tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38593342390881631002024-02-07T08:26:21.331-05:00newpiratesfanJust as it was in 1960, its been 33 years since the last Bucs pennant ... BEAT 'EM, BUCS!Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.comBlogger208125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-89619257692825769922012-10-05T08:33:00.001-04:002012-10-05T08:33:53.353-04:00Last Post<div style="text-align: justify;">
Dear Pirates Nation,<br />
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I've been thinking of closing up shop here at newpiratesfan for some time now, and after reading <a href="http://www.whygavs.com/pittsburgh-pirates/august-2012/20.html" target="_blank">this post from Pat</a>, I knew it was my time. The few readers I have probably know that's I've been losing the "blogger mojo" for some time now (if I ever really had it). In January, I began a new career as a stay at home father, and am finding less and less time to write about baseball as I'm discovering I need more and more time to do more productive things. Rest assured, this has nothing to do with the Pirates collapse this season. I had always planned on making Win #82 and the subsequent breaking of the streak my final post. The thinking was this "newpiratesfan" is done, and now just a Pirates Fan. That still holds true, despite the record. In fact, it's actually probably more appropriate now with the streak continuing. After two late summer collapses, I've started to feel what it must really feel like to be a Pirates Fan, eerily reminiscent of my Red Sox fandom days. (As an aside, I keep thinking that the Bucs collapse this year feels a whole lot like the Red Sox in 2003, when Aaron Bleeping Boone crushed our spirits by crushing a Tim Wakefield knuckleball. 2013 will be the year that The Pirates overcome, with our own Dave Roberts Moment). I have now been a fan for 25% of the streak. It's amazing to think that I've been doing this haphazardly for 5 seasons now, long enough to drop the "new" qualifier, and the blog with it. The ultimate goal of this blog way back in 2008 was to recapture my love for the game. Mission accomplished!</div>
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I'm not giving up on the Bucs, and neither should you! </div>
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Those of you still interested in following me in other endeavors, I have been trying to chronicle my new career at <a href="http://stayathomepa.wordpress.com/">http://stayathomepa.wordpress.com/</a> but again, blogging just isn't my cup of tea. The more appropriate web venue for me right now is my tumblr, <a href="http://tf-oto.tumblr.com/">http://tf-oto.tumblr.com/</a> where I'm going to try and post photography, sport and parenting. You can also find me tweeting <a href="https://twitter.com/tonyframpton" target="_blank">@tonyframpton</a>, but I don't always follow back as perhaps I should. But I do have a <a href="https://twitter.com/i/#!/tonyframpton/pirate-nation" target="_blank">Pirates Nation List</a> that I check quite often.</div>
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It's been a great ride Pirates Nation, and a heartfelt thanks to those who supported me.</div>
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-Tony </div>
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<b><span style="font-size: x-large;">BEAT EM, BUCS!!!</span></b></div>
Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-73256630348921043342012-09-13T12:33:00.000-04:002012-09-13T12:34:24.755-04:00Total Freefall<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Needless to say, the Pirates are now, and have been for the last six weeks in total free fall. Four times this summer, the ball club was <u style="font-weight: bold;">16 games over .500</u>. <b> </b>July 28, August 1, August 6, and August 8. 63-47 is the final high point, and since then they have:</div>
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<li>been swept four times (Padres, Brewers, Cubs and Reds)</li>
<li>have gone 9-23 (.281 winning percentage)</li>
<li>have hit for a line of .237/.310/.365</li>
<li>watched their ex-MVP candidate hit .242/.333/.347 with only 2 steals
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<li>went from 2.5GB of the Reds in the NL Central to 14GB</li>
<li>saw a 3.5 game lead for the 2nd wild card diminish to 2.5GB</li>
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What's even more astounding is that last fact. They are technically still in the playoff race. In the same time period, St. Louis has only gone 15-17, and the Los Angeles Dodgers have only managed 14-17. The club is now 72-70, <b><u>only 2 games over .500</u></b>, and they still have hope of backing into the playoffs because nobody else wants the wild card (except perhaps the 22-10 Phillies or the 21-12 Brewers). </div>
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I really don't believe they'll make the playoffs, as there are now too many teams in the mix, two of them playing great baseball, and two others that have much stronger squads. Unless Neil Walker comes back tomorrow and hits .500 the rest of the way, they just don't have enough firepower. We have 11 games against bad teams (Astros, Cubs and Mets) and 9 games against good teams (Brewers, Reds and Braves). Sadly, I'm becoming less and less sure they're going to finish 82-80. Back in March, I wrote:</div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;"><i>Yes, this is the year the Pirates reach 82. Actually 83-79. They'll struggle a bit in April, then turn the jets on in May, June and July. August will again be a struggle, but then it will come down to the last week of the season. #81 comes at the Mets on September 27, then we'll all freak out as the Reds come into Pittsburgh, sweep the Bucs, and clinch the NL Central crown. Just as we're all ready to jump off the Clemente Bridge, wins #82 and #83 come on October 1 and October 3 against the Braves. Full preview on Opening Day.</i><i>WINS 83 MVP Andrew McCutchen CY James McDonald</i></span></span></blockquote>
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There actually seems to be about a 50/50 chance this happens, which a month ago would have sounded pathetically sad. But in March, and in September seems wildly optimistic. I sure hope it does, because the backlash at this collapse has been tough enough to handle. Imagine if this becomes Season #20?</div>
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Beat Em, Bucs! At least 10 more times this year.</div>
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Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-55154328381538068552012-08-15T11:57:00.000-04:002012-08-15T11:57:06.988-04:00Pirates Panic ButtonA popular topic after the Dodgers whipped the Bucs last night, one that literally drove me off twitter, is how to fix the team. The team that is in the wild card race on August 15th. The team that is 12 games over .500, and would only need to go 18-28 (.391, the Cubs level of play this year) the rest of the way to have a winning season for the first time in two decades. The team that pretty much nobody expected to be even close to relevant this late in the season. The team that has the 6th best record in MLB (better than perennial favorites Tampa, Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Francisco, and both Los Angeles teams). The team that has a legitimate MVP candidate on the roster, and has a Top 10 pitching staff by most metrics. The team that, if the season ended today, would travel to Atlanta for a one game showdown to face the Washington Nationals in the Division Series of the PLAYOFFS.<br />
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Well, the team has struggled this month, going 5-8. We still have 2 games left against the Dodgers, and 6 against the Cardinals, both teams chasing us for the wild card. Is it time to panic? Yes and no. Obviously if the Bucs continue to play .384 ball, we'll be in trouble when September rolls around. But the stretch run also features 19 games against the Brewers, Cubs and Astros, 4 against the Mets, and 9 games against the Reds and Braves, the teams we're chasing. So while the next couple of weeks will be nail biting, the team is in complete control of their destiny. Beat up on the teams we should beat, and then any extra wins against the Reds and Braves are gravy. Losses against them don't hurt so bad because of the extra wild card this year.</div>
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In September, we can expect the best possible relievers and hitters to come from Indianapolis to bolster the bullpen and bench for the race. Looking at the <a href="http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=pit" target="_blank">40 man roster</a>, at least 4 pitchers (Hughes, McCutchen, Morris, Wilson), 1 catcher (Fryer), and 5 bench guys (Clement, Hague, Navarro, Presley and Tabata) could be added. That's 10 guys who could bolster the team in 2 weeks. That will drastically improve the bullpen, as well as Hurdle's pinch hitting options.</div>
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But I'm not so sure we can wait that long. I would swap Harrison for Navarro, and dump Qualls and call up Morris, and have them meet us in St. Louis on Friday. They're only marginal improvements, but that should be enough to tread water. Also, ditch this 6 man rotation idea. Starting tonight, it's Rodriguez and Burnett to finish off the Dodgers series, followed by McDonald, Bedard and Karstens in St. Louis. Hopefully, Correia made his last start last night, and I'd use Locke as the long guy, or to give a spot start for McDonald in San Diego should he struggle again. </div>
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There's no need to panic yet, just get through this rough patch (all teams have them, even playoff teams), and load up for what could be a hell of a run in September.</div>
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Beat Em, Bucs! </div>
Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-51630298633948239902012-07-27T06:42:00.000-04:002012-08-01T07:16:00.784-04:00August Update<div>In my almost regular tradition now of posting once a month, your August 1-ish update that nobody needs to read because if you're reading this to catch up on the Pirates, you're certainly not <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23BUCN" target="_blank">#BUCN</a></div><div><br />
</div><div><b>Trade Deadline/Roster Recap/Grades:</b> Now that the deadline has passed ....<br />
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Chad Qualls: trading Casey McGehee was probably necessary to open a spot for Sanchez. Qualls won't replace Lincoln, but I guess it's better than nothing. Grade D<br />
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Gaby Sanchez: meh. Losing Gorkys and a draft pick isn't much, but not sure Gaby is either. But is he an upgrade, marginal for sure. Grade B<br />
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Travis Snider: Well, eventually ONE of these "top prospects" has to pan out, right? Even though his inflated AAA stats were from the hitters-haven Las Vegas, if the price was our #7 starter, who is doing well in the bullpen for a young controllable OF, then kudos Neal. Grade A <br />
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<u>Wandy Rodriguez:</u> Good pick up for the stretch (and for 2013), which takes Kevin Correia out of the rotation. Adding Cain to Owens and Grossman probably was an overpay, but Houston was willing to pick up cash to increase the haul. I would have hoped to pay a bit more and keep Cain, but oh well. The Bucs are making a splash without mortgaging the future, so yay. Grade B<br />
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<u>Starling Marte</u>: Hopefully throwing the 23 year old into a pennant race doesn't stunt his growth. The Pirates certainly have a need for the future star, but supposedly promotions are based on merit, not need. While he's had a good season, let's temper our enthusiasm, and remember he's only had 388 at bats in AAA (286/347/500). In comparison to the player we all most hope he can morph into, Andrew McCutchen had 780 AAA at bats (291/367/424) as a 22 year old. Marte's stat line is comparable at a younger age, but he's had less upper level experience. The future looks bright, and by the time this post hits, we will have seen his debut in Houston which was FREAKING AWESOME!! Should I make a "ready for takeoff" joke? Grade C </div><div><br />
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</div><div>Last month I predicted 15-10, 57-46, and first place. They actually finished 17-9 (why can't I count right?), 59-44 and 3 games back of the blistering hot Vottoless Reds </div><div><br />
</div><div><b>Looking Ahead: 17-10, 76-54, and a commanding wild card lead ....</b></div><div>1 @ Chicago (NL) W</div><div>3 @ Cincinnati L W L</div><div>4 vs Diamondbacks W W L W</div><div>3 vs Padres W L W</div><div>4 vs Dodgers L W W</div><div>3 @ St. Louis W L L</div><div>3 @ San Diego W W W</div><div>3 vs Brewers W L W</div><div>3 vs Cardinals W W L</div><div>1 @ Milwaukee L</div><div><br />
</div><div>Believe! Beat Em, Bucs! Raise the Jolly Roger 17 more times in August!</div>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-84775041617593694762012-07-13T14:32:00.001-04:002012-07-13T17:48:38.008-04:00Mark Appel Day<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik4enu1hqDj1vfCBEEjQA9pQJwqkO2G9VR9C6sErXshvDt8YVHCJcNQRx9IMTZCRMcrxmAjRLU_oq55xE-08BsBlTkYmKTzaC0E1kRm52HP_lBYKnCo7rrI5in4WDzfVIUoLVfdiHHM-8/s1600/bal-mark-appel-20120531.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik4enu1hqDj1vfCBEEjQA9pQJwqkO2G9VR9C6sErXshvDt8YVHCJcNQRx9IMTZCRMcrxmAjRLU_oq55xE-08BsBlTkYmKTzaC0E1kRm52HP_lBYKnCo7rrI5in4WDzfVIUoLVfdiHHM-8/s320/bal-mark-appel-20120531.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Original Photo: Jake Roth US PRESSWIRE</td></tr>
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At 2:30 on Friday the 13th, my position is I would like him to sign, but only because it means we can deal Jameson Taillon for a guy like Josh Willingham, who is under contract through 2014. Having a little stability in LF and some power to slot between Cutch and Pedro, while Starling Marte, Alex Presley and Jose Tabata fight it out for RF and 4th OF sounds pretty awesome right now.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">UPDATE 5:30pm: Screw you Mark. We'll win without you.</span></b></h4>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-51522715700030859882012-07-02T21:31:00.001-04:002012-07-02T21:36:01.192-04:00July Update<div style="text-align: justify;">
While my mojo for blogging about baseball has hit yet another valley, my love for this team has done anything but. While I'm spending less time typing into blogger, I'm spending more time on mlb.tv, and starting to believe that this team might just be for real.</div>
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There's a whole lot of good to report. Cutch is a legitimate MVP candidate, JMac is slowly turning into an ace. The AJ Experiment is going very well. Pedro is heating up again. The rest of the Pirates are actually starting to hit the ball, and with good pitching, the Bucs are starting to look like a balanced club. A potential game changing X-Factor, rumors of Starling Marte's ascension could mean a struggling Tabata might be sent to Indianapolis. Jose is terribly wrong right now, and this team could use him straightened out by a September pennant race.</div>
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You have to wonder what GM Neal is thinking right now. The conventional wisdom early in the year was to trade from the MLB pitching surplus for some positional help. Could he even be entertaining <a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Zack-Greinke-Milwaukee-Brewers-Cole-Hamels-Philadelphia-Phillies-trade-talks-070212" target="_blank">Ken Rosenthal's notion</a> of going all in for guys like Hamels or Greinke? I think that would be terribly short sighted, as any trade tools found in Indianapolis NOT named Marte, Morris or Sanchez should be fair game for flipping for a legit OF corner. Here are the three guys I'd like to choose from: If the Rockies go into sell mode, Michael Cuddyer. The Twins are probably looking to move Josh Willingham. And if the Phillies really have a fire sale, I want nothing to do with Hunter Pence, and everything to do with Shane Victorino.<br />
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Last month I picked the Bucs to go 14-13, ending at 39-38. They actually went 17-10 to end at 42-35! Whooohooo, I love being wrong! July looks very promising, and I'm feeling very optimistic:</div>
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1 @ STL (loss, posted too late to pick)</div>
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4 vs HOU (3 wins, 1 loss)</div>
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3 vs SF (2 wins, 1 loss)</div>
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3 @ MIL (1 win, 2 losses)</div>
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3 @ COL (2 wins, 1 loss)</div>
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3 vs MIA (1 win, 2 losses)</div>
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3 vs CHC (3 wins, 0 losses)</div>
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4 @ HOU (2 wins, 2 losses)</div>
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2 @ CHC (1 win, 1 loss)</div>
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Total month pick 15-10, ending record 57-46, and in first place!</div>
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Beat Em, Bucs!</div>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-75056909910853041082012-06-01T06:00:00.000-04:002012-06-01T06:00:09.041-04:00Rabbit! Rabbit! for JuneAs is customary on the first of the month, for luck ... RABBIT! RABBIT!<br />
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</div><div>Last month I predicted a 15-14 May, for a month end 25-26.<br />
Actual Retail Price? 15-13, month end 25-25<br />
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So I was pretty much right on, except for counting the days wrong. Was there a rainout I missed?<br />
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</div><div><u>Hitting</u></div><div>Oh. My. God. Just awful. But it is slowly coming around, and perhaps some 4A guys like Mercer and Hague can light a fire. Look for Pedro to have a big month, which I'm guessing is what he will always be hot/cold/hot.</div><div><br />
</div><div><u>Pitching</u></div><div>At least one thing is consistent this year. Hanrahan and Cruz are on the block everyone. Who has a 1B, SS, LF or C to spare?</div><div><br />
</div><div><u>Intangibles</u></div><div>All May, most of Pirates Nation has bemoaning Neal Huntington's record. With the cupboards bare of hitting prospects, who can blame them? Until the front office makes a more significant move that dumping Nate McLouth, this team is destined for a ceiling of .500, which wouldn't be all that bad anyhow.</div><div><br />
</div><div><u>Looking ahead to June</u></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">The most exciting game of the year is coming up this month, the game I GET TO SEE! June 7, at Cincinnati. Since my newpiratesfandom began in 2008, I've seen the Bucs 4 times, for a record of 3-1. Sadly I missed a game in 2011, but will not go two years running without yelling BEAT EM BUCS!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2010/index.jsp?gid=2008_09_03_pitmlb_cinmlb_1&mode=wrap" target="_blank">September 3, 2008</a>, Ross Ohlendorf's Pirate debut! W 6-5 (at Cincinnati)</div><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2010/index.jsp?gid=2009_05_30_houmlb_pitmlb_1&mode=wrap" target="_blank">May 30, 2009</a>, First PNC Game! Skyblast! Zac Brown Band! Big Bull Rider! W 7-4 (vs Astros)</div><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2010/index.jsp?gid=2009_10_04_pitmlb_cinmlb_1&mode=wrap" target="_blank">October 4, 2009</a>, Loss #99, last game of the season L 0-6 (at Cincinnati)</div><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2010/index.jsp?gid=2010_05_31_chnmlb_pitmlb_1&mode=wrap" target="_blank">May 31, 2010</a>, Memorial Day Hat Giveaway, and <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/4668080880/in/set-72157624199304090" target="_blank">I'm on TV</a>, barely ... W 2-1 (vs Cubs) </div><div style="text-align: left;"><i>June 7, 2012, Dramatic Jay Bruce 9th inning 3 run home run, not enough. Bucs win 5-4.</i> </div><br />
The Bucs have a lot of interleaguin' to do, which historically is a bad sign. Hopefully this month they can reverse that trend, since starting next year, it's here to stay all season long ...<br />
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3 @ Milwaukee Brewers (prediction of 2 wins and 1 loss)<br />
3 @ Cincinnati Reds (2/1)<br />
3 vs Kansas City Royals (2/1)<br />
3 @ Baltimore Orioles (0-3)<br />
3 @ Cleveland Indians (1/2)<br />
3 vs Minnesota Twins (2/1)<br />
3 vs Detroit Tigers (2/1)<br />
4 @ Philadelphia Phillies (2/2)<br />
2 @ St. Louis Cardinals (1/1)<br />
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Not a bad month, 14-13 for a month-end 39-38, fueling more "contender talk" ... </div><br />
Beat Em, Bucs!<br />Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-72134529228039319662012-05-21T10:07:00.000-04:002012-05-21T10:08:32.747-04:00Wanted: Hitting for Pitching<div style="text-align: justify;">
It's no secret that the Pirates have been horrible at the plate this year. How horrible? Here are the stats through Sunday, and the corresponding MLB ranks:</div>
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Batting Average .217 (29/30)</div>
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On Base Percentage .269 (30/30)</div>
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Slugging .346 (27/30)</div>
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Runs 118 (30/30)</div>
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Hits 287 (30/30)</div>
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Walks 88 (30/30)</div>
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Pretty much everywhere you look, the team just can't find success at the plate. They're not hitting, not getting on base, not hitting for power, and not scoring runs. I'm sure they'll be some that quote babip and war and iso and all those advanced statistics, but really all you need to see is above (and of course the actual games). Up and down the roster, the Bucs are underachieving. Jose Tabata is capable of being a quality lead off hitter but is struggling, Pedro Alvarez is menacingly inconsistent, Alex Presley was demoted, Garrett Jones and Neil Walker are having unspectacularly mediocre seasons which is about what is expected, Casey McGehee, Michael McKenry, Yamaico Navarro and Nate McLouth have been dreadful as role players off the bench, and Clint Barmes' OBP is only .002 higher than pitcher James McDonald's (who is hitting 2 for 15 this year). Rod Barajas had a horrible start, but is now showing what he might be, which is a poor hitting catcher with a little pop. Josh Harrison has been the only decent bench option with a 260/302/420 line. Thankfully there is at least one hitter having a great year. Andrew McCutchen is still seeing pitches, which is astounding considering this lineup, and is hitting 336/395/550. At least he'll be a genuinely deserving Pirate All-Star this season. While not a huge proponent of the fancy advanced stats, his unsustainable .374 babip means a correction should be coming. Uh-oh. Then what?</div>
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Well, thankfully the pitching is keeping us in games, just like last year. However, as you'll recall the 2011 Pirates dropped well out of contention (and first place, haha) when the pitching correction occured. Well, as you ponder the stats below, remember that Erik Bedard has already experienced back spasms, Kevin Correia has most likely already had his good starts for the year, and the "Electric Stuff" of AJ Burnett and Charlie Morton has actually been anything but electric. But so far, the staff has limited runs and hits, and the bullpen has kept the leads.</div>
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Earned Run Average 3.36 (5/30)</div>
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WHIP 1.27 (11/30)</div>
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Batting Average Against .244 (11/30)</div>
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Holds 28 (2/30)</div>
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Saves 12 (tied for 7/30)</div>
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And how about this stat? The average Pirates game score is 2.8-3.6 ... which means less concession sales because the games are shorter, which means less revenue, which means less payroll, which means (ah, nevermind I'm getting carried away there).</div>
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In April, after 6 games and half of Pirate Nation already on the ledge I said, <a href="http://www.newpiratesfan.blogspot.com/2012/04/relax-hits-will-come.html" target="_blank">relax the hits will come</a>. Well, they really haven't now after 41 games, and the season at the quarter pole. Usually when a team "blows up for the future" it's after some success. Neal Huntington blew up the roster once already when coming aboard, with little success before/after. Now we're mired with arguably the worst hitting team in the bigs (with no hitting prospects doing well this year in Indianapolis or Altoona), and an unsustainable pitching staff again using smoke and mirrors to keep us only 3.0 games out of the division lead (giving false hope to legions of faithful fans). So as the next month or so bring us ever closer to the trade deadline, here are the chips Neal needs to push all in to rebuild a balanced club (in preferred order):</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
1. Erik Bedard: Should be traded as soon as humanly possible before back spasms or arm trouble shut him down. Real contenders like the Yankees, Tigers and Red Sox have struggled to pitch well, and have way to much money invested not to trade prospects for a chance to win this year. Internal replacement: Rudy Owens (2.50 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 38K vs 5BB in 8 starts in Indianapolis).</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
2. Joel Hanrahan: Closers are highly overrated, and Joel should be able to net a bounty in July to the desperate contenders with broken down bullpens. It occurs every year, and in 2012 the Bucs need to strike. If Octavio Dotel can bring us James McDonald, then imagine what Hanrahan can net us. Internal replacement: Jason Grilli</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
3. Juan Cruz: Another hot commodity in July is the 8th inning relief pitcher who bridges the gap to the closer. Cruz has been phenomenal this year, and is a luxury for a team like the Pirates. Neal has shown (if nothing else) that he can rebuild bullpens year in and year out, so no big loss, but high reward. Internal replacement: Bryan Morris (3.33 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 23K vs 5BB in 24.1 Indianapolis innings)</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
4. A.J. Burnett: Assuming A.J. is able to turn back on the electric stuff this summer, then he should be moved at the deadline, but only if the Pirates pick up the majority of his contract to increase the haul. As the club stands now, they need to pay for prospects, because they're being spurned by free agents and have nothing in the pipeline except more pitching. Internal replacement: Brad Lincoln or Kevin Correia (once Jeff Karstens knocks him out of the rotation).</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Yes that's a lot of pitching to trade away, but this team isn't contending in 2012, and it's quite possible that as early as next fall, we'll be seeing the debuts of aces Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole to go along with James McDonald and Charlie Morton. Wouldn't it be nice to have some hitting to match that pitching? Isn't that really the only way to win? The only positions that are set in my mind are McCutchen in center, Tabata in right, Walker at second and Pedro at third. So now Neal needs to start filling the holes in left, first and short with blue chip hitting prospects in order to save his job. He has some chips to play with, he just needs to find a game.</div>
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Beat Em, Bucs!</div>
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<br />
<br />Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-78067515020353871262012-05-15T09:32:00.002-04:002012-05-15T09:33:06.459-04:00Baseball Reference's Similarity Scores for the 2012 Bucs<div style="text-align: justify;">
Apparently I think much more highly of the Pirates batters than I should. But maybe it's because I see the potential in them, not the reality. For fun (really, fun?) I decided to punch in the starting eight to <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball-Reference</a>, to find the "most similar by ages" ... </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
1. RF <u>Jose Nicolas Tabata</u>. For a couple of years, I actually sponsored his page because from the get-go of my newpiratesfan-dom, he has been my favorite player. I see a potential .300 hitter, with some gap power, speed and D. Instead, we get <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gettmja01.shtml" target="_blank">Jake Gettman</a>, who played one full season for the 1898 Washington Senators. I like the comps to Bill Buckner and Johnny Damon a bit better.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
2. LF <u>Alexander Crawford Presley</u>. Having only played 104 games in his young career, Alex actually doesn't have a similar player posted yet. But his 162-game average of 272/308/405 with 9 homers and 20 steals makes me think of <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsomo01.shtml" target="_blank">Mookie Wilson</a>.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
3. CF <u>Andrew Stefan McCutchen</u>. The Pirates biggest star has a lot of interesting players in his comps, including Ellis Burks, Bobby Bonds, Carlos Beltran and Chili Davis. But his most similar by age is <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithre06.shtml" target="_blank">Reggie Smith</a>, who played nearly 2000 games, averaging 165 hits and 26 home runs a year over his 17 year career. I think Andrew is capable of even more, but that would be pretty satisfactory as well.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
4. 3B <u>Pedro Manuel Alvarez</u>. Most think El Toro is capable of becoming one of the better power hitters of our generation, but wonder if he can put it all together. We've seen glimpses of a Ryan Howard type hitter, but right now, his comp is <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buechst01.shtml" target="_blank">Steve Buechele</a>. Somehow I think Pedro will hit more than 137 home runs.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
5. 2B <u>Neil Martin Walker</u>. The Hometown Kid's comp is <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/belliro01.shtml" target="_blank">Ronnie Belliard</a>? Yuck, looks like Neil has got some work to do, since his numbers have been in gradual decline mode since finishing fifth in the 2010 Rookie of the Year vote.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
6. 1B <u>Garrett Thomas Jones</u>. GI almost scored well enough to get Rick Ankiel as a comp, but instead drew <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stevele01.shtml" target="_blank">Lee Stevens</a>. While not an overwhelming comp, Stevens did hit 127 home runs over a six year period, which I think sounds like Jonesy's max. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
7. C <u>Rodrigo Richard Barajas</u>. Another fun ranking to look at is the Fan EloRater, which lists Rodrigo at #1594, right behind Ryan Theriot. But his comp (which accounts for positions) is <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/olivejo01.shtml" target="_blank">Joe Oliver</a>. His horrendous 1999 Pirate campaign notwithstanding, Joe did have a wee bit of pop in his bat, averaging 15 home runs over 162 games.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
8. SS <u>Clint Harold Barmes</u>. While visions of Tim Tuefel dance in Pirate fans' head, Clint's true comp is <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bressed01.shtml" target="_blank">Eddie Bressoud</a>, who in 1964 actually made an All-Star team, hit 20 home runs once, and finished 26th and 30th in the MVP voting of 1962 and 1964. And while that sounds impressive, it's not really.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Someday I might try this exercise for the pitchers, but for now I'll settle on pulling my toe nails out, one by one.</div>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-9145331797862933932012-05-01T14:00:00.000-04:002012-05-01T14:19:38.158-04:00Rabbit! Rabbit! for May<div style="text-align: justify;">As is customary on the first day of every month, all fans should proclaim "Rabbit! Rabbit!" for good luck.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">A new feature here at newpiratesfan, that I will surely only follow up on once or twice more before tiring of the blogging thing once again, is a monthly review and preview. For the review side, I will assess the Pirates hitting, pitching, and intangibles. For the preview side, I'll take a look at the month ahead, giving a prediction of the month-end record. I'm pretty much making this up as I go along, so let's review ...</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Hitting</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It's been pretty poor, save last night's explosion of 9 runs. MLB rankings in AVG (27), OBP (29), SLG (27), and Runs (30) pretty much prove that. Top to bottom: Alex Presley has been solid leading off, though his .313 OBP needs improvement. Jose Tabata had a brutal start, but hopefully is coming out of it, with a 364/391/455 line in his last seven games. Andrew McCutchen has had just an OK start to the season. His 302/351/372 line clearly shows he's getting on base, but with exactly zero triples or homers, is showing no power. Garrett Jones has had a decent April, .265/.275/.510 being pretty close to our expectations. He leads the team in OPS which is a bit surprising, and concerning. Neil Walker also had a horrific start, but could be heating up with a line 364/440/455 line in his last seven games. And then there is Pedro Alvarez. El Toro is leading the team in HR, RBI, SLG, has slowly gotten that batting average over the Mendoza Line and is starting to flash the 2010 version of Pedro we're all hoping for. While on pace for over 200K's, we can stomach that as long as he stays on pace for 30+ HR. Clint Barmes and Rod Barajas have sucked. Casey McGehee and Michael McKenry are the only bench guys showing why they should be getting any playing time.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Pitching</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It's been pretty awesome. MLB ranks: ERA (3), HR allowed (2), WHIP (7), BAA (6). Erik Bedard, James McDonald, Kevin Correia, Charlie Morton and A.J. Burnett all have ERA's under 3, which accounts for all but three of the Pirates' Games Started this year. Bedard, McDonald and AJ in particular are flashing swing-and-miss stuff, something sorely lacking in Pittsburgh for a long time. Jeff Karstens is on the shelf, his 4.50 ERA and .313 BAA the only blips on Ray Searage's staff. The bullpen has been pretty good as well, led by Joel Hanrahan, Jason Grilli and Juan Cruz.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Intangibles</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Bucs had a pretty tough schedule to start the year, with games against all three 2011 NL division winners, and road games against the Dodgers and Giants. They were able to weather the storm, and finish 10-12, <a href="http://www.newpiratesfan.blogspot.com/2012/04/relax-hits-will-come.html" target="_blank">just as I suspected</a> they would after starting 2-4. As always, Clint Hurdle has infuriated Bucco Nation with his propensity for bunting, but when your squad is only scoring 2.6 runs a game, you have to manufacture them somewhere. Obviously the pitching is keeping the Bucs in games, and hopefully this early season toughness, along with learning from the collapse of last summer will keep them relevant all summer.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Looking Ahead to May</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Lots of home games! 18 to be exact, versus only 10 on the road.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">3 @ St. Louis Cardinals (prediction of 1 win and 2 losses)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">3 vs Cincinnati Reds (2/1)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">3 vs Washington Nationals (1/2)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">3 vs Houston Astros (3/0)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">2 @ Miami Marlins (2/0)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">2 @ Washington Nationals (1/2)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">3 @ Detroit Tigers (1/2)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">3 vs New York Mets (2/1)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">3 vs Chicago Cubs (1/2)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">3 vs Cincinnati Reds (1/2)</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">This would give the Pirates a May record of 15-14, for a month-end 25-26.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Beat Em, Bucs!</div>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-19678521560212340362012-04-17T11:43:00.001-04:002012-04-17T11:45:33.453-04:00Shots from A.J. Burnett's Indy Rehab Start<div style="text-align: justify;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/6941185718/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="A.J. Burnett by tf-oto, on Flickr"><img alt="A.J. Burnett" height="266" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7082/6941185718_9c99f95fa2.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">AJ "delivers"</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
I was finally able to catch a ballgame last night, my Opening Day if you will. On a brisk evening, A.J. Burnett made his 2012 AAA rehab debut, with some pretty poor results. Of course, perhaps he was "working on things" but that just infuriates me. Majors or minors, we are all paying customers, and deserve to see our teams try to win. Not to say he wasn't trying to win, but I wouldn't consider 4IP, 7H, 5ER, 4BB, 0K, 3SB,2HR and an 11.25ERA a successful outing, good velocity or not. Even if 52 of his 81 pitches were for strikes, facing 21 batters in 4 innings, and walking the lead off batter in each of the first three innings, then a lead off home run in the fourth inning isn't very good either.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
Over 50 pictures are posted <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/sets/72157629473928574/" target="_blank">in this set</a> on my <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/" target="_blank">Flickr page</a>, please visit for more shots. But here are a few of the better ones I got from last night. Yes, I have a man crush on Starling Marte, what of it? <br />
<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/6941390400/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Lineup by tf-oto, on Flickr"><img alt="Lineup" height="400" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7041/6941390400_3fe1d978a7.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Monday's Lineup</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/6941190028/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Gorkyz Hernandez and Starling Marte by tf-oto, on Flickr"><img alt="Gorkyz Hernandez and Starling Marte" height="266" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7083/6941190028_1ab1cd24d6.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Gorkys and Starling tracking a flyball. With this kind of speed <br />
in LF and CF, the Indians pitchers have to relax just a little.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/7087241671/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Starling Marte by tf-oto, on Flickr"><img alt="Starling Marte" height="266" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7214/7087241671_11d4570912.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Starling Marte tracked this one down, right in front of me in dead CF.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/6941186662/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Eric Fryer holds on by tf-oto, on Flickr"><img alt="Eric Fryer holds on" height="266" src="http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5441/6941186662_74ace52382.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Eric Fryer holds on to the ball, he was out.</td></tr>
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</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/6941113092/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Eric Fryer, play at the plate by tf-oto, on Flickr"><img alt="Eric Fryer, play at the plate" height="266" src="http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5339/6941113092_98054fd4f0.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">But earlier, the runner beat him to the plate.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/7087205737/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Starling Marte by tf-oto, on Flickr"><img alt="Starling Marte" height="266" src="http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5465/7087205737_92914d4859.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A sight that NO Pirate fan wants to see, Starling Marte learning to play Hurdleball.<br />
(to be fair though, he was just bluffing for a bunt single)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/6941100924/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Starling Marte by tf-oto, on Flickr"><img alt="Starling Marte" height="266" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7072/6941100924_8ddd8b45c8.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Starling Marte, a half step from beating out a routine infield grounder</td></tr>
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</div>
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<br /></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/7087217373/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="sunset from centerfield by tf-oto, on Flickr"><img alt="sunset from centerfield" height="266" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7111/7087217373_93901f4a36.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Beautiful sunset, beautiful park, beautiful game (despite 9-2 loss)</td></tr>
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</div>
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<br />
Go New Pirates!</div>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-15507743980605090032012-04-13T10:23:00.000-04:002012-04-13T10:25:00.422-04:00Relax. The hits will come.<div style="text-align: justify;">
Yes, I'll concede the Pirates hitters are colder than a toilet seat in an igloo .. however, it's extraordinarily early. In fact, we've only played 3.7% of the games, and we're 2-4. One game from .500!</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
April 2012 (6 games) .199/.241/.293</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
April 2011 (27 games) .230/.303/.340</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
Yes, 11 runs in 6 games is awful, no getting around that. And professionals shouldn't make excuses for bad performance, but I'm no pro. The media has made much ado about the Pirates hitting woes, while at the same time conceding that the Bucs have the toughest April schedule in baseball (this is where I would have linked Buster Olney, but I don't pay for internet content, sorry ESPN, your content isn't worth it). How tough? The opposing pitchers:</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Roy Halladay (2.55 ERA last 5 Aprils, 2010 Cy Young)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Cliff Lee (2.66 ERA last 5 Aprils, 2008 Cy Young)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Vance Worley (2.81 ERA last year, 3rd for NL Rookie of the Year)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Clayton Kershaw (2.28 ERA last year, 2011 Cy Young)</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
And then they faced Chad Billingsley and Chris Capuano, who aren't exactly 4/5 starters. So the competition has been fierce. What other team would have fared that much better against the same rotation? Would the Tigers still be hitting .304 as a team? Would the Cardinals be slugging .514? Would the Padres have 35 walks? No, no, and no. Fortunately this year, just like last year, the Pirates pitching is keeping them close:</div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
April 2012 ERA 2.25</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
April 2011 ERA 3.64</div>
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So looking ahead for the rest of the month, we face these supposed juggernauts:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
San Francisco Giants (.245/.314/.421 and 5.58 ERA)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Arizona Diamondbacks (.215/.308/.400 and 2.95 ERA)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
St. Louis Cardinals (.301/.371/.514 and 2.93 ERA)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Colorado Rockies (.251/.309/.412 and 4.15 ERA)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Atlanta Braves (.212/.271/.340 and 4.32 ERA)</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Of these opponents, the only one that scares me right now are the Cardinals (who should be coming back down to earth soon anyhow). We should expect to take 2/3 from San Francisco and 3/4 from Atlanta, and see more nail-bitingly close games against Arizona and Colorado. Hopefully with a little luck against those teams, the Pirates could end the month near .500 (I'll guess 10-12) which would be great for a tough month.</div>
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Beat Em, Bucs!Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-41961297107272532972012-04-05T12:26:00.001-04:002012-04-06T09:46:23.294-04:00Opening DayWe Bucn!<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxYIT8m97VPqhNZ228UOMB8DYpjL_apxBX0vlWBO8Ksv34Az7gnYeG22Tj14OP05hwm4KYfk6fsTDUKtOPHHtjJiE11srn5nlilWDsXdA0ZO0L7ZEWDYV3XObVyLFzv0Jy94cMBi0vkGY/s640/blogger-image--117354862.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxYIT8m97VPqhNZ228UOMB8DYpjL_apxBX0vlWBO8Ksv34Az7gnYeG22Tj14OP05hwm4KYfk6fsTDUKtOPHHtjJiE11srn5nlilWDsXdA0ZO0L7ZEWDYV3XObVyLFzv0Jy94cMBi0vkGY/s400/blogger-image--117354862.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-52914629866376780422012-04-04T14:44:00.002-04:002012-04-04T14:44:53.948-04:002012 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhntiaL7tSp5qjj6ip0NLXjETYqrYQLfl1BM2Z41Cpac_jX81YzphA_9LLeCnBr5wwOE8wUxvMPa0Au5RwOMjvGmLGnpRvUpDFzuaCA6diWz979OTGBMgfyjINYQvqNPWNTpIt5qzqdxCU/s1600/beatembucs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhntiaL7tSp5qjj6ip0NLXjETYqrYQLfl1BM2Z41Cpac_jX81YzphA_9LLeCnBr5wwOE8wUxvMPa0Au5RwOMjvGmLGnpRvUpDFzuaCA6diWz979OTGBMgfyjINYQvqNPWNTpIt5qzqdxCU/s320/beatembucs.jpg" width="224" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: justify;">Before there was Buctown ...</span><br />
(image clipped<br />
from <a href="http://baseballjunkdrawer.blogspot.com/">Baseball Junk Drawer</a>)</td></tr>
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A <a href="http://www.newpiratesfan.blogspot.com/2012/03/2012-preview-nl-central.html">month ago</a> I predicted 83-79 and a third place finish, and promised an Opening Day preview post ...<br />
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The beauty of this game is that it debuts in the Spring when new life is all around us, and concludes in the Autumn, when the leaves begin to turn and fall. As many a better author than I have waxed, this game is the perfect analogy of the seasons. The long Summer brings sunny days, drought, and stormy weather - all events that every single team rich and poor will experience over the next six months. And for every fan, Spring brings the hope that this year might be different for their team. So as April arrives, we all hope that this is the year the Pirates turn the corner. And it very well can be, as all 30 teams are contenders on Opening Day, all exactly 0-0. And while nobody actually believes the Pirates are going to win it all in 2012, or even sniff the playoffs, what needs to happen for success in 2012 is just winning more than losing. While the club may be flawed, I think they're at least just as good as they are bad, and vice-versa. A .500 record is not out of the question in a division that lost Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, weakening two of the supposed Top 3 teams. Add the pretty bad teams in Chicago and Houston and what I consider an overrated Cincinnati squad, and you have the Bucs square in the middle, at .500. My rally cry all season long will be the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sDrO4vkk3I">"Beat 'Em Bucs" tune</a> from the 1960 squad. Because the Bucs are going all the way, all the way, all the way. Yes, the Bucs are going all the way, all the way to average. My crystal ball says the Bucs will win #81 in New York on September 27. Then, we'll get swept by the NL Central Champion Reds, and then finally, #82 and #83 come against the fourth-place Braves. No 20th consecutive losing streak in 2012.<br />
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<b>First Base: Grade B</b></div>
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Like many a fan, I too wanted the Pirates to upgrade at this position. While nobody in their right mind thought Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder were coming aboard (although I loved the idea of offering Prince a 2/$50M deal so he could get another payday, and so other free agents would take us seriously in the future), there were some halfway decent options out there. Truthfully, I wanted Derrek Lee back but since he didn't want to come back ... good riddance. Garrett Jones can be respectable first baseman with power at times. Casey McGehee was signed as his platoon partner (despite only playing in 11 games at 1B prior to this Spring). Obviously this was a signing to push Pedro. While McGehee's 2011 season was awful, I'd expect him to come closer to the 2009 or 2010 version given enough at bats. Having had a torrid Spring Training with the big club (his first), Matt Hague has done everything he can to prove he should at least be given a chance to go north and be Jones' platoon partner. And while Spring stats don't mean anything to the naysayers, the fact is he has excelled at every level in his minor league career, and is probably capable of hitting .290 with some gap power. He's the wild card here, perhaps the guy who could help keep the position warm for Hoosier Alex Dickerson. #freematthague<br />
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<b>Second Base: Grade B-</b></div>
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Neil Walker has no competition, it's just a question of which Pittsburgh Kid shows up. Will it be the 2010 version that came out of nowhere to finish fifth for the Rookie of the Year award (like Matt Hague could do), or will it be the 2011 version who regressed almost everywhere except defensively? My guess is that it will be a little bit of both. I expect he'll show more power, but I don't see him hitting .296 again. I would be perfectly happy with a .280 with 15-20 homers. Until we know for sure which Neil Walker we're getting, I hope the front office holds off on signing him long term. </div>
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<b>Shortstop: Grade B-</b></div>
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While the grade might seem high for a guy whose similarity scores on Baseball Reference bring up such illustrious talent like Tim Teufel and Pokey Reese, the point here is that I think he'll be better than Ronny Cedeno. His glove his a welcome addition for a staff that needs to depend on ground ball outs, and some consistency is desperately needed. Also, having played for Clint Hurdle before might help him find his groove again at the plate. Couldn't hurt, anyhow.</div>
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<b>Third Base: Grade C</b></div>
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I still believe in Pedro Alvarez. He was badly rushed up to The Show, exactly one year too soon. But I'm still hoping he'll pull an Alex Gordon in 2012, having showed a glimpse of what he can be in an electrifying 2010 debut. We all know now that he really should have spent all of 2010 and the first half of 2011 in Indianapolis, so he could grow defensively (or possibly have learned 1B), and mature at the plate. Similar sluggers (we hope) like Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard all were <a href="http://www.newpiratesfan.blogspot.com/2011/08/pedro-alvarez.html">seasoned properly at the lower levels</a> so they were ready for success when they go called up. Instead, Pedro was shell shocked last year while battling injuries, and now everyone is saying this is make or break for him. There's a part of me that wants him to start the year in Triple-A Indianapolis, mashing the ball with Starling Marte, and then be ready for a mid season call up (perhaps McGehee does well also, then gets flipped at the trade deadline to make room)? But Neal's balls are brass enough for that, which is why he'll be starting in Pittsburgh again, assuming they don't pull a phantom injury excuse. He should be platooning with McGehee at the start of the season, riding the pine against the tough lefties until he can show something other than 0-3 with 3K's on his stat sheet. His upside is the moon, but the club still needs to win, so ease him in gently. A Pedro/Casey platoon could easily produce .260/25/90. </div>
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<b>Left Field: Grade B</b></div>
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I like Alex Presley, don't get me wrong. The kid can hit and run, but he's not the future. We all saw this Spring that the future was Starling Marte. I'm not sure Marte is going to be ready to come up this summer however (September call up seems more likely), and Alex is going to want to continue proving himself at the big league level. I think down the line, he would make a perfect fourth outfielder for the Bucs, as he has the speed to man any of the OF positions. But instead we have Nate McLouth, who most likely will prove to be very underwhelming as he is a shell of his former All-Star, Gold Glove self. My hope is Alex is a Bucco in 2013, but perhaps he gets traded to make room for Marte, a la the McLouth/McCutchen dealio a few years back. Meanwhile, Alex could very well hit .300 with gap power, setting the table for ...<br />
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<b>Center Field: Grade A</b><br />
Andrew McCutchen, newly minted budding superstar. As long as we get the Andrew who hits and steals we'll have an All-Star. If we get the Andrew trying to hit home runs all the time, we might get the second half Andrew who struggled. My guess is we'll get more of the first half version, something like .290 with 25 bombs and 40 steals. We'll have to wait until 2013 for him to join the 30/30 club.<br />
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<b>Right Field: Grade A-</b><br />
I freely admit that I'm biased here, as Jose Tabata is my favorite Pirate. If you haven't read Tom Singer's article on Jose this Spring, <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120319&content_id=27411956&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb">just do it</a>. Having fallen from the Yankees graces as a prospect, Mini-Manny was thrown into the epic Marte/Nady trade as an afterthought. With Clemente tattooed blazed across his chest, he now gets to live his dream, manning RF in Pittsburgh for quite a few years. I won't even get into the crazy wife/kidnapping issue but to say you can't help but feel for the guy. Now that he has the security of a contract, look for Tabby to dig into RF, hit .300, steal 40 bags, and play stellar D.<br />
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<b>Catcher: Grade C-</b><br />
Until Tony Sanchez gets here (yes, I still think he's our long term answer), then blah .... Rob Barajas is an improvement over Ryan It Gets By Doumit. He has a lesser bat than Doumit, but a much better glove. He might even be able to handle a pitching staff, and throw a runner out once in awhile. If he hits 15-20 bombs, and plays 130 games then it's money very well spent.<br />
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<b>Starting Pitching: Grade B-</b><br />
The first few months of 2011 showed what a decent pitching staff could do for the Bucs and the City of Pittsburgh. Genuine excitement of a possible division crown and breaking the streak. However, it was all smoke and mirrors as we know now. Fortunately the front office got the memo, and bolstered the staff further by adding Erik Bedard and A.J. Burnett in the fold. Bedard should at least break even with the newly Cubbed Paul Maholm, and hopefully if healthy will actually exceed Average Paul. A.J. assuming he can see straight should also help tremendously by knocking out the poorest performer of the rest of the group: Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens. Of these four, I expect Karstens to struggle the most, and end up back in his spot-start, long reliever role. And of these four, I'm expecting McDonald to be the best, as I'm looking for this to be the break out year for him (similar to what Morton flashed last year). I think the rotation will end up looking like #1 AJ #2 McDonald #3 Bedard #4 Morton and #5 Correia, which is to say, pretty good.<br />
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<b>Relief Pitching: Grade B</b><br />
It all starts at the end with All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan. As long as he's healthy and effective the bullpen should be fine. Setting him up is a plethora of options, such as Jason Grilli, Chris Resop, Evan Meek, Juan Cruz, Chris Leroux, lefties Tony Watson and Daniel Moskos, and the also-ran of the starters, my guess being Karstens. Resop should be solid in the setup 8th inning role, unless Meek regains his velocity and command, in which case he's the 8th inning guy, and Resop the 7th inning guy. The bullpen is always a jumble, and when this is published on Opening Day I'm sure one or two will be wrong. Ultimately the key to a solid bullpen is a solid rotation - the less work the pen has, the more effective they are. If Bryan Morris does well in the closer role in Indianapolis, look for talk of trading Hanrahan for a bounty in July. As valuable as he is, closers can grow on trees.<br />
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<b>Coaching: Grade C</b><br />
This is Clint Hurdle's team now, his honeymoon is over. Much as been made about Hurdle's game calling, primarily bunting way too much. Hopefully he can play a but more hands off this year, fill out lineups, motivate young guys when needed and just let them hit. There's actually plenty of potential in the lineup to score runs, and it doesn't mean leaving outs at the plate just to move a guy over that could potentially steal a base. Assuming the lineup goes Presley, Tabata, McCutchen ... that's a lot of speed and gap power. There should be no reason for the three of these guys to lay a bunt down before the 8th inning unless they're bunting for a hit. On the pitching side of things, coach Ray Searage did a wonderful job with Charlie Morton last year, so look for him to do miraculous things with this year's breakout pitcher, James McDonald.<br />
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<b>Awards:</b><br />
MVP: Andrew McCutchen<br />
CY James McDonald<br />
Rookie of the Year: Matt Hague<br />
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<b>Beat 'Em, Bucs!</b></div>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-68176983394269213212012-04-03T22:46:00.001-04:002012-04-03T22:55:31.249-04:00Andrew McCutchen, Lego<div style="font-size: 0.8em; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 10px 0; padding: 0;">
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/7043777271/" title="Andrew McCutchen, Lego"><img alt="Andrew McCutchen, Lego by tf-oto" src="http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5348/7043777271_90730a5258.jpg" /></a><br />
<span style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/7043777271/">Andrew McCutchen, Lego</a>, a photo by <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/">tf-oto</a> on Flickr.</span></div>
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Perhaps you can recall this <a href="http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/09238/993268-63.stm" target="_blank">iconic moment</a> in Andrew McCutchen's career from August of 2009, when the young Bucs star hit a walk off home run against Brad Lidge of the Phillies in his rookie campaign ... let's hope Opening Weekend has some of the same magic!</div>
<br />Beat Em, Bucs!Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-22001364005235810962012-03-30T11:34:00.000-04:002012-03-30T11:34:47.316-04:002012 MLB PicksSince I'm done with my divisional picks, time to put together the playoff teams and see how this all plays out:<br />
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<b><u>American League</u></b><br />
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AL MVP: Mark Teixeira<br />
AL CY: Justin Verlander<br />
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1. Angels, West Champions (97 wins)<br />
2. Rays, East Champions (94 wins)<br />
3. Tigers, Central Champions (92 wins)<br />
4. Rangers, Wild Card #1 (94 wins)<br />
5. Yankees, Wild Card #2 (92 wins)<br />
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Yankees over Rangers ... Angels over Yankees ... Rays over Tigers ... Angels over Rays<br />
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<u><b>National League</b></u><br />
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NL MVP: Joey Votto<br />
NL CY: Tim Lincecum<br />
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1. Phillies, East Champions (98 wins)<br />
2. Reds, Central Champions (94 wins)<br />
3. Dodgers, West Champions (91 wins)<br />
4. Giants, Wild Card #1 (90 wins)<br />
5. Brewers, Wild Card #2 (88 wins)<br />
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Giants over Brewers ... Phillies over Giants ... Reds over Dodgers ... Phillies over Reds<br />
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And then in the Fall Classic, Angels over Phillies in 7.Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-46110188846642605972012-03-30T11:11:00.000-04:002012-03-30T11:12:18.570-04:002012 Preview AL EAST<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZHsiQ9OjOOtYdiOCW-2MbpG5G9gB3jxQqOFZaXJ19R8Ov01CsxbzwCYCjnK5S0hO2fcAYIQlPxk94t61BvZKwOpXRZWQos3kmrrZnT36MxO3l88xkjZevCWQW2Fi7rZOWaMrWSmiqcys/s1600/Rays.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZHsiQ9OjOOtYdiOCW-2MbpG5G9gB3jxQqOFZaXJ19R8Ov01CsxbzwCYCjnK5S0hO2fcAYIQlPxk94t61BvZKwOpXRZWQos3kmrrZnT36MxO3l88xkjZevCWQW2Fi7rZOWaMrWSmiqcys/s200/Rays.gif" width="200" /></a></div>
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I'm not sure what's in the water in Tampa Bay, but you can be sure it has magical properties because this team continues to stay in the upper tier of this division with the big spenders of Boston and New York. Their franchise is the model that all low/mid organizations strive for. With a wealth of young talent and a manager that seems to get the best out of everyone, it's a real shame that their fan base isn't stronger. On the arms of the fantastic young rotation, they should win this competitive division.</div>
WINS 94 MVP Evan Longoria CY David Price<br />
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Ugh, of the big money teams, this is the one I want to finish fourth (actually last would be even better). Oh, how I miss the Yankees of the 1980's ... The lineup basically has no discernible flaws, and the rotation is top notch as always. What keeps them from winning is probably too few at bats for Alex Rodriguez, who they need to treat like fine china for years to insure their investment doesn't shatter.</div>
WINS 92 MVP Mark Teixeira CY C.C. Sabathia<br />
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Eventually the Blue Jays have to break through the top three, right? The rotation is underrated, the lineup is solid, and by flying under the radar the Jays look to nab the final wild card position as the third place team. Wouldn't a one-game playoff between New York and Toronto be great? So, screw it, let's pick them third.</div>
WINS 91 MVP Jose Bautista CY Brandon Morrow<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUaMjYROW62eHtbjTQPE3z4gP_hP3P3AQ-34SBur3TaGjznH5-R3Xr6ccKwPpTcJn6aE0AqOX8l1gVApLcLMKvWx2KrtiJpP8p2aDPYvFz_DEb6icu-ineVttIAmCJVaLn1Zb2G300AHU/s1600/7159.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUaMjYROW62eHtbjTQPE3z4gP_hP3P3AQ-34SBur3TaGjznH5-R3Xr6ccKwPpTcJn6aE0AqOX8l1gVApLcLMKvWx2KrtiJpP8p2aDPYvFz_DEb6icu-ineVttIAmCJVaLn1Zb2G300AHU/s200/7159.gif" width="200" /></a><br />
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Of course, the "Elite Media" would love to have a one-game playoff between Boston and New York just so they could rehash the Bucky Bleeping Dent game over and over again. But aren't we all tired of this by now? The Red Sox still have a heck of a lineup, but their pitching is actually suspect. And since last year's epic collapse, nobody is expecting much out of them, including myself. Which of course means they'll be 2012 World Champions. Ugh, hopefully not ...</div>
WINS 87 MVP Adrian Gonzalez CY Jon Lester<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOnZDL_JJeHGq9fQCcRsfQDWLXZWx52-Y7DA22vQQ9KkJyVPh2STIWT5IYBCENHZZbW_zzF_XcN9AeNBLUdzGTKcErXiw_GZxqRhKnwRRfblgHoyCghBYgZHKWu94W0vnnX4vtQg_OJq8/s1600/Orioles.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOnZDL_JJeHGq9fQCcRsfQDWLXZWx52-Y7DA22vQQ9KkJyVPh2STIWT5IYBCENHZZbW_zzF_XcN9AeNBLUdzGTKcErXiw_GZxqRhKnwRRfblgHoyCghBYgZHKWu94W0vnnX4vtQg_OJq8/s200/Orioles.gif" width="200" /></a><br />
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It's been so long since the Orioles were relevant, I'm actually feeling sorry for them. And really, there is little hope on the horizon, especially in this loaded division. But they should score a few runs, and make some games interesting. But they should also give up a whole lot more, as the pitching is putrid.</div>
WINS 61 MVP Nick Markakis CY Chris Tillman<br />
<br />Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-58930583116210650122012-03-26T08:03:00.002-04:002012-03-26T08:04:14.539-04:002012 Preview AL CENTRAL<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Adding Prince Fielder puts them over the top. Oh, they were already there, at least in this division. Despite the fact that there really isn't anyone in the division I see competing with them this Summer, the Tigers still are a damn good team. The lineup has some holes, but Fielder and Miguel Cabrera should provide plenty of offense. The pitching staff has a chance to be quite special, and will carry them all year.</div>
WINS 92 MVP Prince Fielder CY Justin Verlander<br />
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I must be crazy, right? Probably, but if I can pick the Pirates to win 83 and finish in 3rd place, surely the Royals can surprise some folks too. By the way, ever notice how 2008's #2 draft pick Pedro Alvarez' career arc seems to be mirroring 2005's #2 draft pick Alex Gordon? They both made a big splash, injuries and struggles derailed them, and faced demotion to the minors, and then resurrection in Gordon's case in 2011 and hopefully in Pedro's in 2012. This team should hit a ton, but because of their lack of starting pitching depth won't be able to stay close to the Tigers. Really, there isn't a team in this division I like more right now, so hell, let's give KC second place.</div>
WINS 82 MVP Alex Gordon CY Jonathan Sanchez<br />
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You know, I wish Minnesota and Ryan Doumit all the best in their future together, but if Joe Mauer even sniffs an injury, I see this ending in tears. As long as Mauer and Justin Morneau stay healthy, the Twins should be relevant again, even if Carl Pavano is still their ace. If Francisco Liriano can bounce back to his 2010 form, then again, the Twins can be competitive again. I fear those ifs are too plentiful, and I'm just not buying them this year. But they won't be as bad as 2011's team.</div>
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WINS 80 MVP Joe Mauer CY Carl Pavano</div>
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Stop me if you've heard this before. The Indians are a good, young up-and-coming club, but are at least a year or two away. I was very tempted to switch them with the Royals in this post, since they finished second last year (really, they did), but they're still close. The rotation is actually pretty decent if Roberto Hernandez Heredia pitches, and Ubaldo Jimenez returns to form. My guess is one of the two doesn't happen.</div>
WINS 78 MVP Carlos Santana CY Justin Masterson<br />
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Wow it's looking ugly on the South Side of Chicago. The White Sox should be due for a tumble soon, unless of course Alex Rios, Adam Dunn and Jake Peavy all return to form, in which case third place isn't out of the question. Despite the loss of Mark Buehrle, the rotation still could be quite good, but it won't be enough to mask a pretty paltry lineup. Time for rebuilding mode I think.</div>
WINS 64 MVP Paul Konerko CY John DanksTony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-61713581972891880352012-03-25T14:44:00.002-04:002012-03-25T14:44:52.602-04:00The 25 Man Dilemma<div style="text-align: justify;">
There always seems to be a lot of consternation this time of year over the 25 man roster, but this year I think it's pretty easy, despite all the hand wringing going on. Assuming that everyone is healthy, and there is no trade for a catcher and/or a new lefty pitcher, here are the 25 men I believe the Bucs should bring north for Opening Day:</div>
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<b><u>Position Guys (13)</u></b></div>
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Garrett Jones</div>
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Neil Walker</div>
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Clint Barmes</div>
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Pedro Alvarez</div>
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Alex Presley</div>
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Andrew McCutchen</div>
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Jose Tabata</div>
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Rod Barajas</div>
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Casey McGehee</div>
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Matt Hague</div>
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Mike McKenry</div>
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Nate McLouth</div>
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Yamaico Navarro</div>
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Given Pedro's struggles, I think McGehee should be platooning with him against lefties at the very least, because the last thing we need from Pedro is a .100 average with 40 K's in April. It's also the last thing Pedro needs for his confidence, since Neal Huntington today said he's guaranteed a roster spot if healthy. And let's be clear, McGehee is a <b>third</b> baseman, having spent 92% of his career at the hot corner (as opposed to 11 games and 22 innings at 1B). He simply is not a credible first baseman platoon option, and Matt Hague is, which is why he should be getting the nod over Josh Harrison. Likewise, I don't expect Matt Hague to be playing 3B, unless it's an emergency situation. And as far as the knock on him being "not a prospect because he's over the hill at 26", how about giving him the chance now, since this is obviously the twilight of his career (I hope the sarcasm was noted by the reader).</div>
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Erik Bedard</div>
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James McDonald</div>
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Charlie Morton</div>
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A.J. Burnett</div>
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Joel Hanrahan</div>
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Chris Resop</div>
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Jason Grilli</div>
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Chris Leroux</div>
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Daniel Moskos</div>
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Since the first few weeks don't necessitate a fifth starter, Correia spot starts until Morton and Burnett are healthy, and then he becomes the long man. And while Evan Meek could easily replace one of the lefties of Moskos and Watson, Hurdle loves his southpaws, and Meek would be better served closing in Indianapolis. Brad Lincoln is another option for the bullpen, but my guess is he gets sent down, then comes up as soon as someone gets injured.</div>
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There, wasn't that easy?</div>
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Beat Em, Bucs!</div>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-61891208130760478852012-03-21T07:58:00.001-04:002012-03-21T07:58:54.621-04:002012 Preview AL WEST<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Completely unoriginal pick, I know. But when you add Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson in the off season, you're going to be the favorites. They easily now have the best rotation in the American League, with Wilson joining Jared Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana. Good grief. The lineup still has holes, but they should easily score enough runs to win the division.</div>
WINS 97 MVP Albert Pujols CY Jared Weaver<br />
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Is Yu Darvish the guy who gets the Rangers over the top, or does he simply replace a good not great pitcher in C.J. Wilson that left via free agency? My guess is the latter. This team will still score a ton of runs, but I'm not sure their pitching is good enough to beat the Angels. That being said, I'm pretty sure this will be a horse race all summer long, with the Wild Card as a consolation prize.</div>
WINS 94 MVP Nelson Cruz CY Derek Holland<br />
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And so begin the also-rans in the American League West. Just imagine how this division will look next year when the Astros get here? Much like the AL East looked before Tampa became relevant, two top tier teams, and three teams with little or no hope of reaching the glass ceiling. I like the Mariners' chances of hitting the ball better than the Athletics, even with the insane move of taking Ichiro out of hitting lead off.</div>
WINS 73 MVP Ichiro Suzuki CY Felix Hernandez<br />
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I think it's going to be a long summer in Oakland, as the pitching and hitting is particularly weak after an off season of gutting the roster to add prospects. And I don't expect Yoenis Cespedes to exactly set the world on fire in his first season, as he'll take his knocks like everyone else does. Can Brandon Moss and his Spring 1.392 OPS make the club? For Oakland's sake, I hope not ...</div>
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WINS 66 MVP Josh Reddick CY Dallas Braden</div>
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<br /></div>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-65125701985912171272012-03-15T16:09:00.000-04:002012-03-15T16:09:00.793-04:002012 Preview NL EAST<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The default pick is the National League Yankees. Should the team need to address any needs in July, they'll add the top talent available, regardless of prospects and money. I'm almost surprised they didn't sign Carlos Pena, just to make the first few Howard-less months more palatable, only to flip him in July. The rotation is filthy, and should once again have three legit Cy Young candidates, overshadowing any lineup deficiencies. It's a great era to be a Phillies fan, even if they now employ Grade A D-Bag Jonathan Papelbon.</div>
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WINS 98 MVP Chase Utley CY Cole Hamels</div>
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It should be an annoyingly entertaining season in South Florida this year. With Ozzie Guillen playing ringmaster to the reality misfits Jose Reyes, Logan Morrison, Carlos Zambrano and Hanley Ramirez, there should be no shortage of inane Baseball Tonight coverage. But below the veneer is a pretty decent team, who will probably be in the thick of the Wild Card race.</div>
WINS 87 MVP Giancarlo Stanton CY Mark Buehrle<br />
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Eventually they should start rising in the standings, and I'll guess it's this year. The lineup is still not playoff material, but their rotation should keep them around the .500 mark all year. Perhaps they'll call up Boy Wonder Bryce Harper up mid-season to boost the offense, but they'd probably be better served giving him a look in September, then planning on starting him Opening Day 2013. Besides, with a serious case of Philly-Envy, the front office isn't shy on making bold moves around the deadline should they be close.</div>
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WINS 80 MVP Ryan Zimmerman CY Gio Gonzalez</div>
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Seems like every time I give up on the Braves' chances, they win the division, sorry Phillie fans. Gone are the days when an average lineup could be carried by a stellar rotation. But in a couple years, look out. There are some quality arms right around the corner, but until they're here it'll be a struggle.</div>
WINS 78 MVP Brian McCann CY Tommy Hanson<br />
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WINS 64 MVP Jason Bay CY R.A. DickeyTony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-70550635468609315032012-03-12T14:31:00.001-04:002012-03-12T14:35:43.757-04:002012 Preview NL WEST<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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To me, this division is up for grabs as each of the top 3 have their faults. The Dodgers certainly have holes, but they'll fill them at the trade deadline. But what the other two teams don't have is a heart of the order like the Dodgers do with Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and James Loney. Couple that with a very respectable rotation and I see Los Angeles squeaking it out late in the season.</div>
WINS 91 MVP Matt Kemp CY Clayton Kershaw<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrbhr6vkz9u4nzmNOmab1RSEhdlfLc_V5o5YOeD70NyiNxI8mLvlCcnaij89Ygxbm_vL6TXULu69iJ5zh5q5OlKgnpY-30llMVV7rF0jsqv9ttpNiPikpe_H_VSs2TYsucdd69NxkBTwA/s1600/Giants.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrbhr6vkz9u4nzmNOmab1RSEhdlfLc_V5o5YOeD70NyiNxI8mLvlCcnaij89Ygxbm_vL6TXULu69iJ5zh5q5OlKgnpY-30llMVV7rF0jsqv9ttpNiPikpe_H_VSs2TYsucdd69NxkBTwA/s200/Giants.gif" width="200" /></a></div>
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Their rotation will only carry them so far as they have almost no hitting. I doubt Melky Cabrera is the answer, and until they upgrade the roster (or let Brandon Belt play) they'll be close but no cigar. Not resigning Carlos Beltan will be shown to be a huge mistake. Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez healthy for full seasons will go a long way, but won't be enough to get them to the playoffs.</div>
WINS 90 MVP Buster Posey CY Tim Lincecum<br />
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The defending NL West champs should be good for quite awhile, but will experience growing pains in 2012. They boast a good young lineup, and a very underrated rotation, but something will go wrong. Maybe it's injuries, maybe it's regressions. Everything on a stat sheet says they should win the division, which is why my gut says they don't.</div>
WINS 83 MVP Justin Upton CY Daniel Hudson<br />
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The Rockies have too much hitting to be in the cellar this year, but they're only an injury or two away from it. Their pitching staff is horrible having lost Ubaldo Jiminez and Huston Street last year, and should give up a ton of runs this year. At least the fans will get their money's worth as the Rockies should lose a lot of 9-7 games.<br />
WINS 72 MVP Troy Tulowitzki CY Rafael Betancourt<br />
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About the best I can say about the Padres is that I'll get to visit Petco in May. And I'm very excited to buy a t-shirt with one of the greatest logos ever (above). Other than that, the squad is a jumble of young prospects and filler veterans that will take at least a couple of years to sort out.<br />
WINS 66 MVP Yonder Alonso CY Huston Street<br />
<br />Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-6352159812373652972012-03-07T09:59:00.000-05:002012-03-07T09:59:14.443-05:002012 Preview NL CENTRAL<br />
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I really hate this pick to win the division, because I really don't believe they're nearly as good as others think they are. They gave up an awful lot to get Mat Latos, which should make the rotation better, but I would hardly qualify it as an "all in" move. They have some great pieces obviously in Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce, but their pitching still isn't championship caliber.</div>
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WINS 94 MVP Joey Votto CY Mat Latos </div>
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The loss of their 268lb first baseman is going to have a gigantic impact on this team. Cryan Eva Braun will still put up MVP* numbers, but will not be able to carry the team with Aramis Ramirez as his protection. The pitching staff is good enough to keep them in the wild card hunt. But if Zack Greinke's inning totals continue to tumble as they have the last three years, they could fall even further.</div>
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WINS 88 MVP Cryan Eva Braun CY Zack Greinke</div>
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Yes, this is the year the Pirates reach 82. Actually 83-79. They'll struggle a bit in April, then turn the jets on in May, June and July. August will again be a struggle, but then it will come down to the last week of the season. #81 comes at the Mets on September 27, then we'll all freak out as the Reds come into Pittsburgh, sweep the Bucs, and clinch the NL Central crown. Just as we're all ready to jump off the Clemente Bridge, wins #82 and #83 come on October 1 and October 3 against the Braves. Full preview on Opening Day.</div>
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WINS 83 MVP Andrew McCutchen CY James McDonald</div>
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This is my gamble pick. On paper, they should be able to withstand the loss of the greatest right-handed hitter since Hammerin' Hank. Their pitching staff is still the best in the division, and Carlos Beltran should help ease the pain for the defending World Champions. But I don't know, maybe it's the fact that unproven Mike Matheny is trying to replace future hall of famer Tony LaRussa. That might be the Cards' biggest loss.</div>
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WINS 79 MVP Yadier Molina CY Chris Carpenter</div>
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Even the legend that is Paul Maholm isn't going to be enough to get the Cubs out of next to last place in 2012. But I fear that the new regime of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are going to make this team into a juggernaut someday. Heck, if they can actually trade Carlos Zambrano and get a decent return, imagine what they'll be able to do with a revamped farm system and Alfonso Soriano off the books ... in 2015.</div>
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WINS 71 MVP Starlin Castro CY Matt Garza</div>
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At least we have one more year of beating up on the Astros before they move to the AL West in 2013. This franchise is a mess right now, with little major or minor league talent to draw on. Look for them to try and dump their last useful trading chip in Wandy Rodriguez in July. The only other positive thing I have to add is that they have the young SS I wish the Pirates picked up in Jed Lowrie. We'll miss you Houston ...</div>
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WINS 52 MVP Uh, Jordan Schafer? CY Wandy Rodriguez</div>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-74284833193006372222012-03-05T13:02:00.001-05:002012-03-05T13:02:23.183-05:00A Tale of B's and 3's<div style="text-align: justify;">
I've always been intrigued by curses, and as an ex-Red Sox fanatic, I know a thing or two about going through the pain and agony by which these curses manifest themselves. In 2003, Boston almost got to the World Series, if it wasn't for Aaron Boone. In 2004, they broke the Curse of the Bambino, winning their first World Series since 1918, a span of 86 years. '86 is also the year they were last in their Series, the infamous Buckner series (although Bob Stanley was really to blame). In 2005, The Chicago White Sox broke the Curse of the Black Sox Scandal, winning their first World Series since 1919, also a span of 86 years. Oddly, both Sox Curses were founded in consecutive years: the gambling scandal of 1919 and the selling off of Babe Ruth in 1920. Oh, and the team the Red Sox beat in 1918 and almost met in 2003? Another Chicago team, the Cubs, who won their last championship in 1908, courtesy of Merkle's Boner. With two curses on them since (The Billy Goat and Steve Bartman) it's looking pretty hopeless on the northside of the Windy City. Notice the B Theme? Boston, Bambino, Babe, Buckner, Boone. Black Sox, banned. Boner, Billy and Bartman.</div>
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What does this have to do with the Pirates? Well, of course we remember the last time the Pirates had a winning season, now 20 years ago. The 3 year window of 1990-1992 are littered with B's. In 1990, Sid Bream, Jay Bell, Bobby Bonilla and Barry Bonds won 95 games and lost in the NLCS to the Cincinnati Reds. After the season, Sid Bream was granted free agency. In 1991, the Bucs won 98 games, but lost in the NLCS to Bream's Atlanta Braves. After the season Bobby Bonilla was granted free agency. In 1992, the Bucs won 96 games, only to lose again to Bream's Braves in epic fashion. Guess who was granted free agency pastures after the season? Yep, Barry Bonds. And the Bucs haven't had a winning season since. The last Killer B left in 1993? Jay Bell, who wore #3 for the Bucs (and then wore #33 for the 2001 World Series Champion Arizona Diamondbacks). OK, this is getting creepy ...</div>
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In 1927, the Pirates lost the The World Series to the New York Yankees. Fast forward 33 years, and the Bucs beat the Yankees in the Fall Classic in 1960. In 1979, the Bucs beat the Baltimore Orioles for the 5th (and last World Championship). Fast forward 33 years ... to this year. The year the Pirates try again to break a curse, the .500 plateau. So what did the front office do to Reverse the Curse, and bring winning baseball back to Pittsburgh this year? They went out and got a bunch of B's, naturally. Erik Bedard, Rod Barajas, Clint Barmes and A.J. Burnett. Crazier things have happened ...</div>
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<br />Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3859334239088163100.post-45380890433681526022012-02-17T17:11:00.001-05:002012-02-17T17:11:49.458-05:00Bucs Nab AJ Burnett<div style="text-align: justify;">
For a couple of likely-miss minor leaguers and cash, the Pirates acquired <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burnea.01.shtml">Allan James Burnett</a> today, pending Sir Selig's approval. Yes, the New York Yankees actually dumped salary on Pittsburgh. This is a great move for the Bucs because, sadly right now this is the only way for the team to find talent. Having been spurned by Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt, the front office had to find a way to add to the club. It's a classic catch 22; can't get better talent without winning, can't win without better talent. So now for the better part of April, the Bucs can get by with four starters (AJ, Erik Bedard, James McDonald and Jeff Karstens) and hopefully <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tf-oto/5638411840/">Electric Stuff One</a> will be ready to go by then. Certainly better than if Kevin Correia or Brad Lincoln was penciled in. Now KC can rightfully be the 6th starter/emergency guy which is what Karstens used to be.</div>
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Days until pitchers and catchers report = 1</div>
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Days until first Spring Training game = 15</div>
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Days until Opening Day = 48</div>
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Welcome back baseball! Let's Go Bucs!</div>Tony Framptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16514705653511872860noreply@blogger.com0