to get excited about the family point spread pool.

This is just about the best time of the sports season. While I whittle down my twitter-following to keep non-Pirate news off my feed*, it’s time to turn to the Hot Stove. It’s time to drop $3.00 on the MLB Trade Rumors app, time to start reading all the lists and projections, and time to start thinking about buying my Indianapolis Indians season tickets for next year. It looks like the Tribe should have some decent pitching this year, so the 21 game package might be in order. I’m not too sure how much hitting will be around though ….

*This seems as good as time as any to point out that @newpiratesfan now only serves as a post-notify-only account. If you just want to know when this blog is updated, follow me there. I will actually do my twittering on @tonyframpton, baseball topics and other real-life moments. Please follow or don’t follow appropriately. And if I follow you on one account but not on another, please don’t take offense. I just need to keep my multiple egos separate! Forget that, I'm obviously tweeting at both accounts again ...

Over the next few weeks, I will attempt to answer the following questions:

#1 What do the Pirates need?

#2 What would I do as armchair general manager?

#3 What will the front office actually do?

#4 What can we expect for 2011?

Thanks for reading and/or following!

Let’s Go Bucs!

Playoff Picks

2010-10-06T13:33:00.001-04:00

Just for the fun of it:

Rangers over Rays in 5

Twins over Yankees in 4

Phillies over Reds in 3

Giants over Braves in 4

Rangers over Twins in 6

Phillies over Giants in 7

Phillies over Rangers in 5

Neil Sky Walker

2010-09-08T21:58:00.000-04:00

Inspired by Rumbunter, an actual photoshop master jedi. I think my Morton Girl turned out much better. Learn actual photoshop skills, I must.

"Save my job you will, young skywalker."

Where JR Ranks

2010-08-31T13:00:00.000-04:00

John Russell, through last night's game vs. the Cubs now has a three year record of 172-282 for a .379 winning percentage. Out of morbid curiosity, I decided to launch baseballreference.com this morning, just to see where he ranks among all 669 managers in MLB history, and those who have managed 454+ games.

#1 Doc Protho .301 (138-320)

1939-1941 Philadelphia Phillies (138-320)

#2 John McCloskey .313 (190-417)

1895-1896 Louisville Colonels (37-113)
1906-1908 St. Louis Cardinals (153-304)

#3 Fred Tenney .334 (202-402)

1905-1906 Boston Beaneaters (100-205)
1907 Boston Doves (58-90)
1911 Boston Rustlers (44-107)

#4 Roy Hartsfield .343 (166-318)

1977-1979 Toronto Blue Jays (166-318)

#5 Joe Cantillon .347 (158-297)

1907-1909 Washington Senators (158-297)

#6 Zack Taylor .364 (235-410)

1946 St. Louis Browns (13-17)
1948-1951 St. Louis Browns (222-393)

#7 John Russell .379 (172-282)

2008-2010 Pittsburgh Pirates (172-282)

More Prospects (these of the elite variety)

2010-08-17T12:48:00.001-04:00

After a full week since the last "feel good moment" from your Pittsburgh Pirates (see picture below this post), finally some good news. The signings of high school STUDS Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie instantly make the two the Bucs' best pitching prospects. This helps me forget just how miserable watching baseball has been since the all-star break.

Jameson Taillon 6'6" 225 (compared by many a scout to Roger Clemens and Josh Beckett), fastball near 100mph with wicked movement, and two quality breaking pitches. Could be in Pittsburgh by 2013.

Stetson Allie, 6'4" 225 (who sounds like he should be the Texan) with a big 100mph fastball needs a bit more refinement, probably looking at 2014 before his PBC debut.

There are a whole bunch of other guys signed, but for that info you should be checking out Tim's fine website http://www.piratesprospects.com/ Can you guess what I'll be drinking tonight at trivia? You guessed it. Jameson on the rocks.

Go Bucs!

Oh Hell Yeah

2010-08-08T09:42:00.002-04:00

Matt Freed/Post-Gazette

Post-Trade Post

2010-08-04T21:14:00.001-04:00

The trading deadline has passed, and Sir Neal has managed not to harm the future core, he kept all serviceable starting arms, and has continued his stockpile of average to above average potential talent at the 4A levels. But he did that by decimating our only 2010 strength, the bullpen. All the other blogs and outlets have done all the long exhaustive previews, reviews (and get the page views), so I'll keep it short and sweet:

OUT: Bobby Crosby, Ryan Church and DJ Carrasco IN: Chris Snyder and Pedro Ciriaco

I am flabbergasted that Arizona took the dead weight of Crosby and Church. That alone would warrant this trade a win, but we also received two baseball players! Essentially this is Carrasco for Snyder, which is a great trade. Carrasco will be missed in mop up duty, but he had little chance of hanging around. Snyder should be our starter for the next 2 years, as it looks like the nightmare of Ryan "It Gets By" Doumit behind the plate is over. Thank God. Hopefully Snyder will add a little pop to the lineup, while playing excellent D and handling a young staff. Finally, a real catcher! Nothing too exciting about Ciriaco, just organizational depth, and someone for me to watch in Indianapolis other than Brian Bixler.

OUT: Octavio Dotel IN: James McDonald and Andrew Lambo

Dotel had to go at the deadline. There was no point in keeping a closer for the team playing .350 ball, especially when there were two good internal options. I don't like that JR hasn't named a closer yet, as the committee thing never works. My vote is for Hanrahan in the 9th, Meek in the 8th. McDonald could be interesting, and he gets his first look tomorrow night. If Lambo lays of the weed, who knows? Last year these two guys were the Dodgers best prospects, but then again so was Andy LaRoche once ...

OUT: Javier Lopez IN: John Bowker and Joe Martinez

Easy trade here too, as teams always overpay for situational relievers on July 31. Bowker is basically another Moss or Clement in that he's had some minor league but no major league success. There are a lot of the 1B-OF types suddenly in the system, and I'm wondering if one of these guys could get packaged with Doumit at the winter meetings. We're running out of room for all these options. Not to excited about Martinez, he sounds like another end of rotation starter, possible bullpen guy. We're swimming in these types right now. But still a decent haul for a loogy we didn't really need.

Neal's first priority post-deadline has been addressing the bullpen, just today finding Chris Resop and Chan Ho Park in the trash bins (although I think he needs to focus all his energy in signing BOTH Taillon and Allie in the next couple weeks). The bullpen is an absolute shambles, and hopefully Chan Ho Park can eat the innings that JR would normally give to Meek. Judging by his performance against the Reds last night, it looks to me like Evan's innings needs to be closely monitored, and some twitterer (sorry I can't remember who) even suggested "Joba Rules" for Evan, which is a fantastic idea before JR goes all Dusty on him.

Second Half Goal of 37-37? Currently 7-12, need to finish 30-25. Ugh. Go Bucs.

Jumping to Conclusions (July Edition)

2010-07-22T16:48:00.001-04:00

The Bucs are off and running after the All-Star break, with a 4-2 record. The offensive has been prolific, banging out 77 hits and 50 runs for an average of 8 runs and 12 hits a night. The pitchers have only given up 26 runs during that stretch, a touch over 4 a game. I’ll take 8-4 games every day of the week. The team is now over .500 at PNC and Pedro “El Toro” Alvarez is scorching the ball. But it’s the latter part of July, so let’s not get too excited. The top team in the National League, (yes) the San Diego Padres are coming in this weekend, and good pitching could undo all this enthusiasm. Plus … there’s the inevitable trading deadline approaching.

Here are the guys in play before 7/31:

Octavio Dotel, Chance 90%

I like the Big O, but he’s got to go at the deadline. I hope it’s with Duke or a reliever so the haul is better, but it doesn’t really matter. Teams in last place shouldn’t worry about saves, and there are two worthy options to close in Hanrahan (my preference) and Meek.

DJ Carrasco, Chance 80%

A guy who’s affordable and replaceable. Somewhere there’s a contender that needs a swing guy, but I’ll let the fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors sort that out. He should go.

Zach Duke, Chance 70%

Dukie might be a worthwhile chip right now. He was decent in his last outing against the Brewers, and if he pitches well in Colorado next Tuesday, he might just go. I like Zach, but if we can get a legitimate SS prospect out of a desperate contender, then go for it. I’d rather it was at his expense that Paulie’s.

Paul Maholm, Chance 50%

As much as I hate to say it, he sure would look good in Dodger blue. But we can’t be trading away our only consistently decent starter unless you’re getting a prospect shortstop like Dee Gordon back. Probably wouldn’t get that without packaging him with a reliever. Plus he’s extended reasonably for the PBC. I say keep him unless overwhelmed.

Andy Laroche, Chance 20%

I’m not sure what market there is for him, but he could be a throw-in in a bigger deal. His natural position is gone and he’s not going to second base anytime soon, so he might as well move on.

Ryan Doumit, Chance 0%

His stock is low, his defense is crap, and now he’s on the DL with a concussion. I think Neal is going to regret not moving him when he had a chance, was healthy and productive for a stretch.

GO BUCS!

Opening Day 2010 #2

2010-07-16T15:29:00.000-04:00

A Modest Goal ...

(30-58) + (37-37) = 67-95

Pride!

Passion!

Pittsburgh Pirates!

Time to hit the RESET button

2010-07-14T18:36:00.008-04:00

Needless to rehash, but the first half of this season as been an unmitigated disaster. Around the diamond, Jeff Clement and Aki! Iwamura are in Indianapolis, Andy LaRoche has turned into a useless bench player, and Ryan Church has stole playing time from Lastings Milledge. Ryan Doumit is the worst catching catcher in the game, Charlie Morton has completely imploded, and the rotation is hanging by a thread. The team has had way too many cold stretches, with barely a couple tepid ones. The front office has been a public relations disaster zone, and John Russell continues to be employed.

So what do the Pirates do in the second half? Here's what I think should happen.

Trade Ryan Doumit and one of Dotel, Lopez, Carrasco, Donnelly

As far as the trading deadline is concerned, there are few chips worth moving. While arms like Dotel, Lopez, Carrasco and Donnelly should be available, they really won't bring much help to Pittsburgh. But perhaps by bundling a guy with Ryan Doumit, it might yield a true shortstop prospect. And no, I don't see the return of Brian Bixler as particularly encouraging. If Dotel is gone, then Meek or Hanrahan step into the closer role. Would Tampa give up Brignac, whom we almost got for Jason Bay? Is Neal thinking of trying to move Bobby Crosby or Ronny Cedeno? I don't see the point really unless it's again a package trade with someone else. Paul Maholm is probably the only other pitcher worth considering moving, but it would probably take an injury to a contender to consider that. Maybe something pops up, but I'd rather keep any and all arms we have.

Call up Erik Kratz and Jeff Clement

Kratz probably will be up soon enough anyway with Jason Jaramillo demoted - probably after tonight's minor league all-star game since there's an open roster slot, and currently no backup catcher. When Doumit is traded, let's try Clement as the back up catcher. It's his natural position, and taking some pressure off his bat might just spark it. I'd say go straight platoon. We're waiting until at least 2012 for Tony Sanchez anyway, so we might as well see what our options are for 2011 behind the plate are now, in this lost season.

Give up on Ryan Church

Duh. The guy is sporting a 186/240/321 line while a suddenly red-hot Lastings Milledge is carrying a 276/347/392 line. Give up on this "showcasing" Church for a trade nonsense. Even if he hit .600 the next 2 weeks, still nobody wants him. He's our fifth best outfielder right now, even behind Delwyn Young. He's barely a defensive replacement at this point. Stop, we've had enough. I hope he gets designated for assignment.

Sign Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie for big bucks

We need to show the kids on the roster right now that there's another wave coming, and signing these two guys is the quickest, and most efficient way of doing that. We need stud pitching prospects, and after Bryan Morris, there's really nobody else. It would also show that this regime is willing to spend the money where it's needed most right now. If the front office let's these kids get away, then it had better be house cleaning time.

Get on a roll

After a deflating sweep in Milwaukee, this team limped into the all-star break at exactly the most needed time. Taking four days off should help cure what ails them. Hopefully Zach Duke is healthy and ready to start this roll. The next ten games are all at home, the first seven of them against Houston and Milwaukee. Of the next 39 games, 27 of them are in comfy PNC, where amazingly this .341 team is playing one game under .500 .... which only proves how awful we've been on the road. Let's all hope Ryan Doumit starts swinging a hot bat, so he can be shipped off to the American League as soon as possible.

C'mon ... BEAT 'EM BUCS!

Photos from July 4th @ Victory Field

2010-07-05T20:53:00.001-04:00

Shots from the 6th straight loss from the home team:

A meeting on the mound early on. Charlie Morton got off to a rough start.

Charlie's opponent, ex-roider, Edison Volquez was much sharper.

As you might have guessed, Volquez went 0-2 with 2 K's ... rough swing plane.

The swing of Alex Presley (it was an out).

I know the purists hate this kind of stuff, but hey, it's minor league baseball on the 4th of July and the 15,000 fans deserve Zooperstar entertainment! L-R: Pee Wee Geese, Elephant Presley and Harry Canary.

Charlie settled down a bit, but that stat line above shouldn't be Pirate material just yet ...

SS Doug Bernier makes a throwing error.

The lonely multi-millionare.

Aki, walking off an inning ending double play.

Daniel (@The_Dude_41) Moskos. Can't help but to like this kid.

And .... YOU'RE OUT!

As always, more pictures from Victory Field are available at my flickr page. Thanks for visiting. Go Tribe! Beat 'em Bucs!

Never Forget

2010-06-28T08:57:00.000-04:00

Jumping to Conclusions, June Edition

2010-06-26T19:48:00.000-04:00

The Pirates starting pitching is worse than I ever possibly could have imagined. I really saw hope here in April, but now there is nobody I have faith in to go 5 innings. At the beginning of the year I can’t believe I wrote:

In year's past, this has been the Bucs achilles heel but no so this year, as they have a chance to be at least league average if not better. But that is assuming that the defense is at least league average as well, which right now is a BIG IF - this rotation doesn't strike many guys out. Zach Duke has earned the right to take the ball on Opening Day, and seems to have really settled into a groove. Ollie could be due for another step forward. Maholm should be stronger now, hopefully not hiding any injuries again. But the real gem in this group I think will be Charlie Morton. These top 4 have a real shot at winning 10-15 games a piece now that the bullpen is much improved. The 5 spot is a toss up at this point, and Daniel McCutchen deserves his shot after Kevin Hart looked lost in Spring Training. Now granted, there is no true ace in this bunch, but the mantra here is depth depth depth. Remember also that Brad Lincoln (and maybe Donnie Veal) are waiting in the wings. In Kerrigan I trust.

Wow, how terribly off I was. I thought they could be league average?!?!! Wow, someone really spiked my kool-aid, because they are easily league worst. Duke has been erratic, and now finds himself on the DL. Maholm’s been decent, but by no means dominating, and probably league average. Ohlendorf has had some bad luck (and a DL spell) but nevertheless pretty uninspiring and an 0-6 record to boot. And of course Morton has been dreadful, and is now pitching in Indianapolis. Granted he had a fantastic start the other night, but he’s going to need several more of those for management to roll the dice on bringing him back up. McCutchen was pretty bad in his brief tenure, and gets another chance in a spot start tonight vs Oakland. Hart and Veal are out for a year. Finally, Brad Lincoln, who was supposed to slot neatly into the rotation has been rushed up, and while he has show a few flashes of potential, he isn’t ready yet. Once I thought the top 4 were all capable of winning 10-15 games on their own (not all at once mind you), now Maholm is the only guy with a shot of winning 10. Jeff Karstens is probably our #2 right now. Eek. Of the other dreadful starters that have taken the hill, Burres is in Indianapolis, Jakubauskas got two guys out before being drilled in the head, and Eveland had no business coming here, and was recently DFA’d. Oh yeah, and then there’s always Hayden Penn! Quite a rotation you’re building Neal! The Bucs had better sign those high school kids, or else 2012 is looking as dim as 2011 and 2010.

If you’re looking for a ray of hope, well so am I. Now that all the chips are on the table, with Jose, Pedro, Neil and Brad on the big club it’s time to build that dynasty Frank thinks is here. Jose looks comfortable at leadoff playing next to Andrew, but he's sill very young. I think the average will start coming up, if if the power doesn't. Pedro looks terribly over matched at the plate, as he's pressing too much. He started slow at all levels, and will eventually succeed but it will take the better part of the summer. Neil just got the weekend off thanks to Church's errant knee (once JR finally put him in right and DH'd Millie, d'oh!) ... and Brad, see above.

Yeah, I’m pretty bitter right now, because the team is under performing. They absolutely should not be 20+ games under .500 right now, and it's time to lay some blame, hold accountable etc ... It's time for a sweeping management change. Russell and Beasley need to be shown the door, extensions be damned. It’s laughable that they’re still around. Replace them with Fredi Gonzalez and Frank Kremblas.

Next month: How trading Maholm, Doumit, Lopez and Dotel will make this team even worse!

Pedro, finally!

2010-06-16T12:40:00.001-04:00

IMG_9193, originally uploaded by tf-oto.

No more excuses about a lack of talent, holding prospects until they're ready, contractural reasons, yadda yadda yadda. The kids are all up now, and the future is now. When Pearce is healthy, it's time to kick Milledge to the 4th OF spot, and ditch Church. Hopefully Aki-san gets his walking papers this afternoon.

This is the kid that might just save Russell's job. Here's what we should be looking like tonight, but you never know with JR.

Tabata LF
Walker 2B
McCutchen CF
Jones 1B
Doumit C
Alvarez 3B
Milledge RF
Cedeno SS
Duke P

BEAT 'EM BUCS!

2 Huge Days Coming Up

2010-06-06T16:15:00.002-04:00

The next two days are going to be HUGE. First, Mr. Huntington Monday night has to decide where next to take the franchise - as we all know the Bucs have the second overall pick tomorrow. Then Tuesday is the already way-over hyped Strasburg debut. Fortunately the Bucs have played well against the best pitchers in the league this year - it's the mediocre and poor starters which have given us fits. Jeff Karstens will match up, as he's come up big before for the Bucs (after the horrible Milwaukee fiasco earlier this year). There had been some talk of calling Brad Lincoln up for this game, but I really don't like the idea. Sure, he could probably handle the pressure, might just pitch well, and it would make a great story (Mr. Lincoln Comes to Washington) ... but the front office has done a very good job so far of calling guys up not when the pressure is on to do so, but when the player is ready. Recent examples are the blistering hot former first round picks, and 1-2 hitters in the lineup right now! Sure arbitration clocks are a factor, but it's not a case of being cheap, it's a case of being smart. Fret not, Brad will be up soon, but not for ESPN and MLB Network's sake. He'll be up when he set to succeed. Just so happens that that will probably coincide with one of our soft tossing lefties moving to a contender around the end of July. But back to Monday ...

The Nationals have to take Bryce Harper, right? If for some asinine reason they don't, then the Bucs HAVE to draft and sign him, and make him the next new face of the franchise. I would love to have Harper, but there's maybe only a 1% chance Washington passes on him. But we can dream. More likely is the question of Jameson Taillon, the highly coveted high school righty and prep star shortstop Manny Machado, dubbed by some as A-Rod Light. While I have my preference, it really doesn't matter which guy Neal picks. You have to take the most talented guy on the board, and Neal has over-and-over again reiterated that's what's they'll do. Ultimately I think we're going to take Taillon, but I'm leaning towards Machado. Pitching in the low-mid minors is a strength of the franchise, but there are very few high upside position players in the minors. While you're not supposed to draft on positional need, it's no secret that stud prospect middle infielders are in low supply in the pipeline. The franchise needs more good hitters, plain and simple. But since we're talking about 2A and 2B type talents, either way Neal goes will work - you can never have enough good pitching. The most important thing is to SIGN the guy you choose.

Oh, and I'm really digging the mustaches, but Ronny Cedeno is mailing it in. Gotta try dude, no sharpies.

BEAT 'EM BUCS!

Memorial Day Game

2010-06-03T22:04:00.001-04:00

IMG_0702, originally uploaded by tf-oto.

Got to see the Monday game (great outing by Ollie, beat the cubs) ... here's my iPhone screen grab off mlb.tv right after Andy LaRoche's stellar throw to end an inning. Yes, that's me high fiving some random fan , rockin' my yellow Clemente jersey on the right hand side, third row. We had awesome seats (since it'll be the only visit to PNC this year) ... GO BUCS!

1980 Future Stars

2010-05-22T15:58:00.000-04:00

A couple weeks ago I found myself attending my first baseball card show in about a quarter century. I sold off 95% of my card collection in the late 90's, but don't miss much of it because it was mostly the pulp 80's Topps that are barely worth their weight in cardboard. What was different about this trip down memory lane was that I was now digging for any Topps Pirates I could find. And I found at least 100 or so for maybe a couple sawbucks. Growing up in Maine in the 80's, my baseball card obsession consisted mainly of a huge Red Sox collection, along with as many Eric Davis, Bo Jackson and Gregg Jefferies' rookie cards I could get my hands on because supposedly they were the next wave of superstars. There were a few specific players I collected as well, such as Joe Morgan, Robin Yount, Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker - I had an obsession with middle infielders. I always imagined myself as a second baseman or a shortstop in real baseball, if I ever played it. Sadly, I could never get over my fear of the ball. I would bail out at the plate, and turn my body to miss grounders. The game was never meant to be played by me. If I could take that quantum leap back in time, I certainly would have forced myself to man up and play ball. But back to reality I snap - the best I have is an abnormal obsession with the game, and now a fresh binder full of Pirates past glory. I will try and share my joy and discovery with a few of the new Pirate cards I now own.

First up, 1980 Topps #683 Pirates Future Stars. Dorian Boyland, Alberto Lois and Harry Saferight are the 3 future stars to the '79 World Champs? Not a one of these have I ever heard of. Fortunately, they're just a google search away .... Dorian Boyland, or "Doe" as he was called could have been the heir apparent to Pops, but somehow only managed to play in 21 games over three seasons, hitting a robust .105, and posting a -28 OPS+. The University of Wisconsin grad who was a second rounder in 1976 made a name for himself in auto sales, owner of the six-state Boyland Auto Group, and apparently is doing quite well for himself outside of baseball .... Alberto Lois was primarily a speedy pinch runner in his two-year, fourteen-game career, once dubbed the next Roberto - his bio is here. Sadly his career came to an and when the truck he was driving crashed as he was trying to beat a train; six passengers were killed and he injured his eye .... and then there is Harry Saferight, who is among a small group of players known as "phantom major leaguers". Three times, Harry was on deck, watching the guy at the plate make the third out. After twelve seasons in the minors, at least skipper tried to give him a shot.

When it rains it pours

2010-05-17T21:50:00.000-04:00

Jumping to Conclusions (May Edition)

2010-05-13T14:45:00.000-04:00

Time to jump to some conclusions, with a current four game losing streak, including a ominous sweep by the Reds in which the PBC managed 1 run and 10 hits in 27 innings. Let's start with the stats. The Bucs are 14-20, good enough for fifth place in the NL Central. Thankfully the Astros are dead last, but may not be for long. They’re only a game and a half behind us, and have won 3 in a row, and are going for a sweep of the Cardinals (in St. Louis!) this afternoon. The hitting has been really poor, .232 BA (27/30) .303 OBP (29/30) .353 SLG (28/30). The pitching has been really poor (but somehow actually getting better so I won’t worry about that just now), 5.80 ERA (30/30) 1.60 WHIP (30/30). The starters are killing us, but Morton is very slowly showing signs of hope, and Ollie’s return is huge. The bullpen actually hasn’t been too terrible.

Whipping Boy #1: Aki Iwamura

The highest paid Pirate is leading off with a 169/267/246 line. The only thing I can think is that he must have naked pictures of Russell the Magnificent, because he sure as hell hasn’t earned playing time. I’d give Aki the 10 games before the FO comes up with a phantom DL trip, and Walker gets recalled. Probably need to get Cedeno healthy first, for depth’s sake.

Whipping Boy #2: Lastings Milledge

Don’t get me wrong, I like the kid and his potential, but eventually you have to question why a corner outfielder is only hitting 241/302/310. He has shown none of the power he once had since in Pittsburgh (4 HR’s in 336 at bats), and with his wrist seemingly fully healed he should be breaking out. But he’s not. But we can’t give up on him because he’s pals with Cutch. Tough spot to be in, but he at least should be platooning right now with Church.

Whipping Boy #3: Jeff Clement

Another guy I am fond of, and really want to see do well. His D has been satisfactory while unspectacular, but he’s just lost at the plate (176/228/306). The FO isn’t ready to give up on him, and I still think he’ll turn it around, but come June 14 if he’s still below the Mendoza Line, look for him to be sent to Indy.

Whipping Boy #4: John Russell

I’m just about ready to say he needs to go. He’s shown little competence in making lineups, or motivating the troops. It’s time for some accountability. He’s got until June 14 as well; if the Bucs don’t show some passion by then, I would like to see a hard ass like Frank Kremblas step in from Indianapolis. Could it be much worse?

Evan Meek and Andrew McCutchen look like the only possible All-Stars right now. I’d say ‘Cutch gets it on reputation alone. I won’t get into bringing the kids up from Indy just yet, that can wait until June. Pedro, Jose and Brad are not going east just yet. Probably not until the annual trade season begins.

Go Bucs!

3rd Times a Charm: Charlie Morton

2010-04-25T14:22:00.003-04:00

Elizabeth Barrett Browning's Letters addressed to R. H. Horne, 1839:
‘The luck of the third adventure’ is proverbial.

This is the earliest finding of the phrase I could find. The last version is my watching Charlie Morton's start today. The first time I cheered for him on this blog was an ugly day in Wrigley last summer. The second time I posted excitement for a start of was my twittering of last week's Brewer Debacle. Now, here I go again. Maybe I should be searching "glutton for punishment" instead?

Pictures from Victory Field, 4/22/10

2010-04-23T22:41:00.000-04:00

Thursday night was the first of many many battles to come between Aroldis Chapman and Pedro Alvarez. A few pics I took at the game are below. I should attend about a dozen games this year, and will post the best of each game. The rest will go into this flickr set. Slideshows of various games can be found at the right as well.

Pedro Alvarez and Steve Pearce warm up pre-game

new jw marriott and fancy video scoreboard

Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman, dealing for the Louisville Bats

Chapman caught Jose Tabata leaning the wrong way, picked him off first

Pedro singles sharply against Chapman, his only hit of the night

Jeff Karstens deals for the Indianapolis Indians

Chapman and Pedro

Chapman's reading on the gun

this pitch actually sailed behind Brandon Moss

Chapman tries to bunt for a hit, actually looked pretty comfortable at the plate

Manager Frank Kremblas arguing that Steven Jackson didn't

intentionally bean a guy one pitch after giving up a long home run

"Let's Go Jose" Tabata

Jose Tabata flies out late in the game

"The Natural" Pedro Alvarez

Lacking in Confidence

2010-04-22T12:14:00.000-04:00

Dejan's PBC blog has this image (from Peter Diana) up this morning which instantly led me to wonder how worried John Russell is. Nobody has ever accused me of being a particularly good manager or motivator of people, but I think maybe showing a little emotion and a little confidence might just help rally the troops when you've been ~~outscored~~ spanked 16-1 at home (after a sweep of the Reds) against a team that's had your number for a couple years now.

C'mon JR, your job really isn't that safe ... maybe deep down he realizes that.

Mr. C and Opening Night

2010-04-17T15:22:00.003-04:00

The only pic I took from Opening Night as I was focusing on beer, Pedro, and good times. The one conclusion I drew from last night, is that this lineup should look good sometime very soon:

1. Tabata RF
2. McCutchen CF
3. Jones 1B
4. Alvarez 3B
5. Doumit C
6. Milledge LF
7. Cedeno SS
8. Pitcher
9. Iwamura 2B

Jumping to Conclusions (April Edition)

2010-04-16T12:34:00.000-04:00

Now 9 games into the 2010 season, it seems like the perfect time to draw some drastic conclusions ...

Pitching is Horrible: The Bucs own the major league worst ERA at 7.38 and second worst WHIP of 1.68!The bullpen has actually been decent while overworked, because the starters are really stinking up the joint. Last year they got off to a good start then faded. What happens if this group fades? Taking away the 6.1 innings from Burres and Penn (.615 batting average against) helps a little, but the fact that Duke is the only dependable starter right now (with Ollie probably shelved for a couple weeks) still doesn't bode well. Maholm has been OK, and Morton and McCutchen have been awful. Charlie needs to step up, he's my pick for Bucs Cy this year! Ouch! Calling Brad Lincoln ... can you hear me now?

Hitting is OK: Middle of the pack here ... there have been some unsustainable surprises in the lineup, primarily Ronny "Whole New Ballgame" leading the regulars with a .323 average, and Aki slugging .472! 'Cutch has swiped 5 bags early on, and the Bucs are tied for second in the majors with 10 steals in 10 attempts. And begrudgingly, I will admit that so far the John Russell Pitcher Hitting Eighth Experience seems to be rocking (see Cedeno). The lines of Andy Laroche (.222/.344/.333) and Jeff Clement (.136/.200/.273) are begging for Pedro and Pearce (and Tabata oh my), who are off to good starts in Indy.

It's a miracle that we're 4-5 right now (when you look at the minus 26 run differential). Let's see if three against the Reds at home this weekend can right the ship a bit. Duke, (maybe) Ollie and Maholm. Quality pitching please ... let's build some momentum before Eva and Princess come to town!

Beat 'em Bucs!

2010 Opening Day Pirates Preview

2010-04-05T10:03:00.001-04:00

Happy Opening Day Pirate Fans,

Obviously nobody really expects this team to be in the playoff hunt. Even 82 is a pipe dream, but getting close to that isn't a stretch. since all the division foes not playing in St. Louis are weaker than last year, it's only reasonable that the Bucs should claw back up into the middle this year. It remains to be seen if the Great Purge is indeed over, as there is still a catcher, a couple infielders, and a couple starting lefties that could generate interest this summer. But there is a foundation being poured right now, as the front office has attested to:

President Frank Connelly: [The atmosphere in spring training] "is much different in terms of the enthusiasm level, the excitement. . . and the feeling by the players that are here that they are part of the future, they are part of this team's long-term future. They are all looking forward to being part of the team that this year turns this franchise around."

Chairman of the Board and Owner Bob Nutting: "Expectations are higher. A good start would be very important. At the same time, I think we are going to see throughout the season additions into the team, I would hope. We're going to start with a strong team ... The expectation is they're going to come out prepared to win, prepared to play hard every single day."

Starting Pitching
1. Zach Duke
2. Ross Ohlendorf
3. Paul Maholm
4. Charlie Morton
5. Daniel McCutchen

The Bullpen

Octavio Dotel
Joel Hanrahan (DL)
Brendan Donnelly
Evan Meek
Javier Lopez
Jack Taschner
DJ Carrasco
Hayden Penn

There has been plenty of turnover in this group, and all for the better. Matt Capps, his bloated ERA, and "Big Bull Rider" is gone. Assuming that Hanrahan is 100%, the back end of the bullpen with Meek looks pretty good. Even if Dotel falters, then there are at least two or three guys that call step into his role. The swing/mid-inning guys are Penn and Carrasco, and a couple lefties in Lopez and Taschner should be fine. I would have rather had Veal as Lopez' lefty pal, but sending him to Indy to start isn't a bad idea.

The Lineup
1. Aki Iwamura
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Garrett Jones
4. Ryan Doumit
5. Lastings Milledge
6. Jeff Clement
7. Andy LaRoche
8. Pitcher (not a fan of this)
9. Crosby/Cedeno

The biggest question mark of the season has to be the offense. The lineup is a bit thin right now, as nobody really knows yet what we can expect from Jones, Milledge or Clement. Fortunately, April tends to be more of a pitcher's month (pure specualtion on my part rather than actual statistical anaylsis). McCutchen is probably our default All-Star now, and should continue to improve, perhaps even to a .300 average with a bit more speed. Iwamura is league average at best and just seems to be trade fodder. I think Jones will settle in as a .280/20/90 kind of guy which is plenty productive for now. Doumit is a wild card because when he's healthy he's good. But he has to be healthy. In a shortened trial witrh the Bucs last year, Milledge had a decent enough debut. Hopefully with his wrist injury past him he'll regain some of his power stroke.  I think he does. Clement's future is certainly in question, but the front office is doing the exact thing they should right now. Give him a shot to succeed, and if he doesn't, then Jones slots in nicely to replace him. It's a win-win proposition (at least for April 2010). LaRoche has probably shown what he can do already, and hopefully it's not leading the team in RBI's again with 64. He's simply a placeholder at this point for Pedro, who should make this lineup much more potent around June 18th against Cleveland at home. What a perfect scenario. The conventional wisdom seems to be that Andy will slot over at 2B. If Iwamura gets traded at the deadline, then that might just work out OK.  Hopefully Crosby/Cedeno (take your pick at this point) can at least go .250 with 10 homers and play average defense. I'd rather see Bobby Crosby.

The Bench
Ryan Church
John Raynor
Cedeno/Crosby
Jason Jaramillo
Delwyn Young

Church and Young are good pinch hitters, Raynor is fast, and Andrew's backup. C&C Shortstop Factory and a backup catcher. Tough to get too excited about the bench, sorry.

Conclusion
This is Russell's team now, as there are likely no more summer roster purges, no more excuses. If healthy, it's entirely possible Doumit could be traded with the thought of Jaramillo/Kratz holding down 2011 until Sanchez arrives in 2012. If Lincoln dazzles in his debut (most likely when one of the starters is injured this summer) then it's also entirely possible that Maholm or Duke get moved. Iwamura could be traded when Pedro arrives, as Andy and Delwyn can fight it out for 2B. Church could be moved if/when Tabata arrives. What's promising about these potential moves however are unlike the Bay, Nady, McLouth, Wilson, and Sanchez trades, these would be done because someone is stepping into a role because of potential logjams, rather than creating a hole for prospect depth. The future is here this summer.

Not so Bold Predictions
Wins:  77, 4th place. They won't truly sniff .500 this year, but will improve 15 games on last year's 62-99. The much malingned 19-46 post-trade record at the end of last year is history, as this is now a budding team, not a collection of strangers with no idea of their roles and abilities. Russell saves his job, barely.

Bucs' MVP: Andrew McCutchen. (runner up: Lastings Milledge)
Bucs' CY: Charlie Morton.  (runner up: Zach Duke)
Bucs' Breakout: Lastings Milledge. (runner up: Jeff Clement)
Bucs' Rookie: Brad Lincoln. (runner up: Pedro Alvarez)

BEAT 'EM BUCS!

Rest of the Picks

2010-03-15T23:32:00.004-04:00

National League East
1. Philadephia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves (wild card)
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

I'm not sure I've seen or read anything to suggest that anyone can compete with a healthy Philadephia, especially with Cy Holladay. Atlanta is much closer than before; if Heyward is rookie of the year, all bets are off. Pitching depth gets them to October. Pesky Florida finishes third, Bay isn't a savior, and Washington is still Washington for a couple more years at least.

National League West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres

I'm surprising myself and picking SF to win the division, mostly because they have one of the best rotations in baseball. Not sure where the hitting is, maybe Posey. Not sure it matters. The Rox fall just short, as Jim Tracy proves he's not the next great manager. The Dodgers are thin all around, without the resources to change anything. Without a healthy Webb, the snakes are dead. The Padres play in pretty San Diego.

American League East

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox (wild card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays

The Bronx machine will continue their domination (real shocker, I know) all the way into November. While admittedly more intriguing, and probably a better team this year, the Pesky Underdog Red Sox will fall just short once again. Then they'll flame out to the Yankees in October. Huh, this story sounds familiar. Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Toronto fall right into place in the standings.

American League Central

1. Chicago White Sox
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

Ozzie Guillen can't screw this hand he's been dealt, can he? A full season of Peavy and Buehrle should be enough to win this division. Detroit and Minnesota are nearly equals, and should be a half dozen games shy of the wild card, at best. Kansas City finshes fourth primarily on Greinke's Cy arm, but also because Cleveland is really awful.

American League West

1. Texas Rangers
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Oakland Athletics

Texas is my flyer, look like a genius or a fool pick. Seattle is of course the consensus favorite with a great offseason, but Ian Snell is their third starter, so it better rain a lot in Seattle this year. Eventually the Angels have to regress, and by doing nothing to replace Figgins and Lackey, this is the year. Oakland is building an interesting core, like always.

2010 NL Central Preview

2010-03-12T12:22:00.000-05:00

It's that time of year when everyone gets out their crystal balls ...

The NL Central this year is basically the Cardinals and everyone else. There used to be a second and third tier of teams, but not so in 2010. The Cubs and Brewers have come down a bit, the Reds and Bucs have risen a bit, and the Astros are falling like a lead balloon. I would be shocked if the wild card came out of this division; aside from the Cardinals, everyone else will probably fall somewhere within the 75-85 win range. Of course, you know where I hope the Bucs will land ... while a 20 win surge would be extraordinary, it's not completely unrealistic when you look at their direct competition. So, let's looks at them:

1. St. Louis Cardinals (2009: 91-71, first place)

This is a true no brainer, as this team is stacked top to bottom. They could very well win 100 games with a full season of Pujols and Holliday hitting 3-4 and Carpenter and Wainwright leading the rotation. Their own truly question spot is the rookie Freese at 3B, but something tells me he will do just fine. As far as I'm concerned, they're right up there with the Phillies, as the NL favorites. There's nobody in the division even close, barring the unpredictables like injuries. Prediction: 98-64

2. Cincinnati Reds (2009: 78-84, fourth place)

Pretty conventional and popular pick this year I know, but to me they're the head of the mid-tier class of teams. My guess is they win about 85 games, with a late season surge from Volquez. You know Dusty Baker wouldn't resist throwing him out there in a push for the playoffs. If fact, I hope for his own sake that Chapman stays in the minors, otherwise a perfectly good your arm might just fall off from overuse. The lineup looks pretty good too; the addition of Cabrera at shortstop is huge, as now the only lineup holes are the left field rotation and at catcher. Expect Votto to start garnering MVP votes. Prediction: 86-76

3. Milwaukee Brewers (2009: 80-82, third place)

I have absolutely grown to despise this team in the last two years, predominately because of the whining of ~~Eva~~ Ryan Braun and Princess Fielder. But any team with those guys healthy and productive should be average at least. The pitching is the obvious achilles heel; after Gallardo and Wolf, it's pretty bleak. It should make for a lot of 9-8 games in Milwaukee. And another cause for worry is that Jim Edmonds is actually still in the hunt for playing time. Yes, the same Jim Edmonds that was last seen hitting .178 for the Padres in 2008. This is a franchise that missed their window. Prediction: 82-80

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (2009: 62-99, sixth place)

I will do a Pirate-specific post later. Goal is 82-80. Prediction 77-85

5. Chicago Cubs (2009: 83-78, second place)

I would be real worried if I was a northsider fan. In the OF, Soriano is toast, and Byrd is overrated. Nady had his career year, and Fukudome is average at best. A lot rides on the rotation, and Lilly won't be ready on opening day. Dempster might be regressing a bit from his career year of '08, and the bullpen is very thin following the loss of Guzman. ARam and Lee are the only steadies. Soto had an awful sophmore slump and is probably due for a correction. About the best thing I can say is at least Milton Bradley is 1000 miles away. Trammell might suplant Pinella mid season if the wheels come off. Prediction 74-88

6. Houston Astros (2009: 74-88, fifth place)

Old team, no direction, no help in the minors. Oswalt and Berkman are not the reliable studs they once were. They have huge holes at SS and C, and 3B/2B aren't exactly locked in. The lone bright spots are outfielders Bourn and Pence. It's time for a firesale rebuilding mode, so if they're not competitve at the deadline, they have got to move Oswalt and Berkman while they still have some value. New comer Brad Mills has is work cut out for him. Prediction 71-91

Lack of posts

2010-02-28T11:58:00.000-05:00

My feeble new season's attempt at a regular schedule (Wednesdays and Sundays) is being interrupted this week, due to the salt water of the Caribbean and 88 degree days ... So sorry!

Revising the 27 Man

2010-02-24T20:28:00.005-05:00

With Hanrahan possibly shelved for April 5, it seems to make sense to me to throw him on the DL to open the year, when there are fewer games in April. He's the pitcher (26) in the equation. Number 27 hasn't emerged yet, but we're still a few days away from playing ball. Tuesday is Manatee-Sarasota, followed by the WFC Yankees on Wednesday. Added to the right, a rough spring training schedule.

I'm still guessing an outfielder, and here's revised draft on the 27 man. Changes in bold.

Starters: Paul, Ross, Zack, Charlie and Kevin

Relievers: Dotel, Donnelly, Meek, Lopez, Jaku, Carrasco and Jackson

Starting 8: Doumit, Clement, Iwamura, Crosby, LaRoche, Milledge, McCutchen, Jones

Bench: Jaramillo, Cedeno, Raynor, Church, Moss and yes, Neil Walker! Something about his enthusiasm and eagerness to try anything to stick might just work. Uber-utility guy, needs to hit more though. I'm rooting for him.

26 - Hanrahan

27 - Someone up there on the bench.

Sounds of Spring Optimism

2010-02-21T11:17:00.001-05:00

Saturday, 2/20/10: Joe Kerrigan loves rhp Brad Lincoln: "got the big arm, he's got the stuff. He's the type of guy who can overpower you.' - @RobBiertempfel Friday, 2/19/10: Pedro Alvarez is raking -- again -- on field 3 at #pirate city. Big bombs to cf - @RobBiertempfel Thursday, 2/18/10: Now is the time to not survive at this level, but flourish at this level. - John Russell

The "27 Man" Roster

2010-02-17T11:29:00.002-05:00

Since everyone seems to be doing it, what more perfect day than today, when pitchers and catchers begin reporting to Bradenton FL. So I’ll throw my hat into the ring, and guess what the “27 Man” roster will look like on Monday April 5, 1:35pm. The beauty of this guessing game is that Spring Training always brings about an injury or 2, so I’m hedging my bets a little. I figure one outfielder will tweak a hammy and one pitcher will have arm tightness, so 2 should open on the DL*, making this exercise a little easier.

Starting Pitchers: Maholm, Duke, Ohlendorf, Morton, Hart.

Bullpen: Dotel, Donnelly, Hanrahan, Lopez, Jakubauskas, Meek, Carrasco.

Starting 8: Clement, Iwamura, Cedeno, LaRoche, Milledge, A. McCutchen, G. Jones, Doumit.

Bench: Young, Crosby, Raynor, Church, Jaramillo.

The Other 2*: Bass and Moss will be around for 15 more days at least. If there are no DL-ers on April 5, then Bass to Indy, Moss is cut loose.

The glaring omissions are D. McCutchen and Pearce. Pearce can still be optioned to Indy. G. Jones backs up 1B, and there’s plenty of random OF depth to allow Clement a chance in the bigs. Pearce can slot in nicely with Tabata and Alvarez, which should provide some fireworks this spring at Victory Field, and perhaps enhance his trade value if Clement succeeds. D. McCutchen barely loses the 5^th rotation spot to Hart, who management really like, and he goes to Indy as a starter rather than being wasted in the bullpen.

Can you feel the optimism in the air? I can! Go Bucs!

92/G7 and 82

2010-02-14T20:05:00.002-05:00

You may have noticed (but probably not) that I was tweetin over a few days last week my viewing of the NLCS Game 7 from 1992. Having been a college junior at the time, I pretty much didn't follow sports at the time. Truthfully my only real memory of baseball at the time was listening to the Twins and Jack Morris' 10 inning performance on the radio. Then after college, the strike killed my interest until Pedro came to Boston. So I downloaded the game off iTunes. My immediate reaction after the revulsion of the incessant Tomahawk Chop and Tim McCarver subsided, was that the Pirates looked like a team of destiny, having come back from 3-1 down, much like the '79 squad. With their ace ace on the mound, they were rolling thru 8. Then of course the wheels just came off in the 9th. Obvious second guessing is that Leyland left Drabek in too long, as the last couple innings he was showing signs of being gassed. The winning hit was a "rip your heart out, toss it in a blender moment" and sadly is the last winning team in Pirates history. The only thing I'm trying to accomplish by watching such agony is to try and feel where current fans are now. It's easy for me to sit back and say this is the year for 82, as '93-'07 are completely foreign to me. It won't make me a smarter fan, but it might make me more knowledgeable and sympathetic to those who have spent their fandom lives bleeding for another championship. Maybe this is the year they get closer to that goal, and maybe it's not. But every fan has to think it's possible, else why bother? They're getting closer, I can see and feel it. The talent level is deeper, the pitching staff is turning corners, and a "team" is developing, as The Great Purge should be just about over. And 3 days before pitchers and catchers report, no one can convince me they're not capable of being average (aka 82-80) until they play it out. Go Bucs! - BlogPress from my iPhone

Bucs History

2010-02-14T14:10:00.001-05:00

Trying to cram in as much history I can before the season starts. Started with 92/G7 and am now working on the 79 series. My valentine got me the full World Series on DVD! I have a better feeling about this one ... Go Bucs! - BlogPress from my iPhone

Optimism

2010-01-31T00:16:00.002-05:00

Pass it on.

Tweet Tweet

2010-01-22T12:45:00.003-05:00

Now playing on Twitter ... @newpiratesfan Hit me up!

January Update

2010-01-20T21:04:00.004-05:00

It's been a bit of a whirlwind offseason, as Neal's been stocking the talent pool for 2010 and beyond. From where this team was when I started this endeavor in April of '08 to where it is now in January of '10 is pretty astounding. I don't have the same gut wrenching feelings as the lifelong diehards would when they see a former rookie of the year like Jason, a dirtdog like Nate, a batting champion like Freddy or a stalwart like Jack dismissed so casually in their view. So in my eyes, the purge of the last 2 years just looks like a good business model for building a team from the ground up essentially. And this offseason has been a continuation of the previous years good work. On the pitching side, gone for good are the bullpen arms of Bootcheck, Chavez, Dumatrait, Capps, and probably Jackson. Most likely not making the team out of Bradenton are Hacker, Vasquez and Karstens, but Yates might be back in the mid summer. A lot of turnover I know, but Neal is going to have a good bullpen once all these names get sorted out. Hanrahan, Meek and Veal are virtual locks. The major league contracts of Donnelly, Jakubauskas, and Lopez should make it. Then a couple of the minor league contract wildcards of Ledezma, Cotts, Bass and Carrasco will be in. A much improved bullpen for sure. If Hanrahan (or maybe Meek) can settle in at closer, look out. The rotation hinges on several achievable if's. If Maholm can pitch like '08. If Duke can earn his big raise. If Ohlendorf is for real. If Morton puts it together. If all these things happen, the Pirates are a much improved team without question. The 5 spot is just that. A spot. Every fifth day, you should expect to try and win 10-9. No big deal. Hart, McCutchen or darkhorse Carrasco will do fine in that role. Sounds promising ... The lineup is looking much stronger as well. Church replaces Moss. Iwamura replaces Young. Crosby and Cedeno fight it out for the starting job, hitting 8th. Clement gets his shot at first base, but has a short leash with Jones and Church available most every day. Assuming Milledge and McCutchen continue to mature together both at the plate and in the outfield, Jones can at least play to 80% of last year's level, Doumit can stay moderately healthy and Laroche can prove late last season wasn't a fluke, then this lineup could at least be league average. More reasons for optimism ... And then there's the pretty likely chances at seeing both Lincoln and Alvarez this summer in the bigs. I still think Tabata stays down another year, to try and try to develop more power, but he could arrive too. Maybe (probably) I'm just drinking the koolaid, but I like the direction right now. It's not unrealistic to think that this team could improve by at least 10 games in '10. If everything clicks (because the glass should always be half full in baseball), then 20. 20 in '10, contend in '11. Hmm, I like the sound of that ...

Church > Moss

2010-01-12T21:55:00.001-05:00

Happy New Year 2010 Pirate Fans

2009-12-31T11:47:00.003-05:00

It's gonna be a good year. You can feel it, right? I can. 4th place!

Merry Christmas Pirate Fans

2009-12-25T17:07:00.001-05:00

It's a great time to be a new pirate fan. There needs to be more of us. Spread the good cheer.

Awesome New Logo

2009-12-15T15:20:00.000-05:00

Winter Meetings, Indianapolis

2009-12-04T12:17:00.002-05:00

Dec 7-10. It's actually winter in Indianapolis this year, and there's rain/snow/wind coming Wednesday. It's starting to feel like Christmas, so what does the front office have for us under the tree, as all the GM's, agents, and baseball writers are converging here for the Winter Meetings? So far not a ton of news. Sues and Cruz are off the 40-man roster, so maybe they'll sign one guy, and for sure will take someone in the Rule 5 draft (probably either a SS or a RP). There have been a few notes about "useless to the Pirates" players such as Pierre and Crosby, and the usual trade rumblings around Capps, Doumit, Duke and Maholm. If Neil's to make a big splash this week, I sure hope it's one of the Reclamation 4 (Bedard, Sheets, Duchscherer or Harden), as unlikely as that is. A hitter could be in the works too: I fancied Byrd for awhile, but I've cooled as I have a feeling he's a Gary Matthews Jr - Texas flash in the pan type. His home/road splits are not very promising. That leaves (realistically) names like Ankiel, Blalock and Nady. Of those 3, Nady please. The more I think about RF, the more I like the idea of Tabata and Pedro spending most of 2010 together in Indy, hitting 3-4, learning from each other. Tabata's a patient hitter, who could wear out a pitcher getting on base, and then Pedro can take advantage of that. Should make for a much more exciting September 2010 when Tabata arrives, and June 2011 when Pedro arrives.

Free Agency and the 40-Man Roster

2009-11-20T12:10:00.003-05:00

Kind of like Black Friday, just a week earlier. The Bucs will probably wait a bit to let the big boys set the market, and then start going after the mid-tier guys in about a month or so. For the OF, Byrd, Nady and Ankiel should get some consideration. Depending on how the market develops, there might be a Bedard, Myers or Sheets available cheap come January. And there should be plenty of relievers out there as well. Truthfully, it's way to cumbersome going through that list. Although a flyer on guys like Fossum or Bradford I could see. There seems to be interest in Igarashi from Japan as well. Ultimately though, I think the front office made their "big splash" with the Iwamura trade.

Updated the Other Fans section the other day. Buccofans.com is doing a great job counting down the top 50 prospects. Good stuff.

11:59 tonight is the deadline for setting the 40-man roster. Goodbye Brian Bixler, and good luck.

The REAL Rookie of the Year

2009-11-17T12:09:00.002-05:00

Curse of the Terrible Towel

2009-10-19T20:00:00.001-04:00

What happens when you disgrace yourself by stomping an icon, when your
franchise has no credible icon of it's own ....

12/28 L 0-23
1/10 L 10-13
9/10 L 10-13
9/20 L 31-34
9/27 L 17-24
10/4 L 17-37
10/11 L 9-31
10/18 L 0-59

Sent from my iPhone

Buccos 09 Review

2009-10-13T15:27:00.001-04:00

Well it’s October, which means it’s time to wrap up what was the 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates season. The season actually started off pretty decent, as the starting staff quickly showed signs of improvement under the tutelage of Coach Kerrigan. But then predictably, their road woes started catching up, then the trading started, the team couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat, and it then finally all unraveled in the heat of the summer, culminating in the never-to-be-mentioned-again-record. But if you look up on the top of this page, you can see that our very own GM had dramatically different goals going into 2009, and really a total annihilation of the roster was the ONLY way he was going to achieve that. The likes of Papa Roche, Grabow, Freddy and Jack sure didn’t stand much of a chance to survive the year with a P on their caps. A little more surprising was the departures of Ian, Gorzo, Hinske and Nyjer. Downright shocking was cutting bait with Nate. But all these moves were justifiable, and necessary to truly rebuild the program that in the last 2 decades has only been tinkered with. I’ll let you decide if the bounties were enough; I think they were.

What’s left for 2010 and beyond is a new core, highlighted by Doumit, Cutch, GI Jones, Lastings, and Andy LaRoche. Maholm, Duke, Ollie and Morton should be mainstays in the rotation for awhile. Rookie Chavez and Hanrahan should settle in as bullpen studs. But there are obviously a lot of holes, as you would expect for a 99 loss team. And it’s now to the point where Neil’s plan is going to be put to the test. There are few if any real trading opportunities left short of those mentioned core players, which would begin a true revolt. Capps and Doumit are probably the only value guys left, but that’s selling low right now. Ultimately, this roster needs to stand pretty pat, mostly because it’s out of lack of options for now. Some like Dejan say the club needs to spend. Others say don’t spend for the sake of spending. But the 2 glaring holes I see are Right Field and the Bullpen.

I think this team really needs a right fielder stopgap, as Tabata needs at least a full season in Indianapolis, and Moss and Pearce had their chances. A guy like Nady would be perfect. He can rebuild some value for his future, and would take some of the pressure off the lineup which badly needs some confidence building. Anyone who watched August baseball knows that the club needs some bullpen arms, now. Especially an 8^th inning lefty like ex-Bucs Grabow or Beimel. The 3^rd hole is really a want, not a need, and is just to replace 4A players like Cruz and Bixler. A Cedeno/Andy DP combo could be fine for now, but we can’t go with Young at 2B much longer. Really, he’s a supersub-utility guy, not a starter. I think it all hinges on Pedro. If he blows us away in Bradenton, then he’s up June 1, and we can deal with Walker, Cedeno and Andy for the first few months. If not, then Walker learns a position like 2B in Indy, Pedro plays in Indy for the year, and Andy stays at 3B.

What really puzzles me is where newly acquired slugger Clement fits into this team. My gut tells me he’ll be tied to Capps in an offseason trade (but where and why?). Or maybe he can push Doumit behind the plate (maybe beyond to right field?) if they decide 1B isn’t a viable option (then moving GI Jones to RF) …. Whew, there sure are a lot of options, which is GOOD! The 2010 team should be better, could be an 81 win type, but could also be much worse, be a 110 loss type. It’s premature to guess, as so much depends on the Free Agent season. The front office says they have $$ to spend, and I think they need to do just that, but carefully. There are some very calculated moves that could really help this team contend in 2011. Later in the fall, I’ll dig thru the lists and see how it all fits, but for now …

The most important thing to remember from 2009 is that I got to see about 20 games in Indianapolis, the last Bucs game of the year in Cincinnati, and I finally made my haj. I got to see my first game (and Bucs win, Skyblast to boot) at venerable PNC Park, in beautiful downtown Pittsburgh, me in my Clemente jersey, my lovely wife in her Stargell. And I have my Prospects t-shirt ready for next year!

GO BUCCOS!

New Nationals Fan*

2009-09-24T20:20:00.002-04:00

Nationals 52-99 Pirates 56-95 (only 4 games back) *for the next two weeks ...

September Baseball Relevance

2009-09-19T18:03:00.007-04:00

Was 51-97 .345 ---

Pit 56-90 .384 6.0

Embrace the Suck!

2009-09-06T12:28:00.004-04:00

A little sugar to help the medicine go down:

In the Phillies 16 year losing streak between 1933-1948, they won at a .363 clip (888-1555), and lost 100 games in a season a whopping 7 times! They also finished dead last 8 times in an 8 team league. Somehow, they did manage to make the World Series in 1950, swept by the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Bucs from 1993-2008 were only losing at a .437 clip (1104-1419), hitting the century mark exactly once, in 2001. They finished last 7 times, in a 5 or 6 team division.

Viva 2011! GO BUCCOS!

Magic Number 1

2009-09-06T12:23:00.002-04:00

Magic Number 2

2009-09-05T09:01:00.004-04:00

17 years ...

2009-08-15T11:21:00.005-04:00

46-69 + 36-11 = 82-80

Bad team, bad math.

Cuck the Fubs

2009-08-14T12:28:00.003-04:00

Charlie Morton's gonna crush them today. Update: Wow, nevermind ...

BREAKING NEWS

2009-08-12T06:32:00.001-04:00

Bullpen holds lead, Bucs win.

A Whole New (Ronny) Ballgame!

2009-08-02T21:04:00.002-04:00

The Ronny Cedeno Era has begun ...

Neil finally blows the pirate ship up properly, sending Jack Wilson and Ian Snell to Seattle for 5 players, including a new shortstop referenced above, slugging prospect Jeff Clement, and 3 minor league arms. Clement's Indianapolis debut? 2 home runs. Neil also sent Freddy Sanchez to San Francisco for uber-prospect Tim Alderson. The 20 year-old instantly becomes the best pitching prospect in the organization. And then Neil finishes it off by sending John Grabow and Tom Gorzellany to the Cubbies for starter Kevin Hart, and a couple of minor leaguers. Hart will step right in to the rotation, and couldn't do much worse than Virgil Vasquez. To simplifly things (I'll let others do exaustive breakdowns) - for 3 major leaguers and 2 minor leaguers, the Buccos get 2 major leaguers, 2 top prospects, and 5 others. Most observers say the Pirates were winners at the deadline. As much as I hated seeing Freddy and Jack leave the 'Burgh, I have to say the bounty was worth it. Remember, if we can lose with the likes of McLouth, Morgan, Burnett, Hinske, LaRoche, Wilson, Snell, Sanchez, Grabow and Gorzellany (and lets not forget to mention Bautista, Paulino, Bay, Nady and Marte) - they can lose without them too, and be primed for the future, something they haven't been for a looooong time.

VIVA RONNY CEDENO! GO BUCCOS!

Time for some Home Cookin' ....

2009-07-30T21:36:00.005-04:00

Washington 32-70 (12-37 road)

Pirates 43-58 (26-19 PNC)

W 5-4 Fri: John Lannan vs Ross Ohlendorf

W 11-6 Sat: Craig Stammen vs Virgil Vasquez

L 5-3 Sun: Collin Balester vs Paul Maholm

Mon: Garrett Mock vs Charlie Morton

To say this is a critical series to "82" is an understatement. Now 15 games under the .500 mark, the PBC is virtually guaranteed of making (dubious) history. Only a big winning streak, starting now can prevent it . The odds are not with them, but who knows - the next 10 games (and 19 of the next 25 are at PNC)....

Other news: Yes, there's been some other news. No comment until August though. I'm still not convinced Neil's done yet. After all, Matt Capps is still around ... GO BUCCOS!

Buccos @ San Francisco

2009-07-26T21:14:00.008-04:00

Pirates 43-55 (17-36 road)

San Francisco 52-46 (31-15 home)

L 4-2 Mon: Paul Maholm vs Tim Lincecum

L 3-2 Tue: Charlie Morton vs Barry Zito

L 1-0 Wed: Zach Duke vs Matt Cain

BEAT 'EM BUCS!

Catching Up ...

2009-07-26T20:41:00.002-04:00

Here are a few shots from Victory Field, July 20. More can be found here.

Prospect Brad Lincoln and pitching coach Ray Searage work together on a side session.

Lincoln delivers as Searage looks on.

Not sure what Tom Gorzellany's doing, blowing on his hand?

Newly acquired Lastings Milledge with a big swing - and miss.

In Bucco news, taking 2 of 3 from Milwaukee and San Francisco? GREAT! Trading Adam LaRoche for anything, GOOD NEAR GREAT! Adam was not going to be back as a pending free agent, would never have been offered arbitration for fear of his acceptance, and probably wouldn't even garnered draft picks. Might as well move him, save his $alary and move it towards either Sano, or extending Freddy/Jack.

But laying an egg (actually two goose eggs) in Arizona hurts. This team is despicable on the road, and now face a rematch with the Giants starting Monday. Lincecum ... uh-oh ...

And is it just me, or is Wilson's injury and Sanchez' slump perfect timing? Who'd want them right now ... except the Buccos. Let's just call it a fortunate state of affairs. The DP combo needs to stay in the 'Burgh!

Obligatory Mid-Season Report Card Post

2009-07-15T20:45:00.004-04:00

Like just about everyone else, it's time for a mid-season all-star break assessment of the first half. I'm going to keep this as simple as possible, as there's a lot to go over. Suffice to say that the team itself gets a passing grade, but isn't exactly honor roll material. Let's give it a go, shall we ... (current) position by position. Pop open a Yuengling or two, this could be my longest post ever.

First Base (C-) .... Adam LaRoche, .250/12/39 He seemed to make us all think he was going to break out of his annual first-half slump, but right now he's pretty much league average. The minus is because he's not showing what it will take to get a haul at the trading deadline. If he turns it on this month, he should be gone.

Second Base (B+) .... Freddy Sanchez .316/6/34 The deserving all-star is probably the best player on the team right now. I know you're not supposed to make personnel decisions based on emotion Neal, but please keep Freddy on this team. Yes, "veteran intangibles" do exist, and his option in 2010 should be exercised.

Third Base (B-) .... Andy LaRoche .269/4/34 A touch above league average, he has certainly made us all feel more comfortable with the Bay trade. I still think he's going to be a .300 hitter someday, and watch for this "dirt dog" to go on a tear in the second half.

Shortstop (B-) .... Jack Wilson .270/4/31 Also a bit better than league average, he might actually have a legitimate shot at a gold glove this year as well. As with Freddy, this is a guy that needs to stay on the team. The trade-return isn't going to be overwhelming, and the D up-the-middle must be restored for the pitcher's sake.

LF/RF (D+) .... Brandon Moss .255/3/23, Garrett Jones .310/5/7, Delwyn Young .311/3/19 This trio of 4th outfielders are going to have to battle it out (hopefully) when Lastings Milledge comes up around August 1 to play LF. If Papa Roche gets traded, look for Jones to play 1B. He's only had 42 at bats, but he was knocking the cover off the ball in Indy, and never really got a real chance in Minnesota. At 28, he should be plenty motivated. Young has been good off the bench, but he's not an everyday player. Moss is improving, hitting over .300 since mid-May, and playing very good defense. While the potential is still there, and I'm still high on Moss, ultimately the grade is based on what major league baseball teams should be getting from corner outfielders, and right now we're not getting it.

Centerfield (A-) .... Andrew McCutchen .292/2/23 Easily the most exciting player on the team, he's looking like the Buccos centerfielder for a long long time. For a still only 22 year old, he's shown great poise and patience at the plate, is playing stellar defense, and looks very comfortable. Hopefully he'll develop a little more power, but with his gap power/speed, he's going to slug just fine.

Catcher (Incomplete) .... Ryan Doumit .224/2/10 Glass Joe has only had 58 at bats, so it's way too early to grade (see G. Jones). One thing aside from his fragility that worries me though is his defense. He's another candidate to play first base on August 1. Thankfully Diaz and Jaramillo stepped in admirably this year, which naturally leads to ....

The Bench (D+) .... When Hinske/Morgan/McLouth were on this team, the bench looked a lot better. Now that those role guys are getting serious playing time, uh-oh. Jason Jaramillo (.255/3/19), Luis Cruz (.333/0/0), Ramon Vazquez (.243/1/10), and Jeff Salazar (.000/0/0) round out the bench. Uh-oh indeed! The plus is for Jaramillo, who's been decent.

#1 Starter (B-) .... Paul Maholm 6-4, 4.60, 1.47 Paul was our ace by default at the beginning of the year, and were the Buccos to play in the postseason (stop laughing) he would be the Game 1 starter. For the most part he's been solid, but has gotten shelled a couple times of late which is worrisome, but there are a lot of home games on the schedule the 2nd half.

#2 Starter (A-) .... Zach Duke 8-8, 3.29, 1.21 Some may rightly argue he's the ace, but that's just semantics. But he has been the best pitcher on a surprisingly good staff. Thank you Joe Kerrigan. The all-star has been the subject of trade rumors of late, but why on earth would we get rid of him? Sure, the front office has been in a sell-high frame of mind, but absolutely could Zach be a part of the next winning team. He's only 26!

#3 Starter (C+) .... Ross Ohlendorf 7-7, 4.64, 1.29 Professor Ollie has been quite simply, average. His velocity is down which is a worry, but in Kerrigan I trust. He's a smart pitcher, and should end the year with 12 wins, but also probably with 11 losses.

#4 Starter (Incomplete) .... Charlie Morton 1-2, 4.29, 1.48 Along with Doumit and Jones, Morton is going to be one to watch in the second half. He has absolutely filthy electric stuff, and just needs to put it all together. I cannot emphasize enough how important Kerrigan's influence can be. With a leg injury past him, he should settle in every 5 days, and then we'll know more.

#5 Starter (D-) .... Virgil Vasquez 1-3, 6.52, 1.71 I don't understand why John Russell keeps sending this guy out. I suppose I shouldn't expect too much from a last place team's 5th starter, but Karstens should absolutely positively got to be there overnight in the 5 hole.

Closer (B-) .... Matt Capps 1-5, 6.21, 1.69, 19 of 21 save chances. After the Philly meltdown, I really want to give Firestarter a lower grade, but with only 2 blown saves, I can't. He's allowing way to many runners, and his straight as an arrow fastball is fooling nobody, but when you have a good defense, sometimes you get lucky. I would sell him right now, opting for the rumored trade with Colorado for 2B Young + Prospect, please!

Set Up Man (B) .... John Grabow (3-0, 3.32, 1.52) Will be traded most likely, as teams come calling for lefty setup men come July. It's gonna hurt a lot if Donnie Veal's the only lefty in the pen.

Rest of the Bullpen (C-) .... I like Jesse Chavez (0-3, 3.19, 1.28) and Evan Meek (0-0, 2.67, 1.34); Jeff Karstens (3-4, 4.62, 1.38) has been pretty decent in the long man role, but should be starting instead of Vasquez. But the grade falls because of Joel Hanrahan (1-3, 7.75, 1.97) and Donnie Veal (0-0, 3.68, 2.18) - neither of which should be on the team right now. Please tell me that once Capps is traded, Chris Bootcheck (AAA: 1-2, 2.83, 1.08, 48K's, 7BB's, 14 saves) is on his way up!

Looking Ahead at "82" .... You can pretty much kiss that pipe dream goodbye. The team will have to go 44-30, which is a profoundly absurd .595 clip to hit that mark. For a little perspective - only the Red Sox and Dodgers are playing that well so far this year. But the one thing in the Bucco's favor is that they play 42 home games vs only 32 road games the rest of the way, and are playing .564 at PNC, and .326 (!) on the road. Numerology tells us to expect 71-91.

GO BUCCOS!

Pathetic

2009-07-11T22:23:00.001-04:00

If NH can get anything for Capps, then trade that bum out. Death, taxes, and a blown save in Philly. You just KNEW Howard would tie it up. Just awful.

Mike Hampton is a God

2009-07-07T12:59:00.005-04:00

2009 vs Buccos: (4-0, 27 innings, 15 hits, 5 BB, 19 K's, ERA 0.99, WHIP 0.74) 2009 vs rest of mlb: (1-5, 53 innings, 62 hits, 26 BB, 33 K's, ERA 5.77, WHIP 1.66)

Front Office Work, Etc

2009-07-04T12:00:00.002-04:00

The FO is at it again, restocking a depleted system, selling high on the right guys at the right time, even if it makes Jack Wilson cry a little:

Inexplicably, for Eric Hinske and 400k they got two minor leaguers from the Yankees, who could have had him on waivers for 800k. Buccos win!
For Sean Burnett and Nyjer Morgan (future Nationals' cornerstones!!), they got a hard throwing reliever in Joel Hanrahan and 5-tool project Lastings Milledge, once untouchable in the Mets organization, still only 24. Buccos win!
The moves also mean that Garrett Jones gets a shot (and has impressed with a double, triple and home run performance against the Mets) and Jeff Salazar gets a cup of coffee as well

Charlie Morton looked awesome last night, making the McLouth trade look better and better ... Ryan Doumit is rehabbing, should be back sooner after the all-star break ... The Buccos signed 3 players from Taiwan, but the real prize in Miguel Angel Sano, called "Albert Pujols in Hanley Ramirez' body" and the Buccos seems to be high on his list. Make it happen boys ....

Today's July 4 (Happy Birthday USA), which means fireworks at the Vic tonight, weather permitting. Ian Snell takes the mound, and gee I sure hope that electric Indianapolis crowd doesn't cheer or say too much, just site on their hands and pays attention and supports him regardless of results (17k's or 9-20 record). Don't worry Ian, we're really only there for the fireworks. I promise not too boo ....

Cutch-22, Catch-22, Etc

2009-06-26T09:45:00.005-04:00

(Photo: Gene J. Puskar/AP)

Cutch-22: Andrew's garnering all sorts of praise for his play of late. And it's well deserved, as he's looking like the real deal, making us all forget about our 2008 All-Star Pirate. Last night's effort was particularly inspiring (just wished I watched the game, but instead went and saw UP, which is well worth it). A stellar at-bat drawing a base loaded walk vs 2008 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, and the game-winning hit for the Buccos in the 9th, first of the year.

Catch-22: In his last 15 games, current Bucco 1B Papa Roche is hitting .366, slugging .707, OPSing 1.145 and playing stellar defense. With 4 HR in 10 games, including an Allegany Splash, he's heating up with the weather, and playing himself right out of town.

Etc: Ian Snell is coming to Indy, because of "too much negativity!" Well, what did you expect, when after signing a 3-yr extension for $8.6M in March of 2008, and since then all you've shown for it is a 9-20 record, ERA of 5.40, WHIP of 1.72, and lots of excuses ... Virgil Vasquez replaces Snell in the rotation, his second shot in the majors. His first stint was pretty uninspiring for Detroit in '07, but he's pitched well in Indy and couldn't be much worse than Ian ... Brad Lincoln looked really good in his Indy debut, and could be due for a September callup perhaps. Hope to see him live Monday night ... and Pedro Alvarez hit his 2nd homer since being called up to Altoona.

GO BUCCOS!

More Moves and Such

2009-06-21T17:38:00.002-04:00

Couple moves catching my eye. First, Brad Lincoln has been called up to Indianapolis. I am looking forward to seeing this guy who despite a 1-5 record is supposedly looking great. And the anti-hustler Craig Monroe has been designated for assignment, and the suddenly resurgent 4A Steven Pearce is up to the 'Burgh again. Having seen Pearce in Indy the last year and a half, I have to say I'm not terribly impressed. He seems to have compiled some good total stats, but I never got the impression he was an impact player like A-Cutch (ugh, or yes, even Bixler for that matter when he's not striking out). Plus, technically Steven doesn't really have a position to play, as Moss/Morgan/Young/Hinske seem to have the LF/RF covered, and Adam LaRoche is still our first baseman, right? Well not today vs Colorado ... of course everyone is thinking that a trade might be imminent. Well, as I type this, Adam's pinch-hittin' for Pearce .... h'mmmm, broken bat groundout. Yawn, about as exciting as watching FOX's coverage of Silverstone this afternoon. But I digress .... With the Buccos securing last place this weekend, the thoughts of a future fire sale come up again. While I do appreciate the new FO's approach so far, I sure hope Freddy/Jack stay. There is nobody in the system that can step in right now, as we've seen Brian already, and Shelby Ford is looking like he should be back in Altoona. Luis Cruz? Ugh. Plus the loss of their defense could have a disastrous effect on an overachieving pitching staff which is slowly coming back down to earth (ERA 16/30, WHIP 22/30). But back to PapaRoche. If the Giants offered a struggling Jonathan Sanchez and a minor leaguer , we'd be crazy not to bite, right? Aside from Adam, the only other Pirate I can see going is Nyjer, and that going to take a blind and desperate GM (say, Kenny Williams) ... perchance to dream.

It sure will be nice to get home. This Twins/Rockies beatdown has been pretty deflating of late.

Culture of Winning

2009-06-15T11:43:00.001-04:00

Buccos learn from the best, take 2 of 3 from (the other) Detroit.

Is Very Bad to Steal Jobu's Rum

2009-06-06T09:15:00.004-04:00

Apparently a few players are having a tough time adapting to the loss of All-World Nate McLouth who apparently was going to play Moses later this summer. Quoteth:

On Thursday, at the clubhouse table where McLouth used to play cards with relievers Sean Burnett and Jesse Chavez, a candle bearing McLouth's uniform No. 13 was lit, along with a photo of him in uniform, the Post-Gazette reported. "We'll miss him," Burnett said. Other players were angrier. "There ain't a guy in here who ain't [ticked] off about it," said first baseman Adam LaRoche, according to the report. "It's kind of like being with your platoon in a battle, and guys keep dropping around you. You keep hanging on, hanging on, and you've got to figure: How much longer till you sink?

Ironically, Pedro Cerrano also wore number thirteen .... spooky .... Hey folks, let's get a grip, mmmkay? A career .260/.338/.460 hitter, Nate McLouth has had 2 fantastic months in Pittsburgh, and been average pretty much the rest of his time. He represented the Buccos in last year's All-Star game, but probably wouldn't have this year (my money on the lone Pirate is on Freddy Sanchez). And while it feels like the front office is giving up on this year, are they really? They got a pitcher in Morton who could hopefully step in for a dreadful Ian Snell, a guy in Hernandez who could replace Nyjer if the FO can convince someone to take him at the deadline, and some 3rd guy in A ball with "good peripherals". Oh yeah, and Andrew McCutchen gets to play ball. I've been saying all year that once Nyjer fails, A-Cutch would be up, but not too early to start the super two/free agent clock crap. So what happened instead was Nyjer hasn't failed, and they sold high on Nate, to a desperate Braves GM, knowing he was the only guy in their outfield who would fetch a bounty worth making the trade. Plus, he's a red wings fan .... that's almost reason enough.

Now let's just concentrate for a bit on not letting the Astros catch us, mmmkay?

Nate Who?

2009-06-04T22:03:00.003-04:00

Quite a debut. Keep it up Andrew!

(photo John Heller/AP)

Exit Nate, Enter Andrew

2009-06-03T22:23:00.001-04:00

Wow. Crap, Nate's a Brave. Cutch sure has some big all-star gold-glove shoes to fill. My initial reaction is of course "this sucks eventually you have to try and win with what you have instead of this trade for the future bullshit," but my sober thoughts are "good haul for a bit of an overrated outfielder." I'll miss Andrew in Indy, but may have Gorky to look forward to? Go buccos. Too bad 82's pretty much out of the question unless Andrew's the NL ROY.

Finding Hope in Chicago

2009-05-25T17:26:00.003-04:00

Photo: Charles Cherney/Associated Press

2009-05-23T17:53:00.006-04:00

Trust in Ollie.

With what looks like Texas beating Houston, a win tonight would put a game behind us up from the cellar. With 5 more days to spend in the Windy City, the Buccos need to get a win tonight, and to do that will need more than two lousy singles. The Cubbies are reeling right now, and with some momentum, the Buccos could do some damage early next week. But first they have to get this interleague monkey off their back, and lefty Clayton Richard is coming off a pretty solid start his last time out in Canada. Uh-oh. GO BUCCOS!

8 Days until my Haj (virgin visit to the best ballpark in America): Looking ahead a week, the matchup could be an elite matchup of #5 starters, Jeff Karstens vs Felipe Paulino next Saturday night vs Houston ... should be more than just these fireworks!